clint4liberty
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Do not believe the polls. No one has even voted yet. Let us keep working and plugging along. The race has not even started yet.
'Best Pollster in Politics' releases final Iowa poll tonight at 5:30.
- Thread starter laissez faire
- Start date
I'm going to wait for the results on Monday. I'm not so sure about Trump....Cruz definitely has support and no one cares about his flaws or lies or treachery...Rubio, I'm not so sure about him...I don't think he will do as well as predicted unless the anti Cruz movement really accelerates, Carson is dead in the water, but who knows. All I can say as I am not that impressed with the Iowa voter. They have all of this opportunity to learn first hand about candidates but they are just as much in the dark as most people. I do not think they deserve to have the first dibs at the electoral process.
opinionatedfool
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Yeah, that's what I've heard about his daughter too. Probably hard for rand to focus on campaigning sometimes to because of this.
trey4sports
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There's 3 tickets out of Iowa...
speciallyblend
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Some back-of-the-napkin thoughts:
I have trouble seeing the GOP turnout much higher than 2012 (~120k) and 2008 (~120k). Based on the DMR poll, assuming 130k turnout, Paul's 5% = 6,500 votes. That also means Trump gets 36k votes and Cruz 30k.
I think 6,500 is an extremely low number given what we know about Rand's outreach.
Making some assumptions:
- 90% of Ron's 2008 voters vote for Rand = 10,500
- 33% of the new Ron 2012 voters vote for Rand = 4,700
- 75% of the 10k Students for Rand turn out = 7,500
I can see Rand getting no less than 22,700 votes.
Some factors at play that can break DMR's prediction:
- Cruz losing voters due to debate, TV talking heads, and weekend gaffes = Cruz does worse than polls
- Paul having an unexpected rise in support post-debate = Paul does better than polls
- Rubio being inflated by talking heads = Rubio does better than polls
- Trump supporters taking for granted his inevitability + campaign's (relatively) weak ground game = Trump does worse
In the end, who knows? I'm hoping for top 2 or 3, otherwise we lose the chance for Rand to influence the narrative going into NH.
I have trouble seeing the GOP turnout much higher than 2012 (~120k) and 2008 (~120k). Based on the DMR poll, assuming 130k turnout, Paul's 5% = 6,500 votes. That also means Trump gets 36k votes and Cruz 30k.
I think 6,500 is an extremely low number given what we know about Rand's outreach.
Making some assumptions:
- 90% of Ron's 2008 voters vote for Rand = 10,500
- 33% of the new Ron 2012 voters vote for Rand = 4,700
- 75% of the 10k Students for Rand turn out = 7,500
I can see Rand getting no less than 22,700 votes.
Some factors at play that can break DMR's prediction:
- Cruz losing voters due to debate, TV talking heads, and weekend gaffes = Cruz does worse than polls
- Paul having an unexpected rise in support post-debate = Paul does better than polls
- Rubio being inflated by talking heads = Rubio does better than polls
- Trump supporters taking for granted his inevitability + campaign's (relatively) weak ground game = Trump does worse
In the end, who knows? I'm hoping for top 2 or 3, otherwise we lose the chance for Rand to influence the narrative going into NH.
Atta boy, or girl! I admire and appreciate your optimism. I just hope and pray it's contagious!
Krugminator2
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http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/30/politics/ted-cruz-keep-the-promise-super-pac/index.html
Interesting nugget. Cruz's PACs only raised $2 million the second half of 2015. That is kind of amazing. Rand's PACs outraised Cruz by what looks like a decent margin.
Interesting nugget. Cruz's PACs only raised $2 million the second half of 2015. That is kind of amazing. Rand's PACs outraised Cruz by what looks like a decent margin.
Statistics is an art and science.
THE DES MOINES REGISTER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL
SELZER & COMPANY Study #2133
January 26-29, 2016
3,019 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district to conform to active voters in the Iowa voter registration list
602 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.0 percentage points for Republicans
602 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.0 percentage points for Democrats
+rep from me, I admire your positive thinking.
derek4ever
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I saw the results but i still think there's going to be a better performance for rand! Still think rand will be in the top 3! 
Krugminator2
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I think 2008 is the right comparison for this election however I think it is very unlikely he will get 90% of Ron's 2008 voter's. A huge part of Ron's coalition have views more in line what Trump is offering.
I think it is overwhelmingly likely he will outperform the polls.
Wow, that's one helluva analysis! Let's all hope this is even 80% accurate. I also understand polling is a science, but in this case it is one I don't understand and am going to have to see to believe! Come on Rand! Looking forward to seeing your dad at the rally tomorrow!
I reasoned that voters who were willing to vote for Ron that early are also critical thinkers who wouldn't be voting for Trump now, therefore Rand gets to retain a large percentage. But again, who knows? :]
They took the poll over Jan 26 to 29. The debate was on the 28th.
As polls have to adjust for people who only use landlines, use cellphones, only use the internet (people who only participate in internet polls are becoming people of interest to pollsters), among so many other variables, pollsters have to adjust for these various variables as much as possible. Like any serious pollster, Ann Selzer has to admit or exclude individuals as she creates a representative sample of what she believes to be likely caucus goers. In doing so, she omitted close to two thousand people that were polled on obtaining this sample.
In other words, Rand can pull through with a decent finish if he actually does get out the vote and this poll turns out to be non-representative of the people who end up caucusing.
In other words, Rand can pull through with a decent finish if he actually does get out the vote and this poll turns out to be non-representative of the people who end up caucusing.
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nikcers
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yes, Rand was on the main debate which is a difference. The media narrative up until before the last debate was that there is only one debate. They pumped the whole season that debates and by proxy the polls matter, then Rand skips their scam and flips their script. Rand says no the voters matter, who wins the votes matters. He called their polling data quackery and even Trump is shitting his pants trying to get people to caucus now in Iowa at the last minute. They were really hoping their blackouts would win, I think that the more they black Rand out the better he will do.
I saw a graphic earlier that they are calling for an %80 chance of snow in Iowa. I actually happen to think this election is the one that is more fluid than any other. So many strange things are happening (the Cruz mailer, the rubio surge, trump not showing to the debate, the mismedication of Dr. Ben Carson so that he looks like he is gonna fall asleep on stage)... The polling could be correct for 3 days ago, and still not portray what we will see Monday.
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