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LOL. Just found this document for the criteria for the next debate. They hedged their bets...
New Iowa PPP poll: Rand at 3% with a 31% favorability rating
- Thread starter Brett85
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LOL. Just found this document for the criteria for the next debate. They hedged their bets...
J
Jan2017
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You mean the delegates count that comes out in June 2016 which Ron Paul won 21 - 1 (Iowa Governor gets automatic delegate seat)
Okay here is the problem with this poll.... The demographics are not specific enough. 18-45??? That is way to broad. How many 18-29 year olds voted? They can hide that information. Also 18-45 made up 28 percent in this poll. Last time around (and not having school in session) it was 31 percent. That number should go up if we do our job on the campuses. They also over poll 65+ by 4 percent. Rand will not get 3 percent... Your telling me about 18-20 percent of Ron paul voters are staying home or switching? Bull crap. They are also way off from last time on the identification of being conservative, liberal, moderate, etc. I am going to make some calls. Now isn't the time to crumble in fear. Rand is correct on the issues and I will fight for him.
Okie RP fan
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From a neutral perspective:
Rand tried way too hard and sounded and looked desperate going after Trump.
His attacks weren't calculated or coherent. He needs to work on that for next time, because he really missed the beat this time around.
Rand tried way too hard and sounded and looked desperate going after Trump.
His attacks weren't calculated or coherent. He needs to work on that for next time, because he really missed the beat this time around.
RecoveringNeoCon
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Agreed.
My brother and uncle, both conservative but not republican, texted me their thoughts about the debate. They both said rand did not do himself any favors at all, seemed juvenile.
Rand can do better. He will do better. Question is whether America is ready for this libertarianish conservatism. I'd bet no, but we're all in this until the end.
Jackie Moon
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Exactly. It's the beginning of August. It's 100 degrees outside. The first poll that actually counts happens with snow on the ground.
There are 6 full months of campaigning left before even the first vote is cast. Many speeches to be spoken, many hands to be shaken. Debates, commercials, TV interviews, endorsements, candidates leaving.
The phone from home program is only just getting started. Rand has a great team on the ground in Iowa.
At this point in summer 2012 Michelle Bachmann was leading the polls in Iowa with 32% and then 29%. Then Rick Perry came in and was leading at 29%. Then Cain at 37%, and then Gingrich at 33%.
In July 2011 Ron polled at 3% and 5% in Iowa. This was after being in the first two debates that were held in May and June.
We all know that Ron ended up finishing 3 points out of first with 21.5% and that Bachmann dropped out days after.
So, to think that a poll done now will look anything like the final Iowa vote doesn't seem like a safe bet. The amount of people that answer a poll in August does not matter... it's about how many you can actually get to show up to a caucus in February.
I will not be discouraged, I will not give up. There is work to be done, but there is time. No reason to overreact, no reason to panic... just keep grinding.
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Exactly this. They're not related for reliability until about a month or so before the election - and are merely arbitrary tools of manipulation until then. Eyes on the prize, not the propaganda - it'll take all our efforts to win.
+2
I'm outright exuberant about the debate performance. The time has never been better or more poignant to preach the message of limited government and liberty.
Got a new bumper sticker for the car. The current polling is what it is - guess what? The future is there for us to change. Now is the time to dig deep and hammer away at the Chris Christie's of the party - it hit a nerve with the RHINOs.
Liberty74
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For all the IDIOTS still promoting the "college" vote and youth vote, STOP STOP STOP. It's a failed marketing strategy and some of you obviously did not learn anything last go around. To win Iowa you have to poll extremely well with the 40, 50 and 60 crowd. You also have to poll VERY strong with Republican voters despite Iowa being an open caucus. You HAVE to win a good portion of the Republican vote say 20%. Getting a good chunk of the Independent votes is just cherry on top.
Okie RP fan
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The only way it fails is if you don't capitalize like the Democrats do and have aides in line to sign you up for the party.
Did Ron's campaign do this? Not to my knowledge, because Ron wasn't in it to win it, he was in it to educate and he did what he could and he succeeded. Registering a bunch of college kids was probably the last thing on his mind.
