timosman
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Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls
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Swordsmyth
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Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly regularly channels President Donald Trump in the closing stretch of the midterm election by bashing socialists, ridiculing the "radical left" and calling for a border wall with Mexico.But there's a catch: He isn't a Republican.
Donnelly is among a handful of Senate Democrats in such red states as Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia who are desperately trying to distance themselves from an ascendant left wing of the party that is fueled by opposition to Trump.
Unlike other vulnerable Democrats , however, Donnelly isn't trying to diffuse the situation with tempered or cautious language. In fact, he has adopted the same incendiary rhetoric that Republicans, including his businessman opponent Mike Braun, are using to fire up the GOP base.
"If you drop somebody in Indiana who didn't know anything about the race, turn the television on and ask them to figure out who was the Democrat and who was the Republican — they couldn't do it," said Mike O'Brien, a Republican strategist who ran Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb's winning campaign. "He's way over the line from where any self-respecting Democrat would want him to be."
For Donnelly, it's a calculated risk that may very well pay off in a state Trump carried by nearly 20 points two years ago. But in the high-stakes contest with Braun, a seat Democrats know they must hold to retain any chance of winning control of the Senate, it also could backfire by alienating members of his base.
In recent ads, Donnelly has accused "socialists" of wanting "to turn health care over to the government" and derided a "radical left" that wants to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He also called out party activists who have jeered Republicans dining out at restaurants.
"The attacks and disrespect are so out of control," Donnelly said in an ad released Friday, where he is standing in the middle of a restaurant brawl. He goes on to call for Congress to "build a wall."
More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrat...-bid-resembles-trump-154354596--election.html
Donnelly is among a handful of Senate Democrats in such red states as Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia who are desperately trying to distance themselves from an ascendant left wing of the party that is fueled by opposition to Trump.
Unlike other vulnerable Democrats , however, Donnelly isn't trying to diffuse the situation with tempered or cautious language. In fact, he has adopted the same incendiary rhetoric that Republicans, including his businessman opponent Mike Braun, are using to fire up the GOP base.
"If you drop somebody in Indiana who didn't know anything about the race, turn the television on and ask them to figure out who was the Democrat and who was the Republican — they couldn't do it," said Mike O'Brien, a Republican strategist who ran Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb's winning campaign. "He's way over the line from where any self-respecting Democrat would want him to be."
For Donnelly, it's a calculated risk that may very well pay off in a state Trump carried by nearly 20 points two years ago. But in the high-stakes contest with Braun, a seat Democrats know they must hold to retain any chance of winning control of the Senate, it also could backfire by alienating members of his base.
In recent ads, Donnelly has accused "socialists" of wanting "to turn health care over to the government" and derided a "radical left" that wants to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He also called out party activists who have jeered Republicans dining out at restaurants.
"The attacks and disrespect are so out of control," Donnelly said in an ad released Friday, where he is standing in the middle of a restaurant brawl. He goes on to call for Congress to "build a wall."
More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrat...-bid-resembles-trump-154354596--election.html
Swordsmyth
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Rep. John Carter, R-Texas, is in the midst of his first competitive race since entering Congress in 2002, and it’s looking more and more like he will hold on to his seat.
His challenger, Democrat MJ Hegar, became a fundraising phenomenon on the strength of a viral video about her life and military experience that has been viewed over 2.9 million times. Despite her spending advantage, however, Hegar hasn’t been able to close the widening gap in the reliably Republican 31st District, which stretches from Temple to Austin’s northern suburbs. A Siena College/New York Times poll released on Oct. 5 put Carter ahead of Hegar by 51 percent to 35 percent.
More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/democratic-phenom-fails-gain-traction-texas-house-race-204358890.html
His challenger, Democrat MJ Hegar, became a fundraising phenomenon on the strength of a viral video about her life and military experience that has been viewed over 2.9 million times. Despite her spending advantage, however, Hegar hasn’t been able to close the widening gap in the reliably Republican 31st District, which stretches from Temple to Austin’s northern suburbs. A Siena College/New York Times poll released on Oct. 5 put Carter ahead of Hegar by 51 percent to 35 percent.
