What states can Rand win in 2016?

[Bastiat's The Law]

In the general election he must win Florida or he has no chance. If you really think his chances of winning Florida are low, then that has to change before 2016 or we need someone else to run.

We're talking republican primary. OP didn't put that in the thread title .

 

[loveableteddybear]

He has to win Iowa and New Hampshire, or he will be ignored. He CAN do it. Being that people down South are just plain stupid, if he starts pandering to them now, he can do better in SC. The war is not going to be an issue by 2016, so the things SC hate about Ron Paul will not be issues.

 

[mz10]

The new GOP rules prevent you from getting bound delegates if you don't win if I'm not mistaken?

Not true, the reason Romney got all of the bound delegates is because he won 71% of the vote, which was expected given that it was his home state. Had another candidate received a certain percentage (not sure what the number is), he would have received delegates.

 

[eleganz]

I disagree. While that may be true for your "ordinary" GOP candidate, (because of MONEY) I think Rand can lose IA, NH, SC & FL... as long as he places at least 2nd to 4th in all of those, He can still be nominated. Just imagine how many states RON could have won or got 2nd in, if he had not taken his foot off the accelerator after SC in 2012. jmho

No offense but I hope nobody takes this post seriously.

Things just don't work this way.

 

[Southerner]

If I wasn't serious, I wouldn't have bothered typing it. You disagree, fine. First, I think that Rand could win in all 3 of the first states. I also think he could come in 2nd or lower, and still have a chance after not winning any of the 3. Its highly unlikely, but possible. I preface all of this really not knowing what the future holds. If the economy is, by some miracle, much better in 2016, then whomever the democratic nominee is WILL WIN THE WHITE HOUSE, no matter who the GOP nominee is. (Especially if its Hillary) I say this because the majority of people are ignorant low information voters, and give all credit, or all blame mostly to whomever is President. The MEDIA will always be on the side of the democratic party, and that makes winning an uphill battle for any GOPster. The GOP has NEVER nominated a true "conservative" post Goldwater, and I'm not holding my hopes out that it ever will again. That doesn't mean that I can't do everything in my power to TRY to make it happen. To attempt to say what states Rand HAS to win in a primary 4 years out is fun and all, but a stab in the dark. He has to win a majority of the delegates. Period.

 

[mz10]

If I wasn't serious, I wouldn't have bothered typing it. You disagree, fine. First, I think that Rand could win in all 3 of the first states. I also think he could come in 2nd or lower, and still have a chance after not winning any of the 3. Its highly unlikely, but possible. I preface all of this really not knowing what the future holds. If the economy is, by some miracle, much better in 2016, then whomever the democratic nominee is WILL WIN THE WHITE HOUSE, no matter who the GOP nominee is. (Especially if its Hillary) I say this because the majority of people are ignorant low information voters, and give all credit, or all blame mostly to whomever is President. The MEDIA will always be on the side of the democratic party, and that makes winning an uphill battle for any GOPster. The GOP has NEVER nominated a true "conservative" post Goldwater, and I'm not holding my hopes out that it ever will again. That doesn't mean that I can't do everything in my power to TRY to make it happen. To attempt to say what states Rand HAS to win in a primary 4 years out is fun and all, but a stab in the dark. He has to win a majority of the delegates. Period.

I agree that there are no absolutes. If Rand is consistently placing second to, say, Rubio, and then Rubio gets into some kind of scandal, Rand would be in pretty good position. But barring an event like that, Rand has to win one of the first three states. That's just the way the nominating process works. Also, Reagan was a true conservative when he was nominated, so much so that he had a vigorous supporter by the name of Ron Paul.

 

[supermario21]

It also wouldn't hurt us if we had a few soap opera candidates like Cain and Bachmann. I remember seeing a Ron interview where he said his biggest jump in support came after Cain dropped out. We need to make sure we can sew up the "everyone but frontrunner" types because I see us as probably 3rd or 4th in line behind Rubio, Ryan, or Christie.

 

[XTreat]

With Tom Davis in the senate helping, a SC win in the primary is doable. That could possibly sweep the first three states, except maybe if Christie runs he will probably take NH.

In the general IA, VI, OH, KY, NH, WI, MI, swing states are all very winnable probably.

 

[Galileo Galilei]

I'd say Rand has zero chance in SC, unless the rest of the crop are northeastern Republicans.

If you he can't win Iowa he'll be finished. Really there is no excuse for him not to win Iowa

Watch out for Huckabee in Iowa. I would not be surprised if Huckabee is sent out against Rand to win Iowa. Huckabee has a lot of followers because of his national TV show on Fox.

