What states can Rand win in 2016?

[mz10]

Everyday Rand continues to associate with the Tea Party hurts him in NH. The Tea Party isn't even popular with the majority of Republicans in New England because it is so associated with social conservatism. The again, while undeclared voters voted heavily in favor of Ron Paul because of his stances on things like War, that may not help Rand either. If Rand doesn't win IA, he might do worse among undeclared voters in NH than Ron Paul did. Those 2 issues may not be as important because if the Democratic Primary is very competitive, many of the more moderate undeclared voters might vote in the Democratic Primary.

NH might very well be a crowded field in 2016. I think it had around 30 candidates in 2012, maybe there will be 40 in 2016. It seems too hard to predict how NH will go right now. Rand will need to work very hard and spend a lot of money to take 1st in NH.

And quite frankly, war seems kind of popular with NH voters, given the performances of Ayotte and McCain.

 

[anaconda]

Yeah, but will the evangelicals care or believe them?

People believe advertizing. They are sheep. If I recall, the Huckster was a big government spender, paroled some violent criminal that he got a lot of egg on his face over, and had more than his share of ethics violation accusations. Look how easy it was to take down Gingrich with a little bit of focus and ad buys.

On the other hand, money doesn't grow on trees (at least, not for anti-establishment candidates).

 

[eleganz]

Everyday Rand continues to associate with the Tea Party hurts him in NH. The Tea Party isn't even popular with the majority of Republicans in New England because it is so associated with social conservatism. The again, while undeclared voters voted heavily in favor of Ron Paul because of his stances on things like War, that may not help Rand either. If Rand doesn't win IA, he might do worse among undeclared voters in NH than Ron Paul did. Those 2 issues may not be as important because if the Democratic Primary is very competitive, many of the more moderate undeclared voters might vote in the Democratic Primary.

NH might very well be a crowded field in 2016. I think it had around 30 candidates in 2012, maybe there will be 40 in 2016. It seems too hard to predict how NH will go right now. Rand will need to work very hard and spend a lot of money to take 1st in NH.

Well let's hope Rand has a great debate performance and our grassroots gets on the phone from home system and really drive the truth home.

We could win this, afterall, Rand has Ron's name recognition.

 

[Keith and stuff]

And quite frankly, war seems kind of popular with NH voters, given the performances of Ayotte and McCain.

I am not sure what Ayotte had to do with war in 2010. She was a Republican. She had been AG under both Republican and Democratic governors and had been known as a centrist. Since she was known as a centrist and it was a Republican year, she easily won.

McCain lost in NH, partly because people were so against Bush, and much of that was due to war. Many (maybe most) of the anti-war/pro-peace voters will be participating of the Democratic Primary in 2016, though. They likely wouldn't help Rand Paul, anyway. You never know though.

 

[mz10]

I am not sure what Ayotte had to do with war in 2010. She was a Republican. She had been AG under both Republican and Democratic governors and had been known as a centrist. Since she was known as a centrist and it was a Republican year, she easily won.

McCain lost in NH, partly because people were so against Bush, and much of that was due to war. Many (maybe most) of the anti-war/pro-peace voters will be participating of the Democratic Primary in 2016, though. They likely wouldn't help Rand Paul, anyway. You never know though.

Good point about Ayotte. As for McCain, I was referring to his primary performances in NH, he won in both 2000 and 2008.

Honestly, I think a lot of people from my side of the border are defecting, which makes NH a lot more difficult. The more Deval raises taxes, the more refugees you're going to see.

 

[Keith and stuff]

Good point about Ayotte. As for McCain, I was referring to his primary performances in NH, he won in both 2000 and 2008.

Honestly, I think a lot of people from my side of the border are defecting, which makes NH a lot more difficult. The more Deval raises taxes, the more refugees you're going to see.

McCain campaigned as a centrist, so he did well in NH. He didn't talk about religion much (it is a big mistake to talk about religion in NH) and had moderate policies which he championed to bring up, like campaign finance reform. I remember, the media called him Maverick. It also helped that he is a war hero. 40% of the electorate is undeclared in NH. That might be less than MA but it is a larger amount, and they are able to vote in either primary.

With Amazon now charging sales taxes in MA, that is going to further help NH businesses in Seabrook, Hampton, Salem, Derry, Hudson, Nashua and Rindge. NH is more socially liberal than it used to be and slightly less fiscally conservative (but even the NH Democrats are still against both a sales tax and an income tax). This is partially because of Masshole refugees. Overall, it is a good think. NH gets the more socially conservative GOP folks from MA. They move to NH and tend to vote GOP. NH also gets the more Fiscally moderate Democrats. They move to NH and vote for moderate Democrats. The problem is the refugees from NJ and NY (but that's a different story.)

It's great because most of the free staters in NH who run for office run as either socially tolerant Republicans or fiscally conservative Democrats. And frequently, we win. The only problem is, we need more free staters. More than half of the free staters who have run for state rep. in NH as Republicans or Democrats have made it through the primary and been elected in the general election. I think 35 to 37 have run and 19 to 20 have won. That's pretty good odds. But we need 80 or more to run every cycle. I don't think that will happen until a few years after we reach 20,000 signers, though. However, I was told a group to encourage free staters, Ron Paul supporters, Gary Johnson supports and other libertarian types to run for state rep. is forming in NH right now. Things just keep getting better.

