PPP Poll - Iowa GOP Presidential Primary
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RP Supporter
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Very disappointing, but was Paul even at 1% this time four years ago? There's still time for improvement, especially if he can win Ames. Also, the field's not completely set up yet. Palin and Bachmann are not even in, and chances are good at least one of them won't run.
The fact is Cain is taking up alot of oxygen at the moment. It won't last. It did not for Trump and it won't for him. When attacks and damaging articles start coming out on him(attacks he likely won't have the money to combat), he'll deflate, and his supporters will probably go for one of the candidates that are considered conservative and anti establishment, such as Bachmann or Paul. The key is to show disappointed voters that Ron is the real deal. Cain may be a good man, but Paul's had a long record of opposing big government and standing up for conservative principals. That's the type of red meat the primary voters love to hear, and I somehow don't think Cain voters have Romney as their second choice. The reason they like him is that he's an "outsider." If we can show them Ron is as well I think many of them will get on board.
But bottom line, now's not the time to get discouraged. Iowa's really make or break, but with Romney pissing off the state, Palin not likely to run, and Gingrich disliked, I still feel confidant about our team's chances.
The fact is Cain is taking up alot of oxygen at the moment. It won't last. It did not for Trump and it won't for him. When attacks and damaging articles start coming out on him(attacks he likely won't have the money to combat), he'll deflate, and his supporters will probably go for one of the candidates that are considered conservative and anti establishment, such as Bachmann or Paul. The key is to show disappointed voters that Ron is the real deal. Cain may be a good man, but Paul's had a long record of opposing big government and standing up for conservative principals. That's the type of red meat the primary voters love to hear, and I somehow don't think Cain voters have Romney as their second choice. The reason they like him is that he's an "outsider." If we can show them Ron is as well I think many of them will get on board.
But bottom line, now's not the time to get discouraged. Iowa's really make or break, but with Romney pissing off the state, Palin not likely to run, and Gingrich disliked, I still feel confidant about our team's chances.
Badger Paul
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"but now he is running as a libertarian and the GOP will not follow."
Then you have to expand the number of people who are going vote for RP, you have to find his support get them to register as Republicans. That's the bottom line. Trying to out-Bachmann, Bachmann is not going to work. The only incentive average Republican voters have to support RP is if he looks like a winner, that he can pull new people to the party and build it.
Now this can be done but it takes good organization to do so. To identify your voters and get them to the polls. That's what the straw poll is about. That's what the caucus is about. And unlike the other candidates, we have an actual organization in Iowa to do this and the passionate volunteers to get it done.
Geez, what doe it say about Iowa voters when Romney won't even put anything into the state and he's in first place in the poll? It says they really haven't focused on the race at all yet.
Then you have to expand the number of people who are going vote for RP, you have to find his support get them to register as Republicans. That's the bottom line. Trying to out-Bachmann, Bachmann is not going to work. The only incentive average Republican voters have to support RP is if he looks like a winner, that he can pull new people to the party and build it.
Now this can be done but it takes good organization to do so. To identify your voters and get them to the polls. That's what the straw poll is about. That's what the caucus is about. And unlike the other candidates, we have an actual organization in Iowa to do this and the passionate volunteers to get it done.
Geez, what doe it say about Iowa voters when Romney won't even put anything into the state and he's in first place in the poll? It says they really haven't focused on the race at all yet.
georgiaboy
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what does the favorability rating really reprsent, and how could it change so drastically, even though the poll numbers didn't change statistically as much?
on the surface, it seems to point to a fickleness that I thought the Iowans were less susceptible to.
on the surface, it seems to point to a fickleness that I thought the Iowans were less susceptible to.
I think it means that whatever percentage considers him unfavorable will not vote for him at all. Palin and Trump have high unfavorablity and therefore unlikely to pull in new voters than the ones that already support them for President. For example, even if you choice is candidate #1 you would still vote for candidate #2 if they won the nomination. I think it boils down to the general appeal of the candidate overall.
R3volutionJedi
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I'd be surprised if Palin ran.
Polls this far out should be taken with a grain of salt and PPP is a Democratic pollster to begin with (though they leaned Republican in 2010). Not to mention the margin of errror is +/-4.5% and the sample was pretty small too, being only 481 Republicans. According to this poll the field is a lot tighter too since last time, which is a good thing.
However, the unfavorables jumped 12% and we only picked up 2% of the 41% that went up for grabs. Our favorables also dropped 13%. I'm not exactly sure what to make of this. I would say that the debate hurt us, but I doubt many Iowans watched the debate. However, if Ron's performance in the debate and all his comments in the last month and a half are the reason for these results, there isn't much we can do about it. Ron isn't a slick/coached politician and he probably isn't going to change his ways and the way he presents the message, which is raw and unfiltered. The only other thing that happened in the time span between the two polls was the official campaign beginning operations in Iowa. Maybe this is just an outlier. Whatever it is, these results make the June 5th moneybomb and the way we present our message all the more important and make me even more cautious about the grassroots phonebank operation.
As for the straw poll effort being hurt, I don't think they will be. The straw poll is mainly a GOTV operation and these polls won't really affect that.
While at the Leadership Institute's Campaign Management School with Austin we were told that, "The one thing polling IS NOT is a predictor. It's an indicator that should be used to help craft strategies."
However, the unfavorables jumped 12% and we only picked up 2% of the 41% that went up for grabs. Our favorables also dropped 13%. I'm not exactly sure what to make of this. I would say that the debate hurt us, but I doubt many Iowans watched the debate. However, if Ron's performance in the debate and all his comments in the last month and a half are the reason for these results, there isn't much we can do about it. Ron isn't a slick/coached politician and he probably isn't going to change his ways and the way he presents the message, which is raw and unfiltered. The only other thing that happened in the time span between the two polls was the official campaign beginning operations in Iowa. Maybe this is just an outlier. Whatever it is, these results make the June 5th moneybomb and the way we present our message all the more important and make me even more cautious about the grassroots phonebank operation.
