Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

[Swordsmyth]

Rep. Barbara Comstock (R., Va.) is tied with her Democratic opponent, according to new polling exclusively obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.
A TargetPoint consulting memorandum shared with the Free Beacon found Comstock and Jennifer Wexton in a dead heat, with each candidate pulling in 47 percent. The poll shows a much more competitive race in a district categorized as leaning Democratic. Public polls from the New York Times and the Washington Post show Comstock trailing anywhere between 7 and 12 points.
The memo also reveals Rep. Mimi Walters is pulling away from her Democratic opponent Katie Porter in California's 45th district, which is currently rated a toss up. Walters has an 8-point lead, according to the memo.
TargetPoint surveyed likely voters in eight districts, finding Republicans with leads in five districts and tied in one. The survey, which was conducted in the field from Oct. 14-16, was commissioned by a variety of TargetPoint consulting clients who did not wish to be disclosed.
Other districts surveyed saw Republicans pulling away, including Rep. Elise Stefanik, who leads Tedra Cobb 50 to 40 percent in New York's 21st district.
In Ohio's 16th district, Republican Anthony Gonzales has opened up a 9-point lead over Susan Moran Palmer, at 48 to 39 percent. Dan Crenshaw also has a 9-point lead over Democrat Todd Litton in Texas's Second Congressional District, leading 49 to 40 percent.
Denver Riggleman (R.) leads by 5 points over Leslie Cockburn (D.) in Virginia's fifth district, another race that has been labeled a toss up.
Republicans trailed in two races, though by slim margins. The "Clinton-leaning" Pennsylvania first district has Republican Brian Fitzpatrick within 4 percentage points of Scott Wallace, who recently dropped an F-bomb during a debate in a synagogue. Wallace is up 49 to 45 percent.
"Independents are still in play here for persuasion—a group where Fitzpatrick trails by 6," according to the memo. "Fitzpatrick is trailing among those who are extremely likely to vote but leads with voters who say they have already cast their ballot 54 percent—46 percent."
Colorado's sixth district, which is rated as leaning Democratic, is also tightening. Republican Mike Coffman trails Democrat Jason Crow by 5 points. However, Coffman is winning early voters by a margin of 54 to 46 percent.

More at: https://freebeacon.com/politics/comstock-tied-new-poll/

 

[Swordsmyth]

One of Sen. Claire McCaskill’s (D., Mo.) final ads of the 2018 campaign sets her apart from "those crazy Democrats" in her party.
The radio ad has been running over the past week in Missouri and features two middle-aged men having a conversation about the hotly contested Missouri Senate race, CNN reports. McCaskill’s Republican challenger Josh Hawley has targeted her for her liberal positions, but the ad presents her as a centrist who bucks her party.
"Claire's not one of those crazy Democrats. She works right in the middle and finds compromise," one man says.


The ad’s talk of "crazy Democrats" has already rankled fellow Democrats who McCaskill needs to win in November.
Missouri State Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal (D.) told CNN the "crazy Democrats" could refer to the party base in urban areas, including African Americans.
"[McCaskill] is calling her base in the urban areas crazy Democrats," Chappelle-Nadal said, "and she's relying on those so-called crazy Democrats to make sure she wins."

More at: https://freebeacon.com/politics/new-mccaskill-ad-claires-not-one-crazy-democrats/

 

[Swordsmyth]

Republican Senate candidate Patrick Morrisey is up two points over Democratic incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), according to a new poll.
The Washington Examiner reports:

A new poll shows Republican challenger Patrick Morrisey inching ahead of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia’s pivotal Senate race.
The poll, commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, shows Morrisey, the state attorney general, leading Manchin 44 percent to 42 percent. Libertarian Rusty Hollen takes 3 percent, and 12 percent are undecided.
Take Hollen out of the equation, and Morrisey leads Manchin 47 percent to 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
​

Morrisey said Monday during a campaign rally with Donald Trump, Jr. he was within the margin of error in his race to upset the Democratic incumbent Manchin.
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted the poll on behalf of the NRSC. Six hundred likely voters were surveyed between Oct. 16 and Oct. 18.
Morrisey takes the lead in a poll that oversampled Democrats and women. Of those polled, 44 percent identified as Democrat, 38 percent as Republican, and 16 percent independent. Fifty-three percent of respondents were women.

More at: https://freebeacon.com/national-security/poll-morrisey-two-manchin/

 

[dannno]

Dana Rohrabacher is a Republican Rep from the wealthy coastal enclave of Newport Beach, CA and has been for decades. He usually wins 60/40 or better.

