Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

With less than three weeks to go before the midterm elections, there are signs a “blue wave” may not wash across Washington, in a move that could have big implications for U.S. stocks DJIA, +0.26% and other financial assets.
Recent analysis shows the possibility that Democrats could fall short of the seats required to take the majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans’ numbers are trending up in one snapshot of the generic ballot.

More at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...s-suggest-2018-10-18?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
 
It seemed like there was every indication Dean Heller was toast this year. He’s the only GOP senator up for re-election in a state that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in 2016. He aligned himself with Donald Trump, a figure reviled by many communities here, after once saying he “vehemently” opposed him. He voted to repeal Obamacare, a risky move that opened him up to blistering attacks over health care.Yet polls are showing Heller in a dead heat with his opponent, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), just weeks out from the midterm election. Democrats say they’re optimistic that a blue wave will help them oust Heller, a win they need in order to retake the Senate. But worrying signs about lagging Latino engagement across the country and Trump’s rising popularity in Nevada could hand them an unexpected setback in November.
“There’s a basic reality that Republicans tend to do better in midterms,” said Doug Heye, a former communications director at the Republican National Committee. “[Heller] has done everything right that he could in a difficult environment. ... This race is not going to be decided by thousands and thousands of votes, but by hundreds of votes.”


Democrats may be facing a big problem with Latino voters, who don’t seem to be as enthusiastic about voting as they were when then-candidate Trump drove minorities to the polls in 2016 with his anti-immigrant rhetoric.
In several majority-Latino districts across the country, for example, Democrats are currently underperforming Clinton’s numbers from two years ago. If these voters fail to show up on Election Day, it could seriously hamper Democratic chances of regaining control of Congress.
“Latinos have been asked to play defense over and over again and over again. Vote against this, vote against that. What we haven’t had in a very long time is something to vote for,” David Garcia, a Democratic candidate for governor in Arizona, said a recent MSNBC interview.
A similar trend may also be taking place in Nevada, a state whose population is made up of about 28 percent Latinos and growing.
Heller has shown surprising strength with Latino voters. A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows he has the support of 38 percent of Latino voters in Nevada ― a significant amount for a Republican. His campaign has directed outreach groups to engage Latino and Asian-American voters in Nevada, especially those who are in the business community, in hopes of siphoning away votes from Democrats.
“We are firmly committed to earning every vote, and that includes Hispanics and every other group in Nevada,” said Heller campaign spokesman Keith Shipper.
In another concerning sign for Democrats, the Cook Political Report recently downgraded an open House seat in the Las Vegas area that is 54 percent nonwhite from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.”


More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/nevada-senate-race-supposed-easier-004710460.html
 
Nate Silver segment on This Week w/George Stephanopoulos starts @25:00 in case you want to know the truth. :cool:

 
New poll out today, from FOX (the well known pro-Democrat propaganda outlet): D+7

That brings the average down slightly to D+7.1

Since you always quote the RCP average, last time dems swept the RCP average over-performed by 4 points. Dems will need +5.5 to win the house battle. If everything were held today and we go by the RCP model, you'd be wrong bud.

In these next two weeks anything can still happen and then its all about turnout, which the polling averages assumed a Dem surge and Republicans with low excitement. RCP average is bunk right now.
 
Fwiw, Jim Cramer (of CNBC) commented a few minutes ago that he's hearing rumors from allegedly high placed individuals that there's concern within the RNC that sentiment is shifting back toward Dems.

Why should anybody care what he says? He's CNBC's resident stock market "guru" and it's a widely accepted narrative that Trump's MAGA stock market boom will end if Dems take one of the chambers.
 
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Fwiw, Jim Cramer (of CNBC) commented a few minutes ago that he's hearing rumors from allegedly high placed individuals that there's concern within the RNC that sentiment is shifting back toward Dems.

Why should anybody care what he says? He's CNBC's resident stock market "guru" and it's a widely accepted narrative that Trump's MAGA stock market boom will end if Dems take one of the chambers.
I dont believe anything jim cramer says after that video where he was caught admitting he talks about stocks to enrich himself. To me hes no different than ED from the Ed Show editing tape.. fuck em both
 
I dont believe anything jim cramer says after that video where he was caught admitting he talks about stocks to enrich himself. To me hes no different than ED from the Ed Show editing tape.. fuck em both

I watch a lot of CNBC and while I overall agree with you that his credibility is low, the morning show right before market open is when he's surprisingly honest and is usually proven right about what he says on that show. It's his Mad Money show when he's full of shit and turns into an advertising and market shill.
 
The latest poll on the midterms is making Democrats nervous. Said anti-Trump MSNBC commentator Mika Brzezinski on Monday, “Democrats can still win the midterms but with time running out, the message and the momentum appears to be on Donald Trump’s side.”
She was referring to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll’s results which were released on Monday, which noted:
Hand in hand with Republicans’ increased election interest is a rise in Mr. Trump’s job-approval rating to 47%, the highest mark of his time in office, with 49% disapproving of his performance. That is an improvement from September, when 44% approved and 52% disapproved of his performance.
Democrats still lead on the question of which party should control Congress. Among poll respondents identified as likely voters, 50% prefer Democrats, while 41% prefer Republican control, about the same as in last month’s poll.
Among all registered voters, a broader group of respondents, Democrats’ advantage over the GOP is narrower — 48% to 41%.
As The New American reported on Monday, the issue in November isn’t healthcare and it isn’t the economy. It’s Donald Trump. His remarkable jump in the polls in just the last 30 days is what’s making Brzezinski nervous. She added:
We've been talking about the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which has some favorable signs for Democrats. But also plenty for Republicans to like. Fred Yang, the democratic pollster who works on the survey for NBC and the Journal, said, “What we all thought would be a blue wave is running into a rip tide of uncertainty that has been created with a surge of Republican intensity.”
That “surge of Republican intensity” — stoked by the Democrats’ outrageous handling of the confirmation hearings for Justice Brett Kavanaugh — is at the highest level ever recorded. As GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who assisted with the poll, said, “It’s a barnburner. There’s a switch that’s been flipped.… They [Republican voters] are engaging in the campaign and the process.”

For Brzezinski, the polls showed something even worse:
Throw the national polls out and go race by race, and what you see is a stark reality for the Democratic Party. Barring some dramatic change, control of the Senate is out of reach, and Republicans are fighting very hard to keep the speakership and control of the House and they just might.
Donald Trump is talking about trade, crime, immigration and judges. What are the Democratic issues that pack the same kind of inspiring, emotional punch? Democrats can still win these midterms, but with time running out the message and the momentum appears to be on Donald Trump's side. Democrats have two weeks to turn that around. Can they? For those who are growing increasingly concerned we're about to see a repeat of 2016, there is no time to waste.
It may already be too late. Wrote the Wall Street Journal’s Janet Hook: “Although Democrats are preferred in the national [generic] poll overall, their advantage has vanished in the House districts that matter most. In districts rated as the most competitive … the parties are dead even on the question of which one should control Congress. In last month’s poll, Democrats led by 13 points.”

More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/30406-is-democrat-blue-wave-fading
 
The Republican National Committee raised nearly three times as much money as the Democratic National