New Iowa Quinnipiac Poll - Rand at 6%

[Jonderdonk]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-...rsity-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2291

Rand is in fifth place with 6%.

Carson - 28%
Trump - 20%
Rubio - 13%
Cruz - 10%
Paul - 6%
Bush - 5%
Fiorina -5%
Jindal - 3%
Kasich - 3%
Huckabee - 2%
Santorum - 1%
Christie - 1%
Gilmore - 0%
Graham - 0%
Pataki - 0%

Don't care/Undecided: 3%

 

[squirl22]

Thanks for posting this;was just trying to do that and screwed up the quotes so deleted it.

[TABLE="class: PollingTable"]
[TR]
[TD]With a big boost from women, Dr. Ben Carson leads Donald Trump 28 - 20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 10 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"] This compares to the results of a September 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 27 percent with Carson at 21 percent.

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"] Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 6 percent, with Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent each. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[65fastback2+2]

beginning of the fall of trump most likely

 

[hells_unicorn]

beginning of the fall of trump most likely

Yeah, it's definitely starting to look that way. It's also an indication that, for now, Carson is still on the rise. If Trump loses Iowa or starts to totally tank before Iowa, he's done. Every idiot I've heard supporting him has pointed to his so-called "inevitability" (because he stands for absolutely nothing) due to his constant lead in the polls. When that goes away, there is no reason for any of these sheep to follow him. The cult of celebrity, thankfully, never determines elections at the presidential level, though sadly some things that are almost as bad do just that.

What I find most interesting here is that Rand is ahead of both Bush and Fiorina, the former having tons of money and more media exposure, the latter having a ridiculously brazen media boost based on so-called "diversity" in the debating stage. Having said that, I really want to see him polling ahead of Cruz in Iowa, which has still yet to happen.

 

[Jeremy]

Wow Bush should drop out.

 

[erowe1]

Is this the first time Rand has been ahead of Bush?

 

[Todd]

Jindal and everyone below him are just wasting time.

 

[Liberty74]

beginning of the fall of trump most likely

It's starting later than I predicted yet still nice too see. Plenty of time for movement in this race. National polls are less relevant than Iowa and NH polls. Remember, 60% of supporters even for their particular candidate can change their minds. It's why Rand needs to continue to improve is positives so he is given a chance by those mind changes.

If Fox News and MSM pushes this as Trump falling, he will start to tank even further.

 

[jkob]

I think it is wishful thinking at this point to think Trump is just going to fade away, he can afford to lose Iowa since Trump seems like heavy favorite to win New Hampshire since Carson and Cruz won't. The level of Trump's actual support I think is hard to gauge considering his celebrity and nontraditional Republican views, I could see a lot of last minute people going with him for those reasons. The media has been trying to start a narrative that Trump's candidacy was on the brink collapsing for months now but every time they do that people push back and support him more. There will be backlash against any media narrative, they don't call him Teflon Don for nothing and he's essentially spent no money yet either.

It's pretty crazy, all these establishment candidates are total duds and I can't see any of them turning it around. Jeb has so much money but people like Rubio more than him who has the backing of Shelden Adelson, you'd think the powers that be would demand one drop out. I think Jeb probably will eventually with the understanding that his son George P will ascend to the thrown eventually. Right now it looks like a brokered convention. Carson I think is a guy that might get knocked down the more people see of him and when faced with more criticism, he's very socially conservative but weak on other conservative issues.. Cruz is trying to position himself nicely, he has a lot of money and will make a play for the anti-establishment votes, I see the strategy.

I don't know what Rand can do, he needs controversy and to get his name in the news but he's spent the last few months poo-pooing that very concept. It's a game, it's about winning, I thought that was the whole point of the pandering. Nobody cares about your tax plan or what you have done in the senate, you have to sell yourself. I'm not sure what candidates votes Rand is trying to court, it seems like others are more apt to peel off his. Look at Carson, he started shooting up in the polls when he made comments about Muslims and started trashing the media. Rand need to drop the rational touchy-feely moderate persona and take a more radical angry one, that's what people want. I'm not sure it even makes a difference any more since Trump isn't afraid at all of playing to the margins which use to belong to Ron, the dude basically just blamed Dubya for 9/11 in a GOP primary and gives lip service to all types of conspiracies.