He is one of the biggest proponents of medical cannabis in the House.

He has also gotten caught up in the Russiaphobia nonsense, and polls from a couple months ago showed he was trailing his opponent by a few points.

A new poll came out a few days ago showing him a couple of points up (even with the fake Dem surge)

[h=1]Rohrabacher sees small boost in poll of tight California House race[/h]
[h=2]Immigration issue benefits staunch Trump backer, survey finds[/h]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...oll-of-tight-california-house-race-2018-10-23

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Basing an assumption on the RCP average is wrong and is as much a theory as it is to say that that the polls should be ignored. So why does one theory carry weight and the other doesn't?

The last year's worth of polls have been assuming dem surge and now there is no dem surge so all of those polls are irrelevant. The only ones that are relevant are those conducted post-Kavanaugh and there have been very little conducted post-Kavanaugh as house races are expensive to poll.

But yes the only way to know is to wait it out.

There have been plenty of polls post-Kavanaugh.

There are polls every couple days.

They say the same thing as the polls pre-Kavanaugh (i.e. massive Dem wave).

But, on the other hand, all polls are fake, so you should probably ignore them.

Put all your money on the GOP gaining House seats.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Republican Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley took a commanding lead over Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill as a new poll showed the race is finally outside of the margin of error.
Hawley is ahead of the Democratic incumbent by 7 points, according to an internal poll from the GOP campaign. Accordingly, 49 percent of likely voters prefer Hawley while 42 percent prefer McCaskill, the additional 9 points are spread evenly between undecided voters and third-party candidates.

More at: https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/24/josh-hawley-claire-mccaskill-senate-race/

 

[Swordsmyth]

Vice President Mike Pence announced his plans to return to Michigan to campaign for Republican Senate candidate John James the same day a poll in Michigan was released, which shows James within a single-digit margin against Democratic incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow, cutting her lead in more than half.
The EPIC-MRA poll released Thursday showed James, who was at one point down by 20 points in multiple polls, is now only behind by 7 points, just less than two weeks before the Nov. 6 midterm elections. This comes as James has received a list of big name endorsements, such as from President Donald Trump, Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr., national security adviser John Bolton, Florida GOP Sen. Marco Rubio and many others.
“As we surge in polls against 43-year politician Sen. Stabenow, we welcome Vice President Pence to rally with our co-pilots in Grand Rapids,” James said to The Daily Caller News Foundation after the news. “The Vice President knows first-hand that when momentum starts in Michigan it does not stop. The people of our state don’t want free stuff, they want a fair shot and as they get to know me they trust I will always have their back.”
Pence tweeted out the new polling numbers hours after it was released, saying he will be at the Kent GOP Lincoln Day GOTV rally on Monday night to campaign with James.

More at: https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/25/mike-pence-john-james-michigan/

 

[Swordsmyth]

Famed election prognosticator Nate Silver puts the odds of the Democrats taking over the House of Representatives at 84.6%.
Wait, you ask if this is the same Nate Silver who puts the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the White House at 71.4%?
Yes, yes it is.
So, one place you can not take that prediction is the bank.
Democrats have been solidly in the lead in generic polls that measure which party, Democrat or Republican, people say they're going to vote for on November 6. But like Silver, those polls are often wrong. And the double-digit margin has suddenly closed as Election Day nears, with Democrats holding just a 3 or 4 point lead with less than two weeks to go.

The Associated Press, as liberal a news outlet as you'll find out there, is now getting worried.
"In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all," the AP writes.

Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats’ narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats.
“It’s always been an inside straight, and it still is,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said of Democrats’ outlook in the Senate, where they need to pick up two seats while holding on to several others in Republican-leaning states to seize the majority. “If it had been a different year, with a different map, we might have had a terrific sweep. That would be a long shot.”
​

Top pollsters and prognosticators cite the contentious confirmation hearing for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, in which Democrats sunk into the muck with dirty tricks and scurrilous accusations that were never proved. Republicans who may have been content to sit out the congressional elections in a midterm year were suddenly pumped to vote, and the enthusiasm is changing the outlook daily.
“Republican enthusiasm doesn’t quite equal the white-hot enthusiasm of Democratic voters, but the Kavanaugh hearings got it pretty close,” Republican consultant Whit Ayres told the AP.
Democrats across the country — led by House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Sen. Chuck Schumer — are vowing to block Trump’s agenda and issues subpoenas to investigate alleged scandals if they take the House. Some, like Rep. Maxine Waters, pledge to push to impeach the president as others say they'll raise taxes and eliminate Trump's first-term cuts.
Still, Ayres expects the GOP to hold the Senate — maybe even pick up a seat or two to its current 51-49 edge.

