CNN/ORC: Rand 6th Bush 7th nationally

Thanks. I'm not a WSJ subscriber, but I was able to read enough.

Carson is still liked and respected, but it looks like his support has just lost confidence. If he drops out before Iowa, he will be keeping his powder dry for future endeavors, otherwise, he will be an afterthought in the future like Santorum. He is no dummy. I see an opportunity there.
 
One surprise...According to this poll Rand is doing best in the South. He's tied for 3rd at 9%. This kinda jives with the uptick in the SC polls. I don't get it, but it could mean that SC is not a lost cause after all.

Also, look at the CNN national trend for Rand. Last 3-4 months he's been between 3-5% every poll. Then magically -just before the CNN debate- he drops to 1%. Now he's back to 4%. Just a coincidence, I'm sure.

Finally: Everyone who named Rand as their pick for president was under the age of 50.
 
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limequat said:
One surprise...According to this poll Rand is doing best in the South. He's tied for 3rd at 9%. This kinda jives with the uptick in the SC polls. I don't get it, but it could mean that SC is not a lost cause after all.

Also, look at the CNN national trend for Rand. Last 3-4 months he's been between 3-5% every poll. Then magically -just before the CNN debate- he drops to 1%. Now he's back to 4%. Just a coincidence, I'm sure.
Click to expand...

Don't read too much into it when the margin of error is 4%.

The high numbers in the South are interesting... Perhaps this is due to his southern accent?
 
statist slayer said:
Don't read too much into it when the margin of error is 4%.
Click to expand...
MoE using a poll of 438 people to describe the population of 55 million national GOP voters is alot higher than +/- 4% . . .
-reason we need the hard numbers - Rand had what 19 that polled for him, and Christie had 22 out of the 438 responses used for Q7?
 
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Jan2017 said:
MoE using a poll of 438 people to describe the population of 55 million national GOP voters is alot higher than +/- 4% . . .
-reason we need the hard numbers - Rand had what 19 that polled for him, and Christie had 22 out of the 438 responses used for Q7?
Click to expand...

ZAxD4QU.png
 
Liberty74 said:
There is no trend. Rand has been fluctuating between 2% and 6% for months now nationally. And such is all within the margin of errors of those polls hence no real trend.

People read into the smallest damn things without really understanding.

Now, if Rand breaks into the 8-12% range nationally then yes, a clear trend would be occurring. Same would hold true in Iowa and NH if such started occurring.
Click to expand...

lol, you are half right. The people who think Rand surge is wrong. Rand's support is the same.

The trend is Christie rise, and if he gonna sucks more blood from the pretty much done for Bush. Even though in this particular poll, it said no change.

It isn't so much that Rand will rise. It is more if Bush will fall enough (which really 1 to 1.5% is all it need).

Cruz and Trump sucking Carson dry. Rubio and Christie is sucking Bush dry.
 
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movingstone said:
lol, you are half right. The people who think Rand surge is wrong. Rand's support is the same.

The trend is Christie rise, and if he gonna sucks more blood from the pretty much done for Bush.

It isn't so much that Rand will rise. It is more if Bush will fall enough (which really 1 to 2% is all it need).
Click to expand...

Yes! he can poll 4's and 6's and still beat Bush in Iowa. He could also beat Carson, but would probably require Rand breaking out of the 2-6 range.
 
CPUd said:
It is not a linear scale. The sample size to keep ~5% margin of error for 5000 (357) is not much different from the sample size needed for 50000000 (385).
Click to expand...

The sample proportion, ρ (rho)(using 438 people to describe 55,000,000) is a ridiculously small number that gets square-rooted -
I agree not linear and making it worse of a prediction than say using 438 samples to predict the opinion of 50,000
 
Jan2017 said:
The sample proportion, ρ (rho)(using 438 people to describe 55,000,000) is a ridiculously small number that gets square-rooted -
I agree not linear and making it worse of a prediction than say using 438 samples to predict the opinion of 50,000
Click to expand...

The problem with the polls are due to experimental design and sample methods. If you are having a problem with the math, take it up with Bayes.
 
CPUd said:
The problem with the polls are due to experimental design and sample methods. If you are having a problem with the math, take it up with Bayes.
Click to expand...
No problem with the math at all - 438/55,000,00 is a sample proportion too low for a MoE of 4%
 
Jan2017 said:
No problem with the math at all - 438/55,000,00 is a sample proportion too low for a MoE of 4%
Click to expand...

Agree. For 55,000,000 at 4%, they should use around 600. The best they could get from 438 is 4.68%.
 
supermario21 said:
If anything we can now say that regardless of the style campaign Rand ran he'd be where he's at now...I think he's done a great job the last 2 debates in terms of being closer to Ron and it really hasn't done that much...But the trend is good. If someone drops out Rand will be in position to definitely make the stage. And to be honest, he has no incentive to drop out before Kentucky so he'll be around even if he misses the main stage for a debate or two.
Click to expand...

I think rand will try to stretch it out until the end. I see that passion had at the beginning pop up in the last month. I'm sure ron will give him some pointers and rand will start 2016 in a great way! Just wait and see! :)
 
A few more of these and Rand should be eligible for the debate? When is the start date and cut off for the polls to count?
 
eleganz said:
A few more of these and Rand should be eligible for the debate? When is the start date and cut off for the polls to count?
Click to expand...

They're using the five (I think) most recent polls released prior a certain date, so that depends on how many polls come out...
 
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