Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

[enhanced_deficit]

Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

Dems Losing Lead on RINOs

Fixed it.


That is encouraging.. especially fior a future 3rd party that is not puppet of same money baggers in this theatre of the puppets with different costumes but same masters.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Dems Losing Lead on RINOs

Fixed it.

The GOP is currently a mixed bag.

That is encouraging.. especially fior a future 3rd party that is not puppet of same money baggers in this theatre of the puppets with different costumes but same masters.

This is actually true, if the Demoncrats implode there will be a chance to create a new party to the right of the GOP with libertarian leanings.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

This is going to be funny.

...to watch the red tribe get slaughtered by the blue tribe.

It's like a vacation to Papua New Guinea.

 

[Swordsmyth]

This is going to be funny.

...to watch the red tribe get slaughtered by the blue tribe.

It's like a vacation to Papua New Guinea.

You've got it backwards............as usual.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

You've got it backwards............as usual.

I know that you have an interest in the outcome.

I was going to comment on that, but it doesn't matter.

 

[Swordsmyth]

I know that you have an interest in the outcome.

I was going to comment on that, but it doesn't matter.

Everyone has an interest in the outcome, the question is why you want the psychos to win.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Everyone has an interest in the outcome, the question is why you want the psychos to win.

They'll be winning either way.

 

[Swordsmyth]

They'll be winning either way.

Moral/sanity equivalence is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Moral/sanity equivalence is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

I'm not rooting for the scoundrels..

 

[Swordsmyth]

I'm not rooting for the scoundrels..

No, you the scoundrel are rooting for the psychos.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

No, you the scoundrel are rooting for the psychos.

Ah, I see.

 

[Schifference]

Is it common practice for former presidents to campaign vigorously against current administration? Obama and Biden seem to be hard at it. I don't ever remember previous presidents campaigning against administration. I thought it was practice to leave office and not interfere with what new administration did. Say what you want about George junior but I don't think he went around dissing Obama or the democrats when out of office.

 

[Schifference]

I would interpret Obama campaigning as a sign that the democrats are very scared and weak. If this were a football game the score would be tied with 1 minute remaining not one minute remaining and one team with a 40 point lead.

 

[Schifference]

Is Soros paying Obama? I am confident he is not doing this for free or at a loss for the cause.

 

[AuH20]

I doubt they listen to him. He knows.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana may have given his GOP opponent Mike Braun the rope to hang him with by voting "No" on Justice Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court. As of now, Braun is four points ahead of Donnelly, putting him on track to unseat him in the Senate should the trend continue.
According to the Washington Examiner, internal campaign polling from Mike Braun shows that he is leading his Democratic opponent by a narrow margin.
"The survey of 800 likely voters, conducted Oct. 14-17, showed Braun with a 44-40 percent advantage over Donnelly, who voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation after a nasty partisan battle that saw his nomination rocked by uncorroborated allegations of sexual misconduct," reports the outlet.

Braun's top strategists, Jon Kohan and Josh Kelley, said Donnelly's fall coincided with the Kavanaugh vote, which they claim was "political suicide" in a red Hoosier state. "Since Senator Donnelly committed the equivalent of political suicide by voting against Justice Kavanaugh a little more than two weeks ago, the bottom has fallen out of his campaign," they said in a statement.

More at: https://www.dailywire.com/news/37440/kavanaugh-effect-gop-candidate-mike-braun-leads-paul-bois

 

[Swordsmyth]

But while the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll out today gives Democrats a nine-point advantage nationwide in voting for the House, it tells a different story in the battleground seats that will determine control:

The Democratic advantage has vanished in House districts that matter most. In districts rated as most competitive, the parties are dead even on which one should control Congress. In last month’s poll, Dems led by 13 points among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters.
​

In other words, Republicans have a real chance to beat the odds and hold their losses below the 23 seats that would transfer House control.

More at: https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/10/midterm-elections-democrat-blue-wave-predictions/

 

[Swordsmyth]

And while poll suggest that Republicans are closing the gap with Democrats, increasing the likelihood that they retain control of the House and the Senate following the Nov. 6 midterm, the Dems are worried that signs of interest among Latino voters won't translate to the voting booth. According to Bloomberg, one survey released Sunday found 71% of Latinos registered high interest in the midterms, a jump from the 49% of Latinos who said that in mid-September. Among voters under 35, the poll said 51% expressed high interest, which is lower than the 65% average for all registered voters.
This is hugely problematic for Democratic strategists, because there are 31 GOP-controlled districts where Hispanics make up one-quarter of the population or more.