The only way to beat Huckabee is to sell Rand like Romney was sold, convince voters that Huckabee can't win in the long run. That's might not be easy.

 

[anaconda]

Let's see...which ones did Reagan win in 1980?

 

[anaconda]

Watch out for Huckabee in Iowa. I would not be surprised if Huckabee is sent out against Rand to win Iowa. Huckabee has a lot of followers because of his national TV show on Fox.

The only way to beat Huckabee is to sell Rand like Romney was sold, convince voters that Huckabee can't win in the long run. That's might not be easy.

The Huckster should be an easy target for negative ads.

 

[compromise]

Watch out for Huckabee in Iowa. I would not be surprised if Huckabee is sent out against Rand to win Iowa. Huckabee has a lot of followers because of his national TV show on Fox.

The only way to beat Huckabee is to sell Rand like Romney was sold, convince voters that Huckabee can't win in the long run. That's might not be easy.

Won't Huck want to stick with his FOX show instead of going for another presidential run?

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

With Tom Davis in the senate helping, a SC win in the primary is doable. That could possibly sweep the first three states, except maybe if Christie runs he will probably take NH.

In the general IA, VI, OH, KY, NH, WI, MI, swing states are all very winnable probably.

I'm not sure Christie's Jersey appeal will translate to NH. Romney did being Gov of Massachusetts and having residence in NH. I could see Rand taking first and Christie second and being out of the race after that.

 

[Galileo Galilei]

Won't Huck want to stick with his FOX show instead of going for another presidential run?

He might, but they have ways of prompting people.

 

[Galileo Galilei]

The Huckster should be an easy target for negative ads.

Yeah, but will the evangelicals care or believe them?

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Yeah, but will the evangelicals care or believe them?

Hopefully the shape this country will be in in a few short years will be enough for the average republican to realize the urgency and the dire need for a true fiscal conservative as the nominee since the election will lean our way. Rand has to explain to the baby boomers and seniors how screwed they're gonna be if we don't cut spending with a meat hook and free up the private sector to open jobs for the youth to prosper and keep the game going. The easiest fix the establishment will have is curtailing or outright doing away with health care for those that are past their prime.

 

[Brett85]

Hopefully the shape this country will be in in a few short years will be enough for the average republican to realize the urgency and the dire need for a true fiscal conservative as the nominee since the election will lean our way. Rand has to explain to the baby boomers and seniors how screwed they're gonna be if we don't cut spending with a meat hook and free up the private sector to open jobs for the youth to prosper and keep the game going. The easiest fix the establishment will have is curtailing or outright doing away with health care for those that are past their prime.

Will the 2016 election really lean our way when President Obama has a 58% approval rating and the polls show that the American people agree with the Democrats on basically every single issue? It just seems like the American people have taken a sharp turn to the left to me. This certainly is not a "center-right" country anymore.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Will the 2016 election really lean our way when President Obama has a 58% approval rating and the polls show that the American people agree with the Democrats on basically every single issue? It just seems like the American people have taken a sharp turn to the left to me. This certainly is not a "center-right" country anymore.

He's only at a high rate now because of the shooting that is being broadcast ad infinitum. We certainly were a center-right country in his first mid-terms and more than likely will be in 2 years. If the GOP continues to go on defense then we'll get steamrolled. The likes of Boehner and his ilk are clearly pissing off the base and the rino picks for prez have a dampening effect. As we grow our ranks in the party, coalition-build, team up with nat'l conservative/Tea Party orgs to improve the footprint in the House/Senate then we can get the candidate we need for 2016 to prove the GOP isn't the corporate and warmongering party that doesn't care about the average guy.

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

Punch up and Punch down. Don't underestimate ANY opponent (like ignoring and not punching down Santorum).

 

[Keith and stuff]

I'm not sure Christie's Jersey appeal will translate to NH. Romney did being Gov of Massachusetts and having residence in NH. I could see Rand taking first and Christie second and being out of the race after that.

Everyday Rand continues to associate with the Tea Party hurts him in NH. The Tea Party isn't even popular with the majority of Republicans in New England because it is so associated with social conservatism. The again, while undeclared voters voted heavily in favor of Ron Paul because of his stances on things like War, that may not help Rand either. If Rand doesn't win IA, he might do worse among undeclared voters in NH than Ron Paul did. Those 2 issues may not be as important because if the Democratic Primary is very competitive, many of the more moderate undeclared voters might vote in the Democratic Primary.

NH might very well be a crowded field in 2016. I think it had around 30 candidates in 2012, maybe there will be 40 in 2016. It seems too hard to predict how NH will go right now. Rand will need to work very hard and spend a lot of money to take 1st in NH.