What states can Rand win in 2016?

[compromise]

What states can Rand win in the 2016 primaries?

What states do you think Rand Paul has a good chance of winning in and what states do you think he doesn't have a good chance of winning in?

I think:
Extremely high chance of winning: Minnesota, Maine
Very high chance of winning: Kentucky, Louisiana, Vermont
High chance of winning: Iowa, North Dakota, Alaska
Moderate chance of winning: New Hampshire, Virginia
Low chance of winning: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania
Very low chance of winning: Florida

Of course this depends on who else is running, but Ron Paul's results in 2012 (and possibly also Santorum's) can allow us to make some guesses.

 

[69360]

Primary or general?

He has to win IA and NH in the primary or it's game over.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

IA, NH, NV are all very high probabilities. Iowa probably presents our best chance to win a state.

SC is moderate.

FL is virtually impossible, unless Rand steamrolls IA, NH, SC then it becomes more of a toss up.

 

[supermario21]

I think he can do well in Ohio if he turns out SE Ohio. The Republican base in Southern Ohio is also very close to Kentucky and he might be able to do well there, although Santorum would be the early favorite there if he ran.

 

[KingNothing]

All of them.

 

[jcannon98188]

None of them. Unless something changed grassroots was castrated by the GOP. Their will put up Rubio or someone who will steamroll everything.

 

[Brett85]

None of them unless he can get the Kentucky law changed to allow him to run for two offices at once.

 

[DylanWaco]

I'd say Rand has zero chance in SC, unless the rest of the crop are northeastern Republicans.

If you he can't win Iowa he'll be finished. Really there is no excuse for him not to win Iowa

 

[libertyfanatic]

I'd say Rand has zero chance in SC, unless the rest of the crop are northeastern Republicans.

If you he can't win Iowa he'll be finished. Really there is no excuse for him not to win Iowa

Voter fraud

 

[mz10]

The liberty movement is very strong and well-organized in Massachusetts, he may not win here but he's gonna get quite a few bound delegates.

 

[eleganz]

Not winning Iowa and New Hampshire is unacceptable for 2016. It was unacceptable this year for Ron as well.

 

[whoisjohngalt]

The liberty movement is very strong and well-organized in Massachusetts, he may not win here but he's gonna get quite a few bound delegates.

The new GOP rules prevent you from getting bound delegates if you don't win if I'm not mistaken?

 

[whoisjohngalt]

None of them unless he can get the Kentucky law changed to allow him to run for two offices at once.

Kentucky's primary is sometime in May. He will have plenty of time to bow out and run for Senate if the POTUS campaign isn't going as expected.

 

[Southerner]

...
He has to win IA and NH in the primary or it's game over.

I disagree. While that may be true for your "ordinary" GOP candidate, (because of MONEY) I think Rand can lose IA, NH, SC & FL... as long as he places at least 2nd to 4th in all of those, He can still be nominated. Just imagine how many states RON could have won or got 2nd in, if he had not taken his foot off the accelerator after SC in 2012. jmho

 

[eleganz]

The new GOP rules prevent you from getting bound delegates if you don't win if I'm not mistaken?

The theory is since it was a sham convention none of the new rules count. Which makes sense. What better way to discourage an entire movement than to make them think the rules are favored against them?

 

[mello]

Two things need to happen:

1st) We need to get enough people in charge at the local & state levels to prevent getting screwed over by insiders gaming the system.

2nd) We need to try to get rid of as many electronic voting booths as possible & switch them over to paper ballots so there can be a physical record of the vote.

 

[Keith and stuff]

Guessing right now, I'd say quite a few. Perhaps most of the Southern states outside of FL. Much of the Midwest and some of the West. Maybe more. It depends on a bunch of factors like which candidates run and how well he does in the early states. Being tied with the Tea Party will hurt him in the Northeast where the Tea Party isn't popular but maybe help him in the Southeast.

 

[RickyJ]

Very low chance of winning: Florida

In the general election he must win Florida or he has no chance. If you really think his chances of winning Florida are low, then that has to change before 2016 or we need someone else to run.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

I disagree. While that may be true for your "ordinary" GOP candidate, (because of MONEY) I think Rand can lose IA, NH, SC & FL... as long as he places at least 2nd to 4th in all of those, He can still be nominated. Just imagine how many states RON could have won or got 2nd in, if he had not taken his foot off the accelerator after SC in 2012. jmho

That's not how it works. You have to build momentum and be a proven winner to prevail and be taken seriously by the media and voters. Nobody likes swimming next to a drowning man.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

The theory is since it was a sham convention none of the new rules count. Which makes sense. What better way to discourage an entire movement than to make them think the rules are favored against them?

I agree 100%. They wanted to discourage the grassroots into leaving with their tail between their legs. The answer isn't to give up, but to double our efforts and fight even harder!