"It’s just a really, really big question about who’s going to turn out to vote," Lake said. "We could lose Senate seats over it. We could lose - the margin in the House could be greatly reduced. There are a good 15 seats where the millennial and Latino vote make a huge difference, could be the margin of victory."
​

In the past, any interest ahead of the vote expressed by young voters and minorities didn’t translate at the ballot box, as both demographics largely sat out the midterms in 2014, 2010 and 2006. Historically, the trend in non-presidential elections is that voters are older, white and married - demographics that often benefit Republicans.
In 2014, Hispanics comprised 25.1% of eligible voters but just 6.8% of the electorate. In 2010, they accounted for 21.3% of eligible voters and 6.6% of the electorate. In 2006, a strong year for Democrats, they were 17.3% of eligible voters and just 5.6 percent of the electorate.
One strategist perfectly summed up the contradiction in the data: while young voters are "very, very fired up, but the question is: Are they fired up for the next protest or for the next election?"


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...igh-dems-fear-low-millennial-hispanic-turnout

 

[eleganz]

Ah, if so, I missed that.

In any event, I'm not really interested in debating these reasons-to-ignore-the-polls theories.

Basing an assumption on the RCP average is wrong and is as much a theory as it is to say that that the polls should be ignored. So why does one theory carry weight and the other doesn't?

The last year's worth of polls have been assuming dem surge and now there is no dem surge so all of those polls are irrelevant. The only ones that are relevant are those conducted post-Kavanaugh and there have been very little conducted post-Kavanaugh as house races are expensive to poll.

But yes the only way to know is to wait it out.

 

[Swordsmyth]

As with many states, Nevada has unique election laws. It has early voting, but on the first weekend only the two population centers of Las Vegas (Clark County) and Reno (Washoe) are open. The “red rurals” are all closed. A false picture thus unfolds after the first two days. However, there was still room for concern at first: Democrats were doing better in Washoe County than they have historically.
What a difference a few days makes. Once the red rurals opened, Republican early votes flooded in and at the same time Clark began to see a dropoff. In fact, the shift has been so stunning that Nevada Democrat analyst John Ralston of the “Ralston Report” went from all but popping the champagne on Sunday to now warning that Democrats will need a “Clark firewall” to prevent a total disaster.


There won’t be a firewall. My confidante and analyst on Nevada, “The Dentist,” has run the numbers and they are shocking. Keep in mind Trump only lost the state by 27,000 votes, and that Republicans have gained 29,000 net new registrations in Nevada since 2016.

What the Dentist found was the the rate of return for the Democrats has crashed, literally last night plummeting from a dropoff of 73% from the 2016 totals to 79%. Put another way, right now the Democrats are projected to get only 21% of their 2016 totals. In terms of numbers of votes, the Dentist calculates that Jackie Rosen, the Democrat senate candidate, will be a whopping 35,000 votes short of winning! Dean Heller would win more comfortably than anyone imagined if these numbers hold up. Adam Laxalt would likewise win the governorship, and it would mean both NV3 and NV4 congressional districts would be once again seriously vulnerable.
But let’s jump from Nevada’s silver mines to the Iron Range of Minnesota where similar developments are unfolding: it now appears that Cong. Keith Ellison is crashing so hard he may take down the entire Minnesota establishment with him. Right now my sources in Minnesota are confident that Ellison will lose the Attorney General race, and by more than 5 points. But the news gets better for Republicans: all state candidates are including Ellison in their ads, and it is having a serious impact. Not only is Karin Housley now well within the margin of error, but suddenly Jim Newberger is just outside the MOE in his race with Amy Klobuchar—a seat until last week considered entirely safe! The governor’s race is now very close. More!? Word is that all the red districts are turning out at 2016 levels and above, and that virtually every candidate except Erik Paulsen now has the wind at his or her back. Paulsen, of course, was a neverTrumper who is paying for it, as all neverTrumpers nationally are.
It’s too bad, because there is an opportunity for the old Vikings’ Sweep in Minnesota. Now Paulsen may be on the bench.
These “canaries” suggest, for the first time, that the massive early and absentee advantages the Republicans are piling up may translate into the House races and seriously open up the possibility of the Republicans actually gaining a seat or two in the House.

More at: https://bigleaguepolitics.com/data-good-news-in-nevada-and-minnesota-point-to-hope-for-republicans/