 

[mz10]

McCain campaigned as a centrist, so he did well in NH. He didn't talk about religion much (it is a big mistake to talk about religion in NH) and had moderate policies which he championed to bring up, like campaign finance reform. I remember, the media called him Maverick. It also helped that he is a war hero. 40% of the electorate is undeclared in NH. That might be less than MA but it is a larger amount, and they are able to vote in either primary.

With Amazon now charging sales taxes in MA, that is going to further help NH businesses in Seabrook, Hampton, Salem, Derry, Hudson, Nashua and Rindge. NH is more socially liberal than it used to be and slightly less fiscally conservative (but even the NH Democrats are still against both a sales tax and an income tax). This is partially because of Masshole refugees. Overall, it is a good think. NH gets the more socially conservative GOP folks from MA. They move to NH and tend to vote GOP. NH also gets the more Fiscally moderate Democrats. They move to NH and vote for moderate Democrats. The problem is the refugees from NJ and NY (but that's a different story.)

It's great because most of the free staters in NH who run for office run as either socially tolerant Republicans or fiscally conservative Democrats. And frequently, we win. The only problem is, we need more free staters. More than half of the free staters who have run for state rep. in NH as Republicans or Democrats have made it through the primary and been elected in the general election. I think 35 to 37 have run and 19 to 20 have won. That's pretty good odds. But we need 80 or more to run every cycle. I don't think that will happen until a few years after we reach 20,000 signers, though. However, I was told a group to encourage free staters, Ron Paul supporters, Gary Johnson supports and other libertarian types to run for state rep. is forming in NH right now. Things just keep getting better.

The weird thing about Mass politics is that a lot of the people here (at least in my part of the state) are not all that fiscally liberal. There are so many reasons why Democrats win (better turnout operations, people voting on social issues, etc.), but the government is more liberal than the people, so there is a definite market for fiscal conservatism. Problem is the Mass GOP has been so inept for so long that it basically has to do a 180. You're right that those are a lot of the people we're losing to New Hampshire, the fiscal conservatives who are fed up with the one party state. Good news is we have a lot of newer voices like Jim Lyons and Ryan Fattman that are starting to inject new life into the state party. Its quite a struggle though.

I've thought about moving up to NH, I only live about 10 min from the border. All my political connections are here though, so I feel like this is the place I can have the most impact. I do think there is a chance for Mass to be more like a New Jersey, a blue state with pockets of red. The Mass GOP is going to have to stop stomping on the grassroots though, because that's where the change is going to start.

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

Well let's hope Rand has a great debate performance and our grassroots gets on the phone from home system and really drive the truth home.

We could win this, afterall, Rand has Ron's name recognition.

Rand may or may not be as good as Ron, but he is as close as we are going to get AND have a slight chance of winning. I am sure there are other statesman that is "pure" like Ron, but they just dont have the "name" power yet.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Everyday Rand continues to associate with the Tea Party hurts him in NH. The Tea Party isn't even popular with the majority of Republicans in New England because it is so associated with social conservatism.

Is that what you've been hearing about Rand or is that speculation? I'd think the Tea Party folk, at least these days, would be seen as those that are holding the line on the establishment's cave on tax increases, nobody is talking about social issues. I suspect you guys up there have a decent amount of influence in the state and local GOP, so why are you short on confidence especially when Rand is almost single-handedly running the opposition on every major establishment play? As far as Ayotte goes, I get that NH folk mostly fall for moderates on a statewide basis but is there anyone in the party calling her votes into question? How can the party players and much of the citizenry that love their low taxes not see Rand, on the Prez short list, as clearly the most fiscally conservative?

 

[erowe1]

If he wins both NH and IA, then his odds go up significantly for every state after that. If he wins neither, they go down significantly. So his odds in each state are not independent variables.

 

[ssunlimited]

Rand HAS to win Iowa. That's his best chance!

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

Everyday Rand continues to associate with the Tea Party hurts him in NH. The Tea Party isn't even popular with the majority of Republicans in New England because it is so associated with social conservatism. The again, while undeclared voters voted heavily in favor of Ron Paul because of his stances on things like War, that may not help Rand either. If Rand doesn't win IA, he might do worse among undeclared voters in NH than Ron Paul did. Those 2 issues may not be as important because if the Democratic Primary is very competitive, many of the more moderate undeclared voters might vote in the Democratic Primary.

NH might very well be a crowded field in 2016. I think it had around 30 candidates in 2012, maybe there will be 40 in 2016. It seems too hard to predict how NH will go right now. Rand will need to work very hard and spend a lot of money to take 1st in NH.

I agree with most of what you say. I think Rand taking first is very possible. He's excellent at presenting himself as a candidate in townhalls and campaign commercials. Rand is also a great campaigner so he will go 110% and cover the entire state.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

People believe advertizing. They are sheep. If I recall, the Huckster was a big government spender, paroled some violent criminal that he got a lot of egg on his face over, and had more than his share of ethics violation accusations. Look how easy it was to take down Gingrich with a little bit of focus and ad buys.

On the other hand, money doesn't grow on trees (at least, not for anti-establishment candidates).

Yup, we can expose the record and dirty laundry of our opponents but its very expensive to do so. You're also running adds to build yourself up simultaneously so that begins to add up to millions in advertising. We got to expand our fund raising network.