More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/democratic-phenom-fails-gain-traction-texas-house-race-204358890.html
Swordsmyth
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According to a Tuesday poll, a U.S. Senate seat in Indiana is set to flip from blue to red on Nov. 6.
“With just seven days until election day, a poll by Cygnal, a national polling and research firm, shows Republican Mike Braun with a 3-point advantage over incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly in Indiana’s US Senate race,” according to a press release by the polling firm.
Donnelly is a first term incumbent who was first elected in 2012.
“The Cygnal survey, conducted October 26 – 27, with 505 likely general election voters, shows Braun leading Donnelly 49% to 46%, with only 2% of voters undecided,” the press release said.
More at: https://bigleaguepolitics.com/new-poll-indiana-senate-seat-on-track-to-flip-red/
“With just seven days until election day, a poll by Cygnal, a national polling and research firm, shows Republican Mike Braun with a 3-point advantage over incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly in Indiana’s US Senate race,” according to a press release by the polling firm.
Donnelly is a first term incumbent who was first elected in 2012.
“The Cygnal survey, conducted October 26 – 27, with 505 likely general election voters, shows Braun leading Donnelly 49% to 46%, with only 2% of voters undecided,” the press release said.
More at: https://bigleaguepolitics.com/new-poll-indiana-senate-seat-on-track-to-flip-red/
Swordsmyth
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Would you bet the house that the Democrats will win the House? Some people who take bets for a living sure won’t — they’re wagering that the GOP will likely maintain a House of Representatives majority.
Those making this prediction are the odds-makers at online betting site MyBookie. This is significant. Professional pollsters don’t necessarily lose money if they’re shown to have been inaccurate; in fact, telling mainstream media what they want to hear may guarantee their “business.” Moreover, pollsters tend to be highly political.
Betting sites, however, absolutely will lose money if they get the odds wrong. Additionally, they take wagers on everything from golf to wrestling to who will play the next James Bond to what the first entity to send a human to Mars will be. So while everyone has opinions and even passions, bookies are not “political people,” per se, and as a group likely don’t have a horse in the midterm race.
Put simply and generally, pollsters get into polling because they’re interested in politics; odds-makers get into odds-making because they’re interested in gambling and money.
Treating the matter, American Thinker first reports on the polls and writes that they
continue to predict a blue wave, albeit one that might be too small for surfers. But polls depend on constructing a model of the expected turnout and then finding respondents to match the model: a certain percentage of Republicans, independents, and Democrats. If the pollsters fail to accurately predict which kinds of voters will be motivated in an off-year election, their polls are useless.
That hasn't stopped them from offering their own versions of the odds favoring the Democrats to take over the lower chamber. Nate Silver, who remains the media’s favorite polling guru despite offering odds well north of 90% favoring a Hillary Clinton win in 2016, puts the odds of a Democrat speaker of the House next year at nearly the same level of certainty: 85%.
But as USA Today writes of MyBookie’s prediction:
As of Sunday, the odds of the GOP keeping the House are at -140. That means you would need to bet $140 on the Republicans to win $100 if they stay in the majority. The Democrats are at +110, meaning a $100 bet would win you $110 if the Democrats manage to wrest control of the House.
The site also has the Republicans favored to hold the White House in the 2020 presidential election. The GOP is at -170 in that race, compared to +130 for the Democrats.
More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/30492-real-experts-say-gop-will-keep-house
Those making this prediction are the odds-makers at online betting site MyBookie. This is significant. Professional pollsters don’t necessarily lose money if they’re shown to have been inaccurate; in fact, telling mainstream media what they want to hear may guarantee their “business.” Moreover, pollsters tend to be highly political.
