Gary Johnson polling at 16% in Iowa, 14% in NM, 16% in Utah, 19% in Alaska

[ronpaulhawaii]

Good point. That would lead to the conclusion that we have no good candidates this time around.

Pretty sure that all but the most ardent partisans on all sides figured this out some time ago

My enthusiasm for this election can hardly be contained.

Get in line.

lol...

Ron was a very rare politician/philosopher. Most philosophers have no inclination to run for office and it often goes against their principles. Hell, even Ron had to compromise on principles occasionally.

Johnson/Weld are politicians. I'm ok with that as politicians tend to do much better electorally and, while they are far from a Ron Paul, they do appear to place on the Libertarian side of the Nolan Chart.

I find these numbers encouraging. There are as many reasons to vote for X as there are voters. Some vote for, others against, and many don't even give a second thought beyond whatever leaned them in a direction in the first place. It is what it is.

The opportunity for freedom lovers is to reach these new eyeballs and bring them further into the tent...

Trump remains an authoritarian gas bag, without a clue on how government actually works, and I laugh any supporter of his talking about freedom like they actually care about it more than their particular pet peeve...

 

[RJ Liberty]

Don't worry, they will make some biased polls to bring us under 15% average, you watch.

Heh. I do not doubt this. Not at all. The polls selected will be the worst ones they can find.

 

[RJ Liberty]

538.com's also done an analysis of the statewide polls, and has forecast some numbers for Johnson. Here are the states where he's close to or above 15%. In some cases, the numbers are based on poll averages; in others, I'm not sure what they are basing the numbers on. The number for New Mexico seems too high, based on current polls, and the numbers for other states seem too low, based on current polls. And some of these states haven't yet had any polls which included Johnson. So make of these numbers what you will.

Alaska - 19.1%
Montana - 17.6%
New Mexico - 16.5%
Utah - 13.9%
Wyoming - 13.8%
Iowa - 13.1%
Maine - 12.5%
Arizona - 12.5%
Michigan - 12.4%
Kansas - 12.2%
North Dakota - 12.1%
Idaho - 11.8%
Indiana - 11.7%
Vermont - 11.7%
South Dakota - 11.5%
Nebraska - 11.3%
Minnesota - 11.2%
Oregon 11.1%
Arkansas - 11%
Pennsylvania - 11%
Washington - 11%

 

[CPUd]

538.com's also done an analysis of the statewide polls, and has forecast some numbers for Johnson. Here are the states where he's close to or above 15%. In some cases, the numbers are based on poll averages; in others, I'm not sure what they are basing the numbers on. The number for New Mexico seems too high, based on current polls, and the numbers for other states seem too low, based on current polls. And some of these states haven't yet had any polls which included Johnson. So make of these numbers what you will.

Alaska - 19.1%
Montana - 17.6%
New Mexico - 16.5%
Utah - 13.9%
Wyoming - 13.8%
Iowa - 13.1%
Maine - 12.5%
Arizona - 12.5%
Michigan - 12.4%
Kansas - 12.2%
North Dakota - 12.1%
Idaho - 11.8%
Indiana - 11.7%
Vermont - 11.7%
South Dakota - 11.5%
Nebraska - 11.3%
Minnesota - 11.2%
Oregon 11.1%
Arkansas - 11%
Pennsylvania - 11%
Washington - 11%

If those numbers are "polls plus", they may take into account Gary being the former governor of NM. They will often estimate lower in states where there is not a lot of polling data.

 

[eleganz]

I think once Trump is solidified as the nominee GJ will get more traction. Gary is really not doing a good job at bringing attention to himself but he has a decent message and I'm pretty impressed with how he and Weld sell themselves as a legitimate presidential team.

 

[RJ Liberty]

I think once Trump is solidified as the nominee GJ will get more traction. Gary is really not doing a good job at bringing attention to himself but he has a decent message and I'm pretty impressed with how he and Weld sell themselves as a legitimate presidential team.

The only thing I disagree with in your post is that Gary's not doing a good job bringing attention to himself. He's been making up to eight media appearances per day.

 

[RJ Liberty]

One thing all advocates of alternative party candidates (LP, Constitution Party AND Green Party) need to make sure we do...we need to stop the nonsense that stupid people spread, that voting for someone other than the major two flunkies is "throwing one's vote away" or that "a vote for the (insert alternative party candidate here) is a vote for (insert major party candidate's name who is most abhorrent to the voter here.)"

We need to break the stranglehold these two have on the electorate, and this year is our best chance.

This is a good point that I think deserves some discussion. I've even seen that "throwing your vote away" argument made on RPF, of all places, where people wrote in Ron Paul's name, sometimes even on ballots where write-ins wouldn't be counted.

A third-party vote is never wasted, because it's a vote against the two-party system.

