PPP Poll - Iowa GOP Presidential Primary

[rp08orbust]

I don't think so, I could be wrong, but if I remember correctly Ron did better in the caucus than he did in the polls leading up to them.

Fair enough. IIRC, his RCP average right before the caucus was about 7%.

 

[rp08orbust]

it might be because ron paul's supporters are probably more likely to actually show up and vote than any other candidate's.

2008 proved that to be true only to a very limited extent. The real lesson from 2008 was that the polls weren't wrong after all.

 

[BUSHLIED]

You're right - Ron is clearly running an educational campaign here.

Yeah that appears to have always been the case, spreading the idea of Liberty in hopes that it spreads like wild fire, which it has. However, doesn't mean that people are going to then vote for Paul. The two events are NOT linked. Let us not be confused or discouraged by that. As Ron has said, he is NOT the perfect candidate and has trouble at times with speeches, explaining ideas, slowing down, finishing his words and sentences. But the message is gaining support among young people.

The main problem you have is that GOP is splintered and it is not being unified by Paul, in fact, it is being divided further. One only had to attend the couple of CPAC conventions to see that. Also, the people behind the scenes, which are your wealthy special interest individuals do not have an interest in supporting Paul and that means that everything but the grassroots works against Paul. So, he is running into the wind yet is doing well because of the grassroots movement strength (which he is relying on almost exclusively for his support).

I would be surprised if he gets any major mainstream endorsement prior to IOWA Straw Poll, Romney and T-Paw will. It is things like that that matter to your average gop voter that is not surfing the internet or paying much attention to GOP politics...that is the group that comprises the other 20% of undecided that just go with the big names that the papers and pundits push on us...that's my take. So, those are the people you have to reach and convince to vote for him. Quite frankly, the law of large numbers suggests that within any large group of people you are going to have a regression towards a mean (average), you must target that group. The average American (IOWA) citizen and get them out to vote. So the message from Ron has to be tailered to this group, he is going to try to convince them with his standard message, then he is doing a disservice to his campaign..he should drop the legalization of drugs from these mid-western rural and suburban counties that comprise most of Iowa for starters.

As I said before, Ron MUST win IOWA to have any chance at all, IOWA absent of Bachman is his to lose because he should be able to mobilize all his supporters to vote in the straw poll and then during the caucus gain enough delegates. In 2008 Ron won a majority in only 1 county and a total of 10% garnering him 2 delegates out of 34. Iowa is driven by grassroots who stay with
the entire process. Fred Thompson had more votes but had no delegates because they didn't win majorities in any county.

 

[anaconda]

Is all our work in Iowa for nothing? How did we go down?

Is it safe to say that the Iowa poll differs greatly from the national poll? I thought we were in second or third and only about 6 or 7 points out of first. No?

 

[rich34]

2008 proved that to be true only to a very limited extent. The real lesson from 2008 was that the polls weren't wrong after all.

I'd agree with that. What's bad is I really think Rand Paul could take this field of candidates by storm. His articulate answers and political savvy would catapult him right to the top. There's no way Rand would have answered the heroin question the way Ron did, yet they both agree with the same position, but Rand would have answered that question in a more pleasing way to republican voters. Ron needs to get the memo and start taking pointers from the son. Don't get me wrong, I love Ron straight forwardness, but that's not going to win us the presidency. Rand's savvy will.

 

[The Dark Knight]

2008 proved that to be true only to a very limited extent. The real lesson from 2008 was that the polls weren't wrong after all.

that's true when talking about primaries but not caucuses. We did better in almost all the caucuses than what the polls showed. we got 21% in Washington state Caucus. 12% in Nevada caucus.
Actually the current ppp poll has Ron at 8% in Iowa and he got 9% in 08. so they are saying Ron has gone down in support in Iowa since 08? Not a chance in hell

 

[BUSHLIED]

that's true when talking about primaries but not caucuses. We did better in almost all the caucuses than what the polls showed. we got 21% in Washington state Caucus. 12% in Nevada caucus.
Actually the current ppp poll has Ron at 8% in Iowa and he got 9% in 08. so they are saying Ron has gone down in support in Iowa since 08? Not a chance in hell

It's been 3 years and demographics change and people move on from candidates, so it is entirely possibly that Ron's support is stable around 8-10% but remember this polls have a margin of error of several points in either direction so it could be as low as 3.5% or as high as 12.5% judging by the latest poll result of 8%. Furthermore, they are polling with automated calls during the Memorial day weekend when people go out of town, vacation etc...I would wait for another poll to come out.

