Gallup: Paul +1

[Havax]

Santorum 33% (-1)
Romney 27% (even)
Gingirch 16% (+1)
Paul 11% (+1)

Rolling average..

 

[RPit]

Hoped for a bigger gain. Need electability ads IMO.

 

[opinionatedfool]

Gallup: Paul +1, Grinch +1, Santy -1, and Romney flat

Starting to surge

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

 

[1836]

Santorum 33% (-1)
Romney 27% (even)
Gingirch 16% (+1)
Paul 11% (+1)

Rolling average..

5-day rolling average, and so even one point means the debate had an effect! I'm sure we will see more of this in days to come...

 

[BUSHLIED]

margin of error, standard variance...the field remains the same. It's hard to see the national polls and then the Obama v. Paul match ups. Paul does well against Obama, yet he is only 11% nationally? I wonder if this is just among GOP voters. If so, then that makes sense. Any gain by Paul more than 3 points would be significant in my opinion.

While Ron may be getting 1 point over 5 days with Gallup, there are no more steady increases. Ron is up and then down, up and then down. That is what leaves me to conclude it is simply variance here.

 

[RPES1]

You could say the same thing about Gingrich...

 

[opinionatedfool]

There is margin of error to be concerned about. If he is up the next couple days, its a surge.

 

[danny987]

lets do some math....

a 5 day rolling average of 10%. So to keep things simple we'll just say he got 10% each day. In order for his average to go up 1% the most recent day added had to be 15%.

 

[opinionatedfool]

Technically, to get a one point bump it would take a 5% increase on the last day of a five day rolling average. All else being equal of course.

 

[opinionatedfool]

lets do some math....

a 5 day rolling average of 10%. So to keep things simple we'll just say he got 10% each day. In order for his average to go up 1% the most recent day added had to be 15%.

Has anyone been checking what he's had each day?

 

[69360]

Has anyone been checking what he's had each day?

It's been hanging around 10-11 for the last week

 

[opinionatedfool]

You could say the same thing about Gingrich...

That's not a bad thing in my opinion. We need them all to stay in to get a brokered convention.

 

[Havax]

We were as high as 15 before the Maine loss and Santorum surge. Hopefully Santorum starts to fall, Gingrich folds after Super Tuesday, and we regain a chunk of that anti-Romney vote.

 

[Maximus]

I really don't see how someone could leave and come back to Gingrich three different times.

 

[Antwan15]

RON PAUL IS SUUUUUUUUUUUUUURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Havax]

I really don't see how someone could leave and come back to Gingrich three different times.

Not sure if you intended it, but that's brilliant!

 

[sailingaway]

We were as high as 15 before the Maine loss and Santorum surge. Hopefully Santorum starts to fall, Gingrich folds after Super Tuesday, and we regain a chunk of that anti-Romney vote.

the problem right now is that new media meme about Ron teaming with Romney. They know it is having effect so they are now starting the media cycle all over, with compilations of articles they wrote in the first cycle. Nothing new, just excerpts as a 'this story won't go away' headline. Obviously, it 'won't go away' because they keep recirculating it, as their new way to turn conservatives off of Ron.

 

[Ekrub]

Not sure if you intended it, but that's brilliant!

Lmao nice catch, if gingrich does surge again that will be a joke they use on late night for sure

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

Gingrich attracts the lady voters.

 

[Brett85]

Statistical noise. It he had jumped two or three points, it would actually mean something.