 

[RJ Liberty]

Add Wisconsin to the list of states where Johnson's polling well. Gary is now taking 16% of Wisconsin voters in the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll (released June 30th).

He's also reached 10% in North Carolina (Evolving Strategies poll, released June 29th) and 10% in New Hampshire (in the same poll as the Wisconsin poll).

 

[RJ Liberty]

In other poll news, Trump is now behind Gary Johnson among blacks and other minorities, according to the GQR poll released last week. When was the last time a third party beat a major party in any demographic?

 

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

In other poll news, Trump is now behind Gary Johnson among blacks and other minorities, according to the GQR poll released last week. When was the last time a third party beat a major party in any demographic?

Probably a few weeks ago when it was announced that Hillary was third among independent voters.

 

[phill4paul]

Probably a few weeks ago when it was announced that Hillary was third among independent voters.

Shit's all up in the air. Honestly, polls at this point are fluid. If the LP is truly getting numbers then I think it is a good thing. Just because I would like a third party to become relevant. I dunno. The CIA has influenced election on foreign shores so..why not here? As a small "l" libertarian I can't believe Johnson and Weld are the ticket from a philosophical view. But, they are taking the moderate approach, which I think will play out going forward. I dunno.

 

[RJ Liberty]

$#@!'s all up in the air. Honestly, polls at this point are fluid. If the LP is truly getting numbers then I think it is a good thing. Just because I would like a third party to become relevant.

As would I. I've never understood why this country can only ever have two major parties when every other country in the world has three or more choices. In a country as vast as ours, artificially limiting the choices to two voices makes no sense. When Ron ran in 2008, I had a glimmer of hope in the Republican Party, but they snuffed that out pretty quickly. The change we need isn't going to come from the Rs or the Ds. These strong numbers give me hope that a third party, imperfect as it is, can offer some level of choice.

And the numbers do seem to be quite strong. Open Secrets states that Gary's campaign has only spent $523,000 since January. That's less than $3,000 per day. Trump's spent $63,000,000 and Clinton's spent $229,000,000. Yet Gary's already polling at about 1/3rd of Trump's numbers.

 

[RJ Liberty]

Add California and Vermont to the list of states where Johnson is polling at 10% or above.

California - 10% (Field Poll, released July 5th)
Vermont - 10% (FM3 Poll, released July 7th)

 

[Krugminator2]

And the numbers do seem to be quite strong. Open Secrets states that Gary's campaign has only spent $523,000 since January. That's less than $3,000 per day. Trump's spent $63,000,000 and Clinton's spent $229,000,000. Yet Gary's already polling at about 1/3rd of Trump's numbers.

The Giant Meteor of Doom is polling at 13% in the latest PPP poll, better than than GJ. He has spent $0.

Gary was the best choice for the LP ticket but is still very weak. Gary has more downside potential than upside potential. The idea of Gary Johnson sounds great on paper. 2 term Governor, successful in business. Then when you hear him talk, most people realize he isn't too bright. I can overlook almost any ideological difference if the person is semi-reasonable. But Gary is incredibly lazy and ill-prepared. He hasn't even made the effort to formulate responses to even the most basic questions like drug legalization.

This has given rise to the 'Giant Meteor for President' movement, and we find that the Meteor would poll at 13%- far more support than the third party candidates actually on the ballot- with Clinton at 43% and Trump at 38%. The Meteor is particularly appealing to independent voters, functionally in a three way tie at 27% to 35% for Clinton and 31% for Trump. Maybe that's who the Libertarians should have nominated.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/presidential-race-shaping-up-similarly-to-2012.html

 

[RJ Liberty]

The Giant Meteor of Doom is polling at 13% in the latest PPP poll, better than than GJ. He has spent $0.

PPP put The Giant Meteor of Doom in their poll for free; it didn't cost him any money for the exposure. Johnson, on the other hand, has had to spend money to even get into the polls. PPP didn't even include him in their polls in 2012, and only begrudgingly included him this year once other pollsters started to do so. The Giant Meteor of Doom never had that issue; PPP was happy to include him as soon as he entered the race.

Gary was the best choice for the LP ticket but is still very weak. Gary has more downside potential than upside potential. The idea of Gary Johnson sounds great on paper. 2 term Governor, successful in business. Then when you hear him talk, most people realize he isn't too bright. I can overlook almost any ideological difference if the person is semi-reasonable. But Gary is incredibly lazy and ill-prepared. He hasn't even made the effort to formulate responses to even the most basic questions like drug legalization.

He does need to improve his public speaking, but I would not call him lazy; he's doing up to 20 media appearances per day now, according to Reason. That's impressive.

 

[NewRightLibertarian]

Elmer Fudd or Daffy Duck would poll just as well if not better as Gary Johnson. Remember that Deez Nutz got 10 percent against Hitlery and Trump too. "Giant Meteor" has out-polled Gary Johnson recently. So these results mean dick.

