Gallup: Paul +1

[SCOTUSman]

If he goes up by two points tomorrow or something, then there may be a post debate bump. One point after one day is nothing but statistical noise at this point. He was at 11 two days ago.

 

[Liberty74]

Nothing to see here.

 

[BuddyRey]

We're polling behind Gingrich AND Santorum?!?!

WTF?!?!?! Is this whole country frigging BRAIN-DEAD?!?!

I feel like I'm taking CRAZY PILLS!

 

[Tudo]

Santorum 33% (-1)
Romney 27% (even)
Gingirch 16% (+1)
Paul 11% (+1)

Rolling average..

Sure, that's believable. After all look at all the support those lowlife's get . Their supporters are everywhere and smart too. So many of them really have integrity and support the Constitution.

Grrrrr

 

[PolicyReader]

Santorum 33% (-1)
Romney 27% (even)
Gingirch 16% (+1)
Paul 11% (+1)

Rolling average..

5-day rolling average, and so even one point means the debate had an effect! I'm sure we will see more of this in days to come...

margin of error, standard variance...the field remains the same. It's hard to see the national polls and then the Obama v. Paul match ups. Paul does well against Obama, yet he is only 11% nationally? I wonder if this is just among GOP voters. If so, then that makes sense. Any gain by Paul more than 3 points would be significant in my opinion.

While Ron may be getting 1 point over 5 days with Gallup, there are no more steady increases. Ron is up and then down, up and then down. That is what leaves me to conclude it is simply variance here.

Many (not all AFAIK) of the national Polls are among 'likely Republican voters' meaning that Indy voters, new voters, and voters who haven't been politically active for awhile, are all excluded from the sample by methodology. The Polls of Indy voters I've seen Paul tends to lead and the "vs Obama" polls usually contain a sample that's more of a cross section of the electorate.
In short the GOP Nomination is more of an uphill battle for Paul than the General Election (ironic isn't it?)

Getting the word out about how very electable Paul is in the general and how very unelectable Willard is would be a good move IMO
I hope the PCC gets on that, but we in the grassroots don't have to wait, we can start now

Going to be looking at the rolling average for the next couple of days, if it stays up (let alone increases) it's quite the positive sign moving into super tuesday

 

[ironj221]

The first day after the debate won't indicate much. It typically takes a few days to really see any movement as word gets around.

 

[seawolf]

Ron's week long next Campaign Swing thru Oklahoma, Michigan, Virginia and Washington should help raise the numbers and further energize us, the RP Grassroots.

I think Ron is on fire right now, he just needs to keep Campaigning hard and spreading his message to the People, ie Voters!!!

 

[SCOTUSman]

Today's Gallup:

Santorum 31 (-2)
Romney 30 (+3)
Gingrich 16 (Even)
Paul 11 (Even)

Looks like Romney is getting the post-debate bump and Santorum is getting the stumble.
The two days after the debate, Santorum is down 3, Romney up 3, Gingrich up 1, and Paul up 1.

 

[ironj221]

I feel like Ron Paul could blow the debate out of the water big time and still not get a huge bump because the media will always talk about something else. I'm guessing that the main reason these bumps and declines occur is because the media spends the next few days talking about how one candidate blew the debate. Of course, they never mention Ron Paul so only the people who watched it will know how he did.

The day after the debate, 95% of the media was "Santorum has bad debate, Romney does well" and nothing about Paul even though he did the best.