Iowa Caucuses Return Watching - OFFICIAL THREAD!!! (1/3/12)

Yep, Ron's becoming the anti-romney vote.

Newt's got too much baggage to stay afloat, and Santorum doesn't have wide enough appeal.

After Ron pulls second in NH, with Newt a distant third, and Santorum nowhere on the map, you tell me -- who's the anti-romney?

If Perry pulls out, Gingrich may win South Carolina. In which case three different people would have won the first three states. And if Santorum doesn't win SC I don't see him going further. We will have to see what happens in national polls after this. Florida isn't Ron's strong suit if Gingrich wins SC, but it had half its delegates cut I think for going early and those might go to Romney (mind you if that becomes the margin of a win, I'm sure the GOP will give the cut ones back.) It is just a long slog now.
 
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Behind the scenes at CNN and Fox there's probably high fives and "hehehehehe we got him hehehehehehe"
 
It is still possible that Ron Paul could send more Iowa delegates to Florida than Santorum and Romney in June to the GOP convention.
 
Why are people assuming Perry will endorse Paul? Just because he talked about the FED a couple times? Remember when Perry said his ideal VP would be a mix of Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich?
 
Btw I think the campaign was right.. Gingrich is the man to beat. He is the candidate for the neocons and anti Romney. Santorum...well he is what the dictionary says about him.

You're right. Santorum is going nowhere. We need to get second in NH and then go after Gingrich hard. He's still the one to beat I feel. We can still do this.
 
The percentages round, and currently it's 24.7% S, 24.67% R, 21.4% P, so it could easily end up being 24, 24, 22.
 
we need the campaign to quit saying 'I'll cut a trillion WITHOUT saying 'without cutting senior entitlements or veterans benefits'. They are MISSING his biggest sell with that age group.

we don't need to sell to the kids. you need to get them to the polls. they aren't paying close attention to the message. they know that ron paul doesn't suck. the other ones suck. the most hardcore fans can talk the issues. these are 17-29 year olds.

I would be very surprised if this race didn't get closer.

We had 500 people there for 10 days or so. Every volunteer gets one new voter a day. That should be 500 votes x 10 = 5000 votes. We have a lot of precincts left. They're in counties with large cities. The volunteer has a fistful of cash, and just buys beers for everybody everyday for 10 days. That could've happened. Those could be the precincts that are still out. There is no evidence that happened.
 
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This is interesting...

Doug Wead, what is the plan now? NH win? is that at all possible?

To be honest, I think that'd be a real longshot -- but strong second, taking delegates, is very possible -- and if we're closer to mitt than to newt (or better yet, huntsman), it just solidifies us as the anti-romney vote.
 
We still don't know how New Hampshirites will react to this. They may not be expecting Paul to do anything in Iowa, and he still might get a bounce from this, especially if Romney finishes second
The Republican nomination has never been in the cards. Getting one-on-one with Romney, however, would have been a huge achievement. Ultimately, Ron Paul couldn't convince Iowans that he was an acceptable "not-Romney" alternative. When Gingrich collapsed, his supporters went to Santorum. Don't blame the media. They didn't take the polls.

Santorum is going nowhere. His negatives will soon destroy him. Everyone in Washington knows he's a flake. So come South Carolina, Republicans will still be looking for a "not-Romney" alternative. Paul may get a second chance to get one-on-one with Romney. Gingrich and Santorum will skip New Hampshire and concentrate on South Carolina. But now RP will have to worry about Huntsman in New Hampshire where previously he might have hoped to win over Huntsman supporters.

Remember, however, that nationally Ron Paul has never been looked upon as a contender. Outside of Iowa people haven't been paying much attention. The problem isn't that we lose ground with Iowa. The problem is that we don't gain ground, and we're way behind.

Still, Ron Paul is going to see this through. He will win delegates. He won't win the nomination, but that was never in the cards. He WILL be invited to speak at the GOP convention this year. There WILL be attempts to win his endorsement, and to win over Ron Paul supporters. Ron Paul organizers around the country WILL be recruited by Congressmen seeking re-election. All of these things will come at a price. The only question is just how much the campaign will influence these decisions and that can't actually be answered yet because the campaign is not finished.

Meanwhile, we shouldn't want Ron Paul to become president. The economy is going to tank again, and probably not before the election. The last thing we need is for Ron Paul to become president and then get blamed for tanking the economy. This country is headed downhill financially, economically, and diplomatically. These campaigns aren't about preventing it. It's too late for that. These campaigns are about who is going to pick up the pieces. We're going to collapse just like the Soviet Union did, and we don't want an authoritarian solution to the problems that arise from it. That is why Ron Paul's movement is still so important.
 
What we need to do is educate people on Ron Paul's foreign policy. That is the main thing keeping republicans away.
 
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