He also attributes the party’s strong position on an unusual Senate map. Democrats are defending 26 seats of the 35 seats in play, including 10 in states that Trump carried in 2016. Ayres calls it “maybe the most Republican-leaning map of our lifetimes.”
​

In the House, Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take control, but even that is up in the air now, despite a clear advantage on paper.
Even the hyper-liberal New York Times is starting to get nervous.

While Democrats remain favored to pick up House seats in the Nov. 6 midterms, which historically produce losses for a president’s party, many of the 70 most competitive House races are now exceptionally close. Polls show a majority of registered voters lean Democratic, and Mr. Trump’s favorability ratings dragged along the low 40s before rising in recent weeks. Democratic turnout could continue to break records — yet it could also be concentrated in predictable Democratic strongholds rather than crucial swing districts.
Lost in all the talk about a Democratic blue wave is a set of sober reality checks — from the quantifiable to the emotional — that may help Republicans reduce their losses, and possibly even retain their 23-seat majority.
In many neighborhoods with key House races, daily life is pretty good. Unemployment is at a five-decade low. Confidence is spilling over among consumers and businesses. The economy is on track to grow at its fastest pace in years.
​

What's more, President Trump's approval rating is at its highest point ever, even topping former president Barack Obama's rating at this point in his first term.


More at: https://www.dailywire.com/news/37530/senate-slipping-away-house-now-air-republican-joseph-curl

 

[devil21]

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Actually, excluding Trump/Hillary which pretty much every polling outlet got wrong, Nate Silver has an *excellent* prediction record. Wonderful record. One of the best, believe me. He's a great guy.

 

[CCTelander]

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Actually, excluding Trump/Hillary which pretty much every polling outlet got wrong, Nate Silver has an *excellent* prediction record. Wonderful record. One of the best, believe me. He's a great guy.

LOL! I'd +rep you if I could.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Rep. John Carter, R-Texas, is in the midst of his first competitive race since entering Congress in 2002, and it’s looking more and more like he will hold on to his seat.
His challenger, Democrat MJ Hegar, became a fundraising phenomenon on the strength of a viral video about her life and military experience that has been viewed over 2.9 million times. Despite her spending advantage, however, Hegar hasn’t been able to close the widening gap in the reliably Republican 31st District, which stretches from Temple to Austin’s northern suburbs. A Siena College/New York Times poll released on Oct. 5 put Carter ahead of Hegar by 51 percent to 35 percent.

More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/democratic-phenom-fails-gain-traction-texas-house-race-204358890.html

 

[eleganz]

A lot of polling outlets over estimated the "surge" even though millennials and hispanic voters (the base) are reliably unreliable voters. That is really what turned so many seats into toss ups.

Honestly, the GOP would be fine if all of those GOP congressmen did not retire out of fear that they'd lose the house.

 

[Swordsmyth]

A lot of polling outlets over estimated the "surge" even though millennials and hispanic voters (the base) are reliably unreliable voters. That is really what turned so many seats into toss ups.

Honestly, the GOP would be fine if all of those GOP congressmen did not retire out of fear that they'd lose the house.

I think they retired to try and lose the house.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Ron DeSantis has been trailing Democrat Andrew Gillum in virtually every poll since the summer. But a survey conducted for Gray Television by Strategic Research Associates showed DeSantis ahead by 3 points, 48-45 percent. This is within the 3.46 point margin of error – but comes as another state poll puts Gillum ahead by just 1 point, reflecting, at the least, a horse race.On the Senate side, recent polls also have shown the race tightening between outgoing Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, after the incumbent led in a spree of earlier surveys.


Meanwhile, another race once seen as a lock for Democrats may be growing more competitive. Recent polls show New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez' lead over Republican Bob Hugin narrowing, as national Democratic groups scramble to pump money into the contest and keep the seat blue.

Cook Political Report, reflecting how unexpectedly competitive the contest has become, announced Friday it is moving the race from "lean Democratic" to "toss-up."

More at: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/st...er-of-hope-in-florida-contests-as-nj-heats-up

 

[Working Poor]

The drama is too much for me.

 

[timosman]

https://twitter.com/onewalleee/status/1052922083230007297

 

[Cleaner44]

There have been plenty of polls post-Kavanaugh.

There are polls every couple days.

They say the same thing as the polls pre-Kavanaugh (i.e. massive Dem wave).

But, on the other hand, all polls are fake, so you should probably ignore them.