Again, the youth vote is only a waste if you don't capitalize off of it. Look and see how the Democrats work that.
Rand needs to work in college appearances and do this.
Liberty74
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And that might be round up to 1%, hence the *
I know your being facetious (treating a serious issue with deliberately inappropriate humor) and I could somewhat understand where you're coming from if there were absolutely no basis in this hypothesis. Point being, it's not like this information is being completely fabricated or simply pulled out of my ass. We know for a fact, to hell with the polls, that Ron Paul scored 20 to 21 percent of the actual vote on election day. That's truth, that's not some chemical allah making up fabricated stories or numbers that don't exist. We know this from 2012. The next thing we know as truth concerning polling numbers and Ron Paul is the horrendous and dishonest polling tactics used against Ron in both 2008 and 2012. With Ron they used different tactics what yes were caught on recorder and posted to you tube by many different participants. In many cases the polling firms using automated phone calls would simply read the list of candidates and ask you to select your candidate and it would very easily record the vote and say thank you and have a nice day. With Ron, obviously, it was never that easy. Supporters would select the number to record their vote for Ron and it in some cases would ask again as if the selection was number recorded asking them to vote again for the candidate they supported. Again, in some cases upon choosing the 2nd time for Ron Paul it would actually say thank you for choosing Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, or whoever the flavor of the month was at the time and record his vote as theirs. In other cases they would ask a 3rd time to select the candidate of their choose and after selecting a 3rd time it would simply hang up not leaving the participant not knowing where there vote went if recorded at all. These same tactics could very easily be being used against Rand Paul right now and how would we know? And of course these are just the polling tactics not counting all the other dirty rigging tactics they used during straw polls, the state and county conventions and of course everyone saw in the debates just how desperate they were in censoring one man. From the first debate alone we've already seen the former being played out, in fact, I'd say Rand got even less time than Ron did which could suggest he's even a bigger threat due to the organization that Ron built up that they know is in Rand's corner. Now back to the polling. From the little information we have, one of the last polls that came out of Iowa clearly showed that they're deliberately under polling both the 18 to 36 year old crowd and independents. This is obviously very important considering Ron won nearly 50% of that age group in the 2012 caucus. Now, since they have enough information now are they only using the demographic model to severely undercut Rand in the polls, or are they going farther and even using a mix of under polling Rand's demographics and using the shenanigans they used against Ron to prevent him from polling where he rightfully was until the time came to where these polling firm reputations were on the line? Who knows, but I do feel when you add up all the legit information we have, not some chemical allah BS that I'm pretty certain there's no way in hell that the man is only polling 3% in Iowa where his father carried 20%. Also, with Paul's supporters being as die hard as they are, of all the candidates his supporters are the least likely to jump ship and be supporting someone else, in fact, I see them not even voting if they're that upset with Rand.
My point being, yeah it's fun to point out chemical allah up there and act as if these numbers or suggestions are coming out of thin air and being totally fabricated like he was doing, but in Rand's case we have actual hard evidence from the previous two elections. Now if you want to say well, Rand is not going to turn these people out to vote due to them being burn out on the process fine, but to say this these allegations that I and many others are saying is being pulled out of my ass, well, you're the chemical allah in this case friend, not me...
Liberty74
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Do you know what you are talking about? In 2012 Republican Iowa caucuses 15% were youth (17-29) compared to 68% were age 45 and up. Ron won 48% of the youth and only about 13% of the 45+. It's why HE LOST. There just isn't enough youth votes to go around to make that big of a difference. Democrats do slightly better in getting the youth vote out at around 20% give or take. Still that 5 point upswing still isn't enough votes after they get distributed by 12 candidates. The older votes drown out the youth votes by 4 times.
Ron Paul got more youth votes than Romney and Santorum combined yet placed third in Iowa. The turn out numbers per age group are always about the same. It is what is it. It's better to work with reality than trying to change reality in regards to who votes in Republican caucuses and primaries.
Wilf
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The Iowa cacus moved from Janurary to Februrary. There is a bigger pool of youth voters that can potentially vote.
The biggest problem is the favorability ratings and not Rand's actual percentage. He still has time to turn things around, but he can't repeat the performance that he had at the last debate.
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