POLL: Buttigieg, Sanders surge sets up 4-way tie in New Hampshire

[Warlord]

Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have seen a spike in support in New Hampshire and are now knotted with former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at the top, according to a new poll.

The latest Monmouth University survey of New Hampshire finds Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., with a narrow lead at 20 percent support, followed by Biden at 19 percent, Sanders at 18 percent and Warren at 15 percent.

The previous survey from September found Warren and Biden alone at the top, at 27 percent and 25 percent support, respectively. Warren has since lost 12 points and Biden has fallen by 6 points, while Buttigieg has gained 10 points and Sanders has gained 6 points.

Sanders boasts the best favorability rating in the field and is the only top-tier candidate to see his favorability rating improve since September. He sits at 69 favorable and 23 unfavorable, up from a 63-28 split in September.

Warren saw the largest drop in favorability, going from 74 positive and 19 negative to 64 positive and 27 negative in the latest poll.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) is the other big gainer but is still languishing in the mid-single digits, picking up 4 points to come in at 6 percent support.

Seven percent of New Hampshire voters are undecided and are not leaning toward any candidate. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will not be on the ballot in New Hampshire and was not included in the survey.

“The race remains fairly wide open,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “To the extent that New Hampshire voters could take some cues from Iowa, it’s also worth keeping an eye on lower polling candidates like Klobuchar if any of the leading contenders stumble in the earlier Iowa contest.”

The Iowa caucuses take place on Feb. 3, and the New Hampshire primary is on Feb. 11.

Rounding out the field in New Hampshire are Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) and billionaire Tom Steyer at 4 percent, businessman Andrew Yang at 3 percent, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) at 2 percent and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) at 1 percent.

It’s likely that this group of candidates will miss the cut for Tuesday's Democratic debate, which is poised to feature the fewest number of candidates to date. So far, only Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar have met the polling and fundraising thresholds.

Candidates have until Friday to reach 5 percent support in four national polls or 7 percent support in two early-state polls.

That’s particularly galling for Yang, who far exceeded the fundraising requirements with his $16.5 million fourth quarter haul. But Yang has only hit the polling threshold in one qualifying survey. He has been venting frustration at the lack of polls that have been released since the Dec. 20 Democratic debate.

Sanders tops the field among self-described liberals at 26 percent support, followed closely by Warren at 24 percent. Self-described moderate and conservative Democrats are split between Buttigieg at 25 percent and Biden at 22 percent.

Sanders has staked his campaign on turning out new voters who have not traditionally participated in the Democratic primary process, but Monmouth ran different analyses to include low-propensity voters and did not find much of a boost for Sanders.

When more weight is given to low-propensity voters, Biden, Buttigieg and Sanders are tied at 19 percent, with Warren coming in at 15 percent.

When more weight is given to traditional primary voters, Buttigieg opens up a wider lead with 23 percent support, followed by Biden at 20 percent, Sanders at 16 percent and Warren at 15 percent.

Monmouth also asked voters who their preference would be if only the top four candidates were in the race.

In that instance, Biden is in the top spot at 24 percent, followed by Buttigieg at 23 percent, Sanders at 21 percent and Warren at 18 percent. Five percent of Democrats said they would not support any of the top-four candidates. About half of those who would abstain support Gabbard at the moment.

The Monmouth University survey of 404 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire was conducted from Jan. 3 to 7 and has a 4.9 percentage point margin of error.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...rs-surge-to-set-up-4-way-tie-in-new-hampshire

 

[AngryCanadian]

I feel Sanders has a chance this year no thanks to Trump's decision to attack Iran in Iraq.

 

[timosman]

https://genesiustimes.com/deceased-...es-into-4th-place-in-democratic-primary-race/

 

[Warlord]

I feel Sanders has a chance this year no thanks to Trump's decision to attack Iran in Iraq.

Yeah definitely but he's losing support in NH. What's going on [MENTION=3169]Anti Federalist[/MENTION]?

 

[Warlord]

Related:

Is Pete Buttigieg a CIA plant?

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?542728-Is-Pete-Buttigieg-a-CIA-plant

 

[oyarde]

CIA boosting its candidate bootyjudge ?

 

[Anti Federalist]

Yeah definitely but he's losing support in NH. What's going on [MENTION=3169]Anti Federalist[/MENTION]?

Fluid race that's all...I still maintain that Sanders will win the NH democrat primary.

 

[Schifference]

Fluid race that's all...I still maintain that Sanders will win the NH democrat primary.