Betting sites, however, absolutely will lose money if they get the odds wrong. Additionally, they take wagers on everything from golf to wrestling to who will play the next James Bond to what the first entity to send a human to Mars will be. So while everyone has opinions and even passions, bookies are not “political people,” per se, and as a group likely don’t have a horse in the midterm race.
Put simply and generally, pollsters get into polling because they’re interested in politics; odds-makers get into odds-making because they’re interested in gambling and money.
Treating the matter, American Thinker first reports on the polls and writes that they
continue to predict a blue wave, albeit one that might be too small for surfers. But polls depend on constructing a model of the expected turnout and then finding respondents to match the model: a certain percentage of Republicans, independents, and Democrats. If the pollsters fail to accurately predict which kinds of voters will be motivated in an off-year election, their polls are useless.
That hasn't stopped them from offering their own versions of the odds favoring the Democrats to take over the lower chamber. Nate Silver, who remains the media’s favorite polling guru despite offering odds well north of 90% favoring a Hillary Clinton win in 2016, puts the odds of a Democrat speaker of the House next year at nearly the same level of certainty: 85%.
But as USA Today writes of MyBookie’s prediction:
As of Sunday, the odds of the GOP keeping the House are at -140. That means you would need to bet $140 on the Republicans to win $100 if they stay in the majority. The Democrats are at +110, meaning a $100 bet would win you $110 if the Democrats manage to wrest control of the House.
The site also has the Republicans favored to hold the White House in the 2020 presidential election. The GOP is at -170 in that race, compared to +130 for the Democrats.
More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/30492-real-experts-say-gop-will-keep-house
Swordsmyth
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A new poll conducted between October 24-25 shows Missouri state attorney general Josh Hawley widening his lead in his battle against Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill for her seat.
The poll, commissioned by nonpartisan news agency Missouri Scout and conducted by GOP polling group Remington Research, found Hawley with a four-point lead over McCaskill, 49%-45%, as The Weekly Standard reports. Remington Research President Titus Bond tweeted, “The Claire McCaskill campaign right now reminds me of every well-funded losing campaign I’ve worked on.”
More at: https://www.dailywire.com/news/37696/poll-hawley-widening-lead-over-mccaskill-missouri-hank-berrien
The poll, commissioned by nonpartisan news agency Missouri Scout and conducted by GOP polling group Remington Research, found Hawley with a four-point lead over McCaskill, 49%-45%, as The Weekly Standard reports. Remington Research President Titus Bond tweeted, “The Claire McCaskill campaign right now reminds me of every well-funded losing campaign I’ve worked on.”
More at: https://www.dailywire.com/news/37696/poll-hawley-widening-lead-over-mccaskill-missouri-hank-berrien
Swordsmyth
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The latest polls of the Senate and gubernatorial races in Florida indicate that both Republican governor Rick Scott and GOP congressman Ron DeSantis still have a chance to pull off a victory against their respective Democratic opponents.
Over the weekend, the New York Times and Siena released preliminary results from live polling in Florida, showing that Democratic senator Bill Nelson leads Scott by four points in the re-election battle, 48–44 percent. The same poll found that Democratic mayor of Tallahassee Andrew Gillum had 48 percent support compared with DeSantis’s 43.
But a second survey from Sunday, CBS News/YouGov, found that Scott and Nelson are neck and neck, tied at 46 percent support each. The same poll showed Gillum ahead of DeSantis by just one point in the gubernatorial contest, 47–46 percent.
Even more intriguing are the favorability ratings CBS/YouGov found for each candidate, based on voters’ assessments of the candidates’ experience up to this point. Despite his extensive negative press coverage — and Gillum’s increasingly outlandish attacks against him — DeSantis leads the pack with a net-positive rating of 13, with 45 percent positive and 32 percent negative.
