PPP Poll - Iowa GOP Presidential Primary

[The Dark Knight]

Just a positive thought here...we are within the Margin of error for 2nd place without Palin running.

 

[steph3n]

RP's favorability rating dropped 25 points from April 17 to May 27. The only significant event that occurred during that time span was the May 5 debate.

Bin Laden, and bin laden comments....

 

[rp08orbust]

Just a positive thought here...we are within the Margin of error for 2nd place without Palin running.

Polls that try to show what the results would be if a certain candidate withdrew from consideration are not appearing to be very accurate.

 

[The Dark Knight]

sarah palin is not a candidate so she has not withdrawn.

 

[jmdrake]

Yeah we've got our work cut out for us. But this go round there are polls that have Ron in double digits and in a solid second. Don't read too much into any single poll.

 

[rp08orbust]

Yeah we've got our work cut out for us. But this go round there are polls that have Ron in double digits and in a solid second. Don't read too much into any single poll.

I think the huge drop in Ron's favorability rating is the most significant part of this poll.

 

[The Dark Knight]

The only poll I'm worried about in 2011 is the Ames straw Poll...and I'm not even that worried about it because I know we can win it.

 

[scottditzen]

I have so much more faith in Ron than I do with the voters.

Especially republican voters.

Sad reality.

 

[ronpaulhawaii]

There is good and bad in this poll. For certain it should be a wake up call for many. I agree that the OBL and Drug demagoguery has hurt us in this poll, but that should be correctable given time and good canvassing/messaging techniques. I cannot stress enough the need to do everything we can to appeal to these voters:

If one looks at 2008, 70% of voters over 45 actually voted, while 58% of those under 45 actually voted. And these numbers are from the year where both Obama and Ron Paul both massively increased the youth vote...

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2008/tables.html

Must. Work. Smarter.

 

[scottditzen]

I have so much more faith in Ron than I do with the voters.

Especially republican voters.

Sad reality.

 

[trey4sports]

Hopefully Ron will have enough money in the coffers to run a strong campaign.

 

[MRoCkEd]

Ouch, Bin Laden and drug comments really hurt.

 

[KurtBoyer25L]

Anyone ready to start courting those libertarians, independents etc. to register and caucus for Ron yet?

 

[nate895]

Nice we are going up.

Apparently you didn't notice that Paul's fave numbers dropped more than...anyone else's!

RP's favorability rating dropped 25 points from April 17 to May 27. The only significant event that occurred during that time span was the May 5 debate.

And the book hit store shelves. Oh, and there's Bin Laden.

Guys, this poll should be depressing. I know y'all won't want to admit it, but this proves Ron Paul is not doing his job. Whether you want to admit or not, Ron Paul is the person people are going to vote for. They want someone who represents them. Ron Paul had an amazing turnaround in popularity numbers over the past four years. He was deep in the negative territory last primary season. The kind of turnaround from those hig negs (-30 to -40 range) doesn't just happen. There was a change of heart about a lot of things in the GOP, and Ron Paul ran as a Constitutional Conservative last time, which is where over half of the party is right now, but now he is running as a libertarian and the GOP will not follow. If Ron Paul would have just said stuff in a more tactful way than he did, this wouldn't have happened. I am not sure he can recover because a lot of what he has been saying is backed up in his book, and, whether you want to admit or not, Republican voters read, which is why conservative books hit the NY Times bestseller's list almost every time one is released.

 

[sailingaway]

I think we know this isn't a good poll, I think we are resisting pretending we know precisely why, but I agree the spin on bin Laden has been brutal. He has to make it clear he both sought letters of marque in 2001 to do this CONSTITUTIONALLY ten years ago, and that he was making a point about how badly Obama had messed up foreign policy with Pakistan because even with BUSH we could count on Pakistan to turn over terrorists, even high level ones. The GOP will be happy to see that he knows Obama was worse than Bush on at least that one issue of foreign policy (as well as with not getting congressional approval of at least some sort before going into Libya). When I describe it that way, conservatives routinely turn to a "Yeah! Obama sucks!" mentality, and poke fun at the Nobel Peace candidate. It is what it is.

 

[nate895]

I think we know this isn't a good poll, I think we are resisting pretending we know precisely why, but I agree the spin on bin Laden has been brutal. He has to make it clear he both sought letters of marque in 2001 to do this CONSTITUTIONALLY ten years ago, and that he was making a point about how badly Obama had messed up foreign policy with Pakistan because even with BUSH we could count on Pakistan to turn over terrorists, even high level ones. The GOP will be happy to see that he knows Obama was worse than Bush on at least that one issue of foreign policy (as well as with not getting congressional approval of at least some sort before going into Libya). When I describe it that way, conservatives routinely turn to a "Yeah! Obama sucks!" mentality, and poke fun at the Nobel Peace candidate. It is what it is.

The problem is that Ron Paul has competition this time, and I'm not talking about pro-choice Gary Johnson. Last time he was alone on the stage in his views as far as the Constitution goes. Did anyone talk about the Constitution besides Paul, really? Huckabee threw a few bones out in that direction, but not much really. However, this time, Palin, Bachmann, and Cain are all going to run very similar to Paul '08 minus blowback. The rhetoric is going to be all about restoring our Constitution from those folks, and most GOP voters trust those three, whether they should or not.

 

[The Dark Knight]

Nate brings up some good points, the others will act like they care about the constitution and the sheeple will follow them off a cliff. Many also want Herman Cain to win just to prove republicans are not racists. Time to run 3rd party? We aint going to win the nomination anyways. I was not open to running 3rd party at first but if Herman Cain wins the nomination I would love to see Ron run as a third party candidate just to piss off the establishment.

 

[Inkblots]

Time to run 3rd party? We aint going to win the nomination anyways. I was not open to running 3rd party at first but if Herman Cain wins the nomination I would love to see Ron run as a third party candidate just to piss off the establishment.

Or better yet, Ron could start trying to present his views in the most appealing possible light for Republican primary voters, so that he could actually have a chance of, you know, winning.

 

[Jay Tea]

I'm definitely calling BS on Gingrich not changing at all from the previous poll. He's shot himself in the foot repeatedly.

 

[nate895]

I'm definitely calling BS on Gingrich not changing at all from the previous poll. He's shot himself in the foot repeatedly.

Gingrich's favorability plummeted, almost as bad as Paul's.