Who do you predict to ultimately become the Democrat Nominee?

 

[Anti Federalist]

Who do you predict to ultimately become the Democrat Nominee?

My crystal ball has had a lousy track record here lately...let's see:

Sanders/Warren

Maybe Sanders/ButtPlug

 

[Schifference]

My crystal ball has had a lousy track record here lately...let's see:

Sanders/Warren

Maybe Sanders/ButtPlug

Do you think they can prevail over Trump?

 

[Warlord]

Trump can't afford to lose MI. I think he's done.

2020 Democrats top Trump in Michigan match-ups: poll

A poll in Michigan finds several 2020 Democratic White House hopefuls leading President Trump in hypothetical match-ups in the crucial battleground state, according to The Detroit News.

The Glengariff Group poll showed former Vice President Joe Biden with the widest lead, at 50 percent to Trump’s 43 percent, followed by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 47 percent to 41 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with a 4-point lead, 49 percent to 45 percent.

Both Biden and Sanders have lost ground compared to another survey conducted in June, when they both led Trump in hypothetical Michigan match-ups, 53 percent to 41 percent. Bloomberg had not yet entered the race at the time of the earlier poll.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg both lead Trump in the new survey by 2 points, within its margin of error.

Pollsters also found intensity levels at historic highs for Democrats, Republicans and independents.

"The more we do polling, the more the numbers look the same to me," Glengariff founder Richard Czuba told the newspaper, noting the continued Democratic advantage in the state. He added that Trump could still win the state, depending on the Democratic nominee.

Trump’s 10,704-vote victory in Michigan in 2016 was the slimmest margin of the three pivotal states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — that swept him into the White House.

The new poll was conducted among 600 likely Michigan voters between Jan. 3 and Jan. 7. It has a 4-point margin of error.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...democrats-top-trump-in-michigan-matchups-poll

 

[Swordsmyth]

The Demoncrats will have a brokered convention and Hitlery will take the nomination.
None of them can beat Trump.

 

[Warlord]

The Demoncrats will have a brokered convention and Hitlery will take the nomination.
None of them can beat Trump.

The poll is MI should be concerning.

 

[Swordsmyth]

The poll is MI should be concerning.

Not really.

 

[AngryCanadian]

The Demoncrats will have a brokered convention and Hitlery will take the nomination.
None of them can beat Trump.

None of them expect Sanders and whats Trump going to do in the debates? act like a child and throw insults towards the person?
Trump has lost the anti war movement this year. Nothing that he will say about the middle east or Syria will make voters of the anti war side believe in your clown.

 

[Warlord]

Not really.

He only won MI by 10k votes. He can't afford to lose it. He also won FL by only 1%. I predict he's going to lose to any Democrat.

 

[Swordsmyth]

He only won MI by 10k votes. He can't afford to lose it. He also won FL by only 1%. I predict he's going to lose to any Democrat.

Polls are always biased to push people towards the left and polls this early mean absolutely nothing.

Trump has it in the bag and the left has no credible candidate.

 

[Warlord]

Polls are always biased to push people towards the left and polls this early mean absolutely nothing.

Trump has it in the bag and the left has no credible candidate.

Not polls but 2016. Trump won Mi-WI-PA by 75k votes. He is seriously in trouble especially with the current mess in the Mid East.

 

[AngryCanadian]

Not polls but 2016. Trump won Mi-WI-PA by 75k votes. He is seriously in trouble especially with the current mess in the Mid East.

Trump could actually win this year when the Iraqi happened GW Bush won his re election dispute the negative news stories from Iraq that were happening so in theory he could win as long he is not pushed further. I still think Trump was dragged into doing this air strike though, judging from the press briefing he gave he clearly didn't look so good.

 

[Warlord]

Trump could actually win this year when the Iraqi happened GW Bush won his re election dispute the negative news stories from Iraq that were happening so in theory he could win as long he is not pushed further. I still think Trump was dragged into doing this air strike though, judging from the press briefing he gave he clearly didn't look so good.

Anything can happen between now and then.. the current mess could get worse as these things do and the economy could slow down sharply. He only beat Hillary by 75k in the battlegroun stakes. I think he;s going down but we'll see. I dont think he can repeat what he did in 2016 with all that's going on.

Remember he said he said he would bring troops home. The commercials are going to be brutal espcially if Sanders wins. They will play the clips of Trump and say he has broken his promises.