Gillum, comparatively, has the lowest rating of the four candidates, with favorable/unfavorable of 42/37. In the Senate race, Scott edges out Nelson in terms of favorability, with a 47/39 positive to negative ratio compared with Nelson’s 43/36.
Meanwhile, two new polls out today show the Senate race narrowing again, with Election Day just a week away. A UNF survey shows Nelson ahead of Scott by one point, and another from USA Today/Suffolkshows the Democrat ahead by two. The UNF poll gave Gillum a six-point lead over DeSantis, but USA Today/Suffolkfound him ahead by just a one-point margin.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corn...review.com&utm_term=68938&utm_content=2305557
Over the weekend, the New York Times and Siena released preliminary results from live polling in Florida, showing that Democratic senator Bill Nelson leads Scott by four points in the re-election battle, 48–44 percent. The same poll found that Democratic mayor of Tallahassee Andrew Gillum had 48 percent support compared with DeSantis’s 43.
But a second survey from Sunday, CBS News/YouGov, found that Scott and Nelson are neck and neck, tied at 46 percent support each. The same poll showed Gillum ahead of DeSantis by just one point in the gubernatorial contest, 47–46 percent.
Even more intriguing are the favorability ratings CBS/YouGov found for each candidate, based on voters’ assessments of the candidates’ experience up to this point. Despite his extensive negative press coverage — and Gillum’s increasingly outlandish attacks against him — DeSantis leads the pack with a net-positive rating of 13, with 45 percent positive and 32 percent negative.
Gillum, comparatively, has the lowest rating of the four candidates, with favorable/unfavorable of 42/37. In the Senate race, Scott edges out Nelson in terms of favorability, with a 47/39 positive to negative ratio compared with Nelson’s 43/36.
Meanwhile, two new polls out today show the Senate race narrowing again, with Election Day just a week away. A UNF survey shows Nelson ahead of Scott by one point, and another from USA Today/Suffolkshows the Democrat ahead by two. The UNF poll gave Gillum a six-point lead over DeSantis, but USA Today/Suffolkfound him ahead by just a one-point margin.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corn...review.com&utm_term=68938&utm_content=2305557
dannno
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Swordsmyth
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Underdog Republican Senate candidate John James appears to be gaining momentum in Michigan, as the latest polls show the political newcomer cutting incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s once-comfortable lead in half.
James, an Iraq War veteran, is now trailing the incumbent by roughly 7 points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls.
The split is similar to the race in Texas, where Democrat Beto O’Rourke is trailing incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Like O’Rourke, James remains the underdog.
But unlike in Texas, the polls in Michigan reflect a steady tightening. Stabenow, D-Mich., for months had led by double digits. As of mid-October, Stabenow was 16 points ahead of James, according to an MRG poll.
But an EPIC-MRA poll from late October showed Stabenow with just a 7-point lead, an Emerson poll showed her up 9 points and a new Mitchell Research & Communications poll showed the incumbent leading by 6 points.
“John James is giving 43-year politician Debbie Stabenow the fight of her political life and there is zero question she’ll be running scared these final days,” Tori Sachs, James’ campaign manager, told Fox News in a statement last week.
More at: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/st...s-cuts-sen-stabenows-lead-in-half-in-michigan
James, an Iraq War veteran, is now trailing the incumbent by roughly 7 points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls.
The split is similar to the race in Texas, where Democrat Beto O’Rourke is trailing incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Like O’Rourke, James remains the underdog.
But unlike in Texas, the polls in Michigan reflect a steady tightening. Stabenow, D-Mich., for months had led by double digits. As of mid-October, Stabenow was 16 points ahead of James, according to an MRG poll.
But an EPIC-MRA poll from late October showed Stabenow with just a 7-point lead, an Emerson poll showed her up 9 points and a new Mitchell Research & Communications poll showed the incumbent leading by 6 points.