Put all your money on the GOP gaining House seats.

This reminds me of that time you completely missed the boat on Trump beating Hillary. Remember that? Good times!

 

[Swordsmyth]

Just this week, a poll came out—I won’t mention the polling company—that had U.S. Senator Bill Nelson (D) ahead in his Florida senate race against Governor Rick Scott by (hang on) . . . 17 points.
Now, even if you think (and I don’t) that Nelson is ahead, this is one of those whoppers that stands up there with Hillary Clinton winning the Michigan Primary in 2016 (when Bernie Sanders drubbed her by double digits) or every single one of the pollsters getting Wisconsin wrong. The average error was six points. Some were off by as many as nine points to achieve that stunning error. Only two pollsters, Trafalgar and People’s Pundit Daily, had Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania or Michigan. Every single “major” pollster had him losing both.
Now comes Drudge with a scare headline about a Florida “wipeout!” Well, he’s right in part. There will be a wipeout, but not of the Republicans.
To review: Florida’s voting pattern in the past has always been that Republicans dominate absentee mail-in voting (Trump had a 114,000 lead here). Then “walk-in early voting” begins and Democrats rapidly take the lead, erasing the entire absentee advantage by election day. Then, on election day, Republicans storm back. (Both Romney and Trump won Florida election day, but Romney lost due to the massive early walk-in vote deficit).



So here comes Nelson with a 17 point lead, right? Ahhh . . . where, exactly will that come from? As of today, with four days of walk-in voting, the Florida Republicans have expanded their lead to over 61,000, putting them way ahead of 2016 levels in early walk-in voting. In fact, Republicans have won two days’ worth of walk-in early voting, despite the fact that in 2016 they didn’t win a single day.

Moreover, all the Florida voting right now is heavily biased toward Democrats, because the Panhandle—a deep red Republican stronghold—has been affected by the hurricane. It wasn’t until two days ago that early walk-in stations were opened in four counties there, and many other counties remain “down.” Analysis of absentee votes from this zone suggest the requests were down 65% from 2016.
Will these Floridians vote? My guess is, yes. They will “vote shift” to either later walk-ins, or later absentee returns (a new batch of absentee requests came into the SecState’s office two days ago, with Rs leading the requests by nine points), or on election day itself—-which Republicans usually win.
Only one poll has had Ron DeSantis winning, and only a few polls have had Rick Scott leading by a couple of points. That’s “polling.” Here is reality, at least as the numbers spell it out for me:
Gillum’s Island is gonna need both Ginger and Mary Ann to get voters to the polls to have a hope of winning. Nelson is finished.



You are seeing a vast chasm between “polling” and numbers now in virtually every state. The numbers point to GOP senate victories in Arizona, Nevada, Indiana, North Dakota, Florida, Tennessee,Texas, and tentatively to gains in Montana and Ohio. But the overall “wave” picture of these numbers suggests there will likely be at least one or more surprises on election night in New Jersey, Michigan, and Minnesota. The latter two are extremely difficult to track because they do not collect ballots by party ID as do Florida, Arizona, and Ohio.
Without doing another Big League Politics class on the perils of polling, let me remind you that pollsters appear to still be operating on 2012 party ID assumptions (which were already wrong in 2016 and which have shifted even further to Republicans everywhere but California and Northwest and Northeast coasts). Moreover, pollsters are still expecting a “youth vote” similar to that of Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign.
Except: in Florida so far, 18-29 year olds are voting at the rate of a mere 4.4%. This couldn’t elect Ed Sheeran as a judge on the Voice. Voters over 70 are crushing it. Whites in FLorida and North Carolina are up big, while the black vote in Florida languishes at 6%—well below the level Gillum needs, for example.
Furthermore, polls in Florida have not adjusted for a massive segment of red voters displaced by the hurricane; they have not adjusted for party registration shifts (which appear to be raising hell in Nevada with Democrat turnout). In short, one world—that of votes—appears to be painting a picture of a near-wave election for Republicans. Another, polls, paints a picture of selective Democrat victories. It’s up to you readers to decide which is more believable.


More at: https://bigleaguepolitics.com/the-logic-gap-between-polling-reality/

 

[timosman]

This reminds me of that time you completely missed the boat on Trump beating Hillary. Remember that? Good times!

This was one of those rare occasions where Nostradamus was wrong but like the polls he is right most of the time!

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Not much movement recently in the generic ballot: RCP average currently at D+7.6.

The Senate is looking better for the GOP, very little chance of losing it, will probably be flat or gain 1.