 

[rp08orbust]

I would be surprised if he gets any major mainstream endorsement prior to IOWA Straw Poll, Romney and T-Paw will. It is things like that that matter to your average gop voter that is not surfing the internet or paying much attention to GOP politics...that is the group that comprises the other 20% of undecided that just go with the big names that the papers and pundits push on us...that's my take. So, those are the people you have to reach and convince to vote for him. Quite frankly, the law of large numbers suggests that within any large group of people you are going to have a regression towards a mean (average), you must target that group. The average American (IOWA) citizen and get them out to vote. So the message from Ron has to be tailered to this group, he is going to try to convince them with his standard message, then he is doing a disservice to his campaign..he should drop the legalization of drugs from these mid-western rural and suburban counties that comprise most of Iowa for starters.

As I said before, Ron MUST win IOWA to have any chance at all, IOWA absent of Bachman is his to lose because he should be able to mobilize all his supporters to vote in the straw poll and then during the caucus gain enough delegates. In 2008 Ron won a majority in only 1 county and a total of 10% garnering him 2 delegates out of 34. Iowa is driven by grassroots who stay with
the entire process. Fred Thompson had more votes but had no delegates because they didn't win majorities in any county.

Is IOWA an acronym? What does it stand for?

 

[nate895]

They know how to poll the Iowa Caucuses, so Paul's more motivated base will not be as big of a factor as it would be in, say, WA or NV or any other caucus. Furthermore, the Iowans know how important they are compared to every other caucus, so they have a much higher turnout for them. Also, I'm willing to bet even odds that at least one of the Palin, Bachmann, and Cain trio will have a motivated base come caucus night. The GOP is super-motivated this cycle, and likes the current crop of candidates. 2008 was an anomaly because the Conservative vote had little place to go until Huckabee surged, and the GOP was almost certain they would lose in November. Now they have a choice while the NE wing of the party has Romney, with Pawlenty and Gingrich being minor candidates in comparison (although Pawlenty might appeal to a conservative voter here and there, which might be an advantage).

 

[Billay]

What do you expect when you make dumbass comments?

 

[The Dark Knight]

If Iowa was a primary state and not a caucus state then I think PPP poll would be pretty accurate. caucuses are pretty hard to predict. Ames Straw poll will be a better indicator of who will get their folks to turn out and go vote. Thats why Ames is so important

 

[nate895]

If Iowa was a primary state and not a caucus state then I think PPP poll would be pretty accurate. caucuses are pretty hard to predict. Ames Straw poll will be a better indicator of who will get their folks to turn out and go vote. Thats why Ames is so important

The thing about Iowa is that they study the caucus dynamic over time, and so, absent some kind of wild anomaly (like 10,000+ Democrats turned R for the caucus), the polls for Iowa will be relatively accurate compared to other caucuses. They are almost never spot on, like primaries can be, but they are decent indicators for a plan of action.

 

[Inkblots]

In other words, start acting like Rand! "So Rand you would legalize heroin" Rand: "Well, I would say we need to look at the drug war and if it's being cost effective and if not we may need to cut spending because it's not be effective..."

Close, but no cigar. Rand would answer, "Well, the interesting thing is I would say..."

 

[rp08orbust]

Wasn't Iowa the only caucus before Super Tuesday? If so, then part of Ron's outperforming the polls in caucus states would be because other candidates had started dropping out.

 

[rp08orbust]

What do you expect when you make dumbass comments?

Dumbass replies? Lighten up dude.

 

[nate895]

Wasn't Iowa the only caucus before Super Tuesday? If so, then part of Ron's outperforming the polls in caucus states would be because other candidates had started dropping out.

Nevada, Maine, and Hawaii also had caucuses before Super Tuesday, but Maine was barely reported in the media and Hawaii doesn't report the results of their caucuses.

 

[Inkblots]

I think we can all agree this poll is disappointing, but I do want to point out that the caucuses, and even the Ames Straw poll, are still many months off. Even with these rhetorical miscalculations, not that many people are paying attention yet. Dr. Paul has made some mis-steps, to be sure, but there's still plenty of time to build up some momentum. So let's stay positive!

 

[trey4sports]

Ames is huge for us. 'Nuff said.....

 

[Billay]

I was talking about Ron Pauls poorly articulated comments on Bin Laden and why he even discusses Heroin is beyond me.

 

[libertybrewcity]

Primary poll in a caucus state?