“John James is giving 43-year politician Debbie Stabenow the fight of her political life and there is zero question she’ll be running scared these final days,” Tori Sachs, James’ campaign manager, told Fox News in a statement last week.
More at: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/st...s-cuts-sen-stabenows-lead-in-half-in-michigan
WarmPotato
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Fingers crossed Republicans dominate!
aGameOfThrones
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Swordsmyth
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A Republican challenger in Arizona is surging against her Democrat incumbent opponent, and has the potential for an upset victory in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Wendy Rogers is polling neck and neck with Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Ariz.) in the state’s 1st Congressional District, and GOP turnout has been strong. Republicans are leading the early ballot race by more than 5800 in the district.
More at: https://bigleaguepolitics.com/arizo...dy-rogers-surging-against-democrat-incumbent/
Wendy Rogers is polling neck and neck with Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Ariz.) in the state’s 1st Congressional District, and GOP turnout has been strong. Republicans are leading the early ballot race by more than 5800 in the district.
More at: https://bigleaguepolitics.com/arizo...dy-rogers-surging-against-democrat-incumbent/
Zippyjuan
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Trump on Twitter today.
Keep in mind that Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House. The Democrats are not in power and not passing any laws. Republicans are. If things are going bad, who is it to blame again?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Keep in mind that Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House. The Democrats are not in power and not passing any laws. Republicans are. If things are going bad, who is it to blame again?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Swordsmyth
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They are preventing things that urgently need to be done, most of those are actually things they did that need to be undone too.
Swordsmyth
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Opinion polls are predicting a close race between the Democrats and Republicans, and a recent poll by YouGov of 1,296 US adults saw 47 percent in favour of the Democrats and 43 percent in favour of Republicans.
More at: https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...018-predictions-map-who-will-win-midterms-USA
More at: https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...018-predictions-map-who-will-win-midterms-USA
Swordsmyth
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[h=2]A new poll from OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (ABC15/OHPI) shows Republican Martha McSally steadily leading Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in the Arizona United States Senate race.[/h] McSally currently holds a seven point lead over Sinema, 52 percent to Sinema’s 45 percent. Two percent are still undecided and one percent support Green candidate Angela Green.
The poll, conducted via phone from October 22-23, also found Sinema to be unfavorable among 50 percent of voters, compared to McSally’s 44 percent.
More at: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...7-point-lead-over-democrat-sinema-in-arizona/
The poll, conducted via phone from October 22-23, also found Sinema to be unfavorable among 50 percent of voters, compared to McSally’s 44 percent.
More at: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...7-point-lead-over-democrat-sinema-in-arizona/
Swordsmyth
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More GOP voters associate with President Trump than they do with the Republican party itself, underscoring the degree to which Trump has taken over the GOP brand, according to a new poll.
The Harris Poll, conducted with Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies, found that 46 percent of Republican registered voters surveyed said they associate with Trump, compared to 25 percent who say they associate with GOP itself.
Eighteen percent said they associate with both, and 9 percent replied they associate with either.
The Democratic Party and GOP approval ratings, the poll found, are equal for the first time in over a year. The parties' approval is tied at 41 percent, after the GOP's approval rating has been trending upward since December.
More at: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/414221-more-voters-associate-with-trump-than-gop
The Harris Poll, conducted with Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies, found that 46 percent of Republican registered voters surveyed said they associate with Trump, compared to 25 percent who say they associate with GOP itself.
Eighteen percent said they associate with both, and 9 percent replied they associate with either.
The Democratic Party and GOP approval ratings, the poll found, are equal for the first time in over a year. The parties' approval is tied at 41 percent, after the GOP's approval rating has been trending upward since December.
More at: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/414221-more-voters-associate-with-trump-than-gop
Gee, that's surprising. It's not like the media puts Trump front-and-center 24/7/365 to create an identity bond between him and his base. And the opposition, too. No president in my lifetime has ever been given so much air time and collective mind space than Trump has. This surely will end well /s
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