As for the straw poll effort being hurt, I don't think they will be. The straw poll is mainly a GOTV operation and these polls won't really affect that.
While at the Leadership Institute's Campaign Management School with Austin we were told that, "The one thing polling IS NOT is a predictor. It's an indicator that should be used to help craft strategies."
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Teaser Rate
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Why? Cain would almost certainly be better than Obama.
I agree that the phone banking is risky. I wonder if the campaign is screening volunteers or providing scripts and monitoring calls...anyone know what type of operation is going in IOWA.
Michigan11
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LOL You guys are all crazy, gtfo!
This is politics, get your balls out of your back pockets.
That said...
Momentum is alligned with us right now, and 08' was an education campaign in most of our eyes, yet very few see the brilliance of Ron's tactical moves, politically speaking. Most supporters think he is naive. You have to look at things sometimes with a new perspective, and realize, 08' brought in quite a few victories in 2010, and has changed the debate, the publics mindset, Ron moved that mindset window, from a small one into a large sliding glass doorwall.
You can call that an education campaign, but that's such a simple view of how he is bringing many people into alignment very quickly. He stretches the minds, knowing they won't retract back 100%, then he has a window big enough to climb into when he is ready.
He knows politics, and he knows how to sell the people. He knows what he is doing. Look at the big picture people! The torch is burning like never before
This is politics, get your balls out of your back pockets.
That said...
Momentum is alligned with us right now, and 08' was an education campaign in most of our eyes, yet very few see the brilliance of Ron's tactical moves, politically speaking. Most supporters think he is naive. You have to look at things sometimes with a new perspective, and realize, 08' brought in quite a few victories in 2010, and has changed the debate, the publics mindset, Ron moved that mindset window, from a small one into a large sliding glass doorwall.
You can call that an education campaign, but that's such a simple view of how he is bringing many people into alignment very quickly. He stretches the minds, knowing they won't retract back 100%, then he has a window big enough to climb into when he is ready.
He knows politics, and he knows how to sell the people. He knows what he is doing. Look at the big picture people! The torch is burning like never before
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nate895
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Apparently, one cannot point out the obvious on this forum without getting neg repped. Good luck in y'all's endeavors, but I ain't hangin' around here much longer.
Teaser Rate
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That's nothing, you should see the number of negative rep points I got for suggesting that Bin Laden's assassination wasn't faked. Some people around here apparently have a really hard time accepting reality.
The polls in 08 didn't count because they were faked, and when Ron got the number of votes he was projected to get, that didn't count either because the voting results were faked, and when Obama got inaugurated, that didn't count either, because he wasn't an American citizen, and when Obama released his birth certificate, that didn't count either, because that too was fake.
nate895
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I don't touch conspiracy theories with ten foot poles for exactly this reason. You have to be cuckoo for cocoa puffs in order to be considered among the non-government conspirators or dupes or something.
Sola_Fide
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Yes, and even with the CRA controversy, Rand retooled, changed his rhetoric, and won.
I want to see Ron do this. I am not seeing it though.
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Michigan11
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The Revolution needs to focus and keep it together, we are playing a very big game here
S.Shorland
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Well,he was right about Bin Laden but Americans seem to be very thick.They should watch the film 'Mouse Hunt' wherein two brothers destroy their house in pursuit of a mouse.If you cut down all the laws to go after the Devil,where do you seek protection when he turns round on you?
AlexMerced
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Good News:
- Our poll numbers are going up despite favorability going down
- Being not in the top 3 keeps away from being a target at this point, and our poll number are high enough that we're not COMPLETELY dismissed
- The top 3 become targets, if you think Romney will allow Palin and Cain gain anymore ground on him at this pace, be sure he'll retaliate and vice versa.
- We're still second in NH
Bad News:
- I have a feeling Cain will be endorsed by Palin, Palin wants to beat Obama and knows she can't do it, and with Cains high favorability and similar in views, she seems the obvious choice for a Palin Endorsement.
- We REALLY need to do well in the Iowa Straw poll
- WE need to really focus on framing Ron for the general electorate, which means reshaping ourselves as well, cause Ron will not, which is why we love him. Although, this has always been our campaign, we wanted this, we have to make this happen, Ron is not entering this cause he was so thrilled to run again.
Bottom Line: We're not on a rush to the top, we're polling well, as we get close to the Iowa straw poll the gloves will come off so it's good to not be a target till we get closer, but we do need to focus some real on ground advocating for paul.
- Our poll numbers are going up despite favorability going down
- Being not in the top 3 keeps away from being a target at this point, and our poll number are high enough that we're not COMPLETELY dismissed
- The top 3 become targets, if you think Romney will allow Palin and Cain gain anymore ground on him at this pace, be sure he'll retaliate and vice versa.
- We're still second in NH
Bad News:
- I have a feeling Cain will be endorsed by Palin, Palin wants to beat Obama and knows she can't do it, and with Cains high favorability and similar in views, she seems the obvious choice for a Palin Endorsement.
- We REALLY need to do well in the Iowa Straw poll
- WE need to really focus on framing Ron for the general electorate, which means reshaping ourselves as well, cause Ron will not, which is why we love him. Although, this has always been our campaign, we wanted this, we have to make this happen, Ron is not entering this cause he was so thrilled to run again.
Bottom Line: We're not on a rush to the top, we're polling well, as we get close to the Iowa straw poll the gloves will come off so it's good to not be a target till we get closer, but we do need to focus some real on ground advocating for paul.
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