The LP is just as mediocre and pathetic as ever, now they are just selling their souls and doing the bidding of the establishment in a sad attempt to be relevant. In fact, the Johnson/Weld ticket is a new low for those sorry cowards. Principled libertarians will vote for Castle, or stay home.

 

[phill4paul]

Elmer Fudd or Daffy Duck would poll just as well if not better as Gary Johnson. Remember that Deez Nutz got 10 percent against Hitlery and Trump too. "Giant Meteor" has out-polled Gary Johnson recently. So these results mean dick.

The LP is just as mediocre and pathetic as ever, now they are just selling their souls and doing the bidding of the establishment in a sad attempt to be relevant. In fact, the Johnson/Weld ticket is a new low for those sorry cowards. Principled libertarians will vote for Castle, or stay home.

No. Thanks, anyway...

At the end of World War II, Europeans expelled 15 million ethnic Germans from countries across Europe. The Germans were driven out into the cold rain and the mud, raped, starved, and left to die in death camps. That is not a suggested solution for Islamic terrorism, folks, it’s just an historical fact. President Roosevelt, Stalin, and Churchill jointly agreed to this ethnic cleansing at the Potsdam Conference. They did it because the Germans shared the same ethnic culture, language, and bloodline as Hitler. They had to be racially punished for their blood guilt, even if they had been Europeans for the entire 800 years of western civilization, they could never be trusted again. That’s the way these people thought. Of course, the U.S. government then imported 4,000 Nazi scientists to help with the American rocket and jet propulsion programs, and a few were hanged at Nuremberg, but most escaped to South America. That solution might be a little harsh for our world today, folks.

Let’s look at what Dr. Ron Paul offers as a solution. “As in the United States, the security crisis in Europe is directly tied to bad policy. Until the bad policy is changed, no amount of surveillance, racial profiling, and police harassment can make the population safer. Europeans already seem to understand this, and as we have seen in recent German elections they are abandoning the parties that promise that the same old bad policies will, this time, produce different results. Hopefully, Americans will also stand up and demand a change in our foreign policy before bad policy leads to more terrorist violence on our shores.”

That’s okay, Dr. Paul, for our foreign policy; but for domestic policy, I would like to see secure borders, Jihadists deported, and no more Jihadists invited in. I don’t want to be assimilated, folks! And I don’t want to be extinguished! That’s the way I see it.

http://castle2016.com/islamic-terror/#more-741

 

[NewRightLibertarian]

No. Thanks, anyway...



http://castle2016.com/islamic-terror/#more-741

Was that position a deal-breaker for you in 2012 when Ron Paul said nearly exactly the same thing?

 

[phill4paul]

Was that position a deal-breaker for you in 2012 when Ron Paul said nearly exactly the same thing?

Not really and honestly I like most of Castles positions. I don't know why he would take that pot shot at Ron though. Doesn't seem necessary. It's his party that I have some concern over.

Gambling increases crimes, destroys families, grows governmental bureaucracies, exploits those who are addicted and leaches the economic prosperity out of our communities.. We are opposed to government sponsorship, involvement in, or promotion of gambling such as lotteries, casinos or subsidization of Native American casinos. We call for the repeal of federal legislation that usurps state and local authority regarding authorization and regulation of tribal casinos in the states.

As I understand it Tribal lands are not under state jurisdiction. Sovereign treaties govern them.

Pornography, obscenity and sexually oriented businesses are a distortion of the true nature of sex created by God for the procreative union between one man and one woman in the holy bonds of matrimony. This results in emotional, physical, spiritual and financial costs to individuals, families and communities.

Due to a lack of prosecution, the sexually oriented business industry has proliferated, aggravating the problems of child pornography, human trafficking and sexually transmitted diseases. This is decreasing our safety by increasing crime rates, specifically rape and molestation in additional to the loss of dignity belonging to all human beings.

We call on our local, state and federal governments to uphold our First Amendment right to free speech by vigorously enforcing all laws against obscenity.

They like everything to revert to state and locality except for this particular pet-peeve. What's next, prohibition of alcohol?

There is more but you get my drift. They are, what I consider, correct on a number of issues. Others.....not so much.

 

[RJ Liberty]

Add Colorado to the list of states where Johnson is polling above 10%. Just yesterday, Fox News released a new poll showing Gary at 13% there. Previously, Gravis had Johnson at 9% (early July) in the Centennial State.

Meanwhile, fivethirtyeight.com has upgraded Johnson's estimates in Montana, from 17% to 18.9%.

Nationally, the numbers continue to climb, with Gary at 13% among Likely Voters in the Harvard Poll released this week (15% among all voters aged 18-29).