He needs to distinguish himself as much as possible from the rest of the field, he's been sounding better lately but he needs to be an extremist for liberty

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Well, glad that this is by one of the more reputable polling firms. 6% while not much, it does show a rise in support. Combined with higher positives over the past couple polls. Good trend.

 

[erowe1]

The level of Trump's actual support I think is hard to gauge considering his celebrity and nontraditional Republican views, I could see a lot of last minute people going with him for those reasons.

I definitely expect the exact opposite to happen. The last minute mind changes will be against Trump not for him.

 

[RabbitMan]

Woohoo! Remember, there is a lot of Liberty big money waiting in the wings in case Rand actually brought his poll numbers up and became a contender again.

Keep it up Team Rand! We are almost over the hump!

Interesting take-away: Rand is viewed best by Tea Parties and Moderates/Liberals. Wicked!

 

[Peace&Freedom]

If Rand does not win, one solution for the next cycle is to persuade our own movement friendly libertarian billionaire, say a Peter Thiel, into running for President. Then at least that candidate will have the money to fight the major early wars for IA and NH.

 

[CPUd]

I think it is wishful thinking at this point to think Trump is just going to fade away, he can afford to lose Iowa since Trump seems like heavy favorite to win New Hampshire since Carson and Cruz won't. The level of Trump's actual support I think is hard to gauge considering his celebrity and nontraditional Republican views, I could see a lot of last minute people going with him for those reasons. The media has been trying to start a narrative that Trump's candidacy was on the brink collapsing for months now but every time they do that people push back and support him more. There will be backlash against any media narrative, they don't call him Teflon Don for nothing and he's essentially spent no money yet either.

It's pretty crazy, all these establishment candidates are total duds and I can't see any of them turning it around. Jeb has so much money but people like Rubio more than him who has the backing of Shelden Adelson, you'd think the powers that be would demand one drop out. I think Jeb probably will eventually with the understanding that his son George P will ascend to the thrown eventually. Right now it looks like a brokered convention. Carson I think is a guy that might get knocked down the more people see of him and when faced with more criticism, he's very socially conservative but weak on other conservative issues.. Cruz is trying to position himself nicely, he has a lot of money and will make a play for the anti-establishment votes, I see the strategy.

I don't know what Rand can do, he needs controversy and to get his name in the news but he's spent the last few months poo-pooing that very concept. It's a game, it's about winning, I thought that was the whole point of the pandering. Nobody cares about your tax plan or what you have done in the senate, you have to sell yourself. I'm not sure what candidates votes Rand is trying to court, it seems like others are more apt to peel off his. Look at Carson, he started shooting up in the polls when he made comments about Muslims and started trashing the media. Rand need to drop the rational touchy-feely moderate persona and take a more radical angry one, that's what people want. I'm not sure it even makes a difference any more since Trump isn't afraid at all of playing to the margins which use to belong to Ron, the dude basically just blamed Dubya for 9/11 in a GOP primary and gives lip service to all types of conspiracies.

He needs to distinguish himself as much as possible from the rest of the field, he's been sounding better lately but he needs to be an extremist for liberty

Agree Trump started the race putting it all on NH, didn't really plan on the other stuff happening. He needs to see a couple candidates beating him in NH before he decides to drop out.

Expect Rand will keep doing what he's been doing. Before the noise, they didn't care about national opinion polling- Iowa and NH numbers were always higher than the national numbers.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

 

[The Northbreather]

B

I don't know what Rand can do, he needs controversy and to get his name in the news but he's spent the last few months poo-pooing that very concept. It's a game, it's about winning, I thought that was the whole point of the pandering. Nobody cares about your tax plan or what you have done in the senate, you have to sell yourself. I'm not sure what candidates votes Rand is trying to court, it seems like others are more apt to peel off his. Look at Carson, he started shooting up in the polls when he made comments about Muslims and started trashing the media. Rand need to drop the rational touchy-feely moderate persona and take a more radical angry one, that's what people want. I'm not sure it even makes a difference any more since Trump isn't afraid at all of playing to the margins which use to belong to Ron, the dude basically just blamed Dubya for 9/11 in a GOP primary and gives lip service to all types of conspiracies.

He needs to distinguish himself as much as possible from the rest of the field, he's been sounding better lately but he needs to be an extremist for liberty

I would be down if Rand had a visible "Collectivists and warmongers are ruining everything" type attitude in the news

 

[Feelgood]

beginning of the fall of trump most likely

LOL didnt you get the memo? He is already the presumptive nominee!

 

[eleganz]

Wow thedonald has finally been dethroned, this is happening earlier than I would have expected.

Nice upward trend for Rand lately. Seriously, kudos to all of the hardcore liberty activists who NEVER WAVERED when the odds were all against Rand. When seemingly everyone turned their backs on him, all of the negative press lying and smearing him, WE were there for him. Even some in the forums began to shake their knees and try to save their own pride vs. sticking with Rand all the way. Those who are serious about the liberty movement, I have a message!
We're riding this out to the very bitter fucking end because its no one but Paul!

He still hasn't broken the 2-6% all within margin of error since before the first debate. Once he's broken into 7%, its all momentum from there.


Am I reading this right? Only 1% of people think Rand has a chance to win the general? If thats the case, that is his biggest problem, people don't get that he is the most electable...Somehow Romney conveyed that message very well.

MOST IMPORTANT FOR REP PRES NOMINEE Q55
Shares Strong Honest/
Values Leader CanWin Trustworthy

Bush 1% 6% 8% 3%
Carson 27 18 32 40
Christie 1 2 2 -
Cruz 22 6 3 10
Fiorina 5 7 9 5
Gilmore - - - -
Graham - - 1 -
Huckabee 1 1 2 2
Jindal 1 3 1 5
Kasich 1 1 6 1
Pataki - - 1 1
Paul 11 5 1 5
Rubio 13 15 20 8
Santorum 1 - - 2
Trump 15 35 13 15
DK/NA 2 2 1 3

 

[RabbitMan]

Wow thedonald has finally been dethroned, this is happening earlier than I would have expected.

Nice upward trend for Rand lately. Seriously, kudos to all of the hardcore liberty activists who NEVER WAVERED when the odds were all against Rand. When seemingly everyone turned their backs on him, all of the negative press lying and smearing him, WE were there for him. Even some in the forums began to shake their knees and try to save their own pride vs. sticking with Rand all the way. Those who are serious about the liberty movement, I have a message!
We're riding this out to the very bitter fucking end because its no one but Paul!

He still hasn't broken the 2-6% all within margin of error since before the first debate. Once he's broken into 7%, its all momentum from there.


Am I reading this right? Only 1% of people think Rand has a chance to win the general? If thats the case, that is his biggest problem, people don't get that he is the most electable...Somehow Romney conveyed that message very well.

MOST IMPORTANT FOR REP PRES NOMINEE Q55
Shares Strong Honest/
Values Leader CanWin Trustworthy

Bush 1% 6% 8% 3%
Carson 27 18 32 40
Christie 1 2 2 -
Cruz 22 6 3 10
Fiorina 5 7 9 5
Gilmore - - - -
Graham - - 1 -
Huckabee 1 1 2 2
Jindal 1 3 1 5
Kasich 1 1 6 1
Pataki - - 1 1
Paul 11 5 1 5
Rubio 13 15 20 8
Santorum 1 - - 2
Trump 15 35 13 15
DK/NA 2 2 1 3

I don't know what he can do to fix that. He has repeated over and over again that he performs best in a general against Hillary in battleground states won by Obama.

If people don't want to listen, you can't make them.

 

[ds21089]

I don't know what he can do to fix that. He has repeated over and over again that he performs best in a general against Hillary in battleground states won by Obama.

If people don't want to listen, you can't make them.

He needs to use fear tactics seeing how that seems to always work on people. Instead of simply stating how he performs best he should rephrase it as, "Polls have shown across the states that I beat Hilary Clinton more than anyone else here. If you don't want Clinton in office, then vote for me" I know it states the obvious, but most of these viewers are simple-minded. Make them associate Paul losing = Clinton having a higher chance of winning. I think with that alone he'd be getting some anti-Clinton votes as well as showing people that he WOULD win the general election if he were the nominee. This needs to be said at the debate with many viewers, not just in random interviews.