'Best Pollster in Politics' releases final Iowa poll tonight at 5:30.
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mit26chell
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Who cares. He didn't fall and two establishment pricks are below him. I realize this may fuck with the next debate but wasn't he already excluded?
CPUd
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No.
They were expecting all the last polls to suddenly change because this is when they get "rated for accuracy"
I think finishing 4th ahead of Carson is a reasonable goal at this point to show that the campaign isn't just rolling over. 3rd or higher would be quite the feat.
Jamesiv1
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Because Ron is retired and doesn't want to do that shit anymore. And we shouldn't expect him to.
mit26chell
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Rand will be top 3 in IA.
Patrick Henry
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That would be nice.
This is essentially the third go around for team Paul, and the campaign just made a million phone calls I suppose I was expecting a little more?
I feel better with this but you know the MSM will use this poll against Rand from now till Monday and thus creating a self fulfilling prophecy.
CPUd
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They identified 37K Rand supporters or leaners, how many of those 37K of the 602 sampled do you think this poll called?
Yeah whatever, I don't buy that shit.. Ron seemed to enjoy getting out and talking to young people. I would think this even more so when you got a socialist like sanders out here fooling all these young people. Especially given the fact it would be an opportunity to help his son achieve what he didn't.
CPUd
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Ron on the trail wouldn't have changed the results of these polls. The last DMR sample only included 5% of Ron 2012 voters.
cornell
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You're mixing up the 37k voters CAV pac found with the 1 million calls the campaign made. Completely separate.
If he enjoyed it so much why doesn't he do it for himself? Ron doesn't need to campaign for Rand in order to give speeches.
Some of you need to take a step back and stop caring about this polling data. If not for the polls, would you have any reason to doubt Rand's ability to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire? The caucus is in two days, the results will speak for themselves.
Sure, polling is usually somewhat accurate. This election cycle is an abnormal one in all regards. Celebrity has taken over. Do you really believe Trump will get 30% of the vote? I'll believe it when I see it. My guess is that it is more likely than not that his voters do not show up.
The poll showing that only 5% of those included voted for Ron Paul in 2012 proves that our polling is being under-reported. By how much, we won't know until Monday/Tuesday. In that poll it was by 20%.
You need to realize this is a caucus. 40% of people are still not firm in their choice of candidate. The vast majority of those caucusing are not like you and I. They do not have their mind set and do not know everything there is to know about every candidate. What matters is getting our people out and making sure they have compelling speeches to give in Rand's favor. The people in Iowa will be listening to their neighbors and then deciding their vote. It is still very fluid.
In my opinion, turning out thousands of young people with over 1,000 precinct captains with finely tuned speeches has the potential to sway many voters. Those showing up will respect that the younger generation is participating and it will have an effect.
We can only hope for the best. This poll changes nothing. We have 48 hours. Make some calls if you are worried.
Sure, polling is usually somewhat accurate. This election cycle is an abnormal one in all regards. Celebrity has taken over. Do you really believe Trump will get 30% of the vote? I'll believe it when I see it. My guess is that it is more likely than not that his voters do not show up.
The poll showing that only 5% of those included voted for Ron Paul in 2012 proves that our polling is being under-reported. By how much, we won't know until Monday/Tuesday. In that poll it was by 20%.
You need to realize this is a caucus. 40% of people are still not firm in their choice of candidate. The vast majority of those caucusing are not like you and I. They do not have their mind set and do not know everything there is to know about every candidate. What matters is getting our people out and making sure they have compelling speeches to give in Rand's favor. The people in Iowa will be listening to their neighbors and then deciding their vote. It is still very fluid.
In my opinion, turning out thousands of young people with over 1,000 precinct captains with finely tuned speeches has the potential to sway many voters. Those showing up will respect that the younger generation is participating and it will have an effect.
We can only hope for the best. This poll changes nothing. We have 48 hours. Make some calls if you are worried.
Not necessarily true. If they first ask people are you going to caucus, and out of those only 5% voted for Ron, then that could mean that 3/4 of his voters are staying home this year. Ron on the trail could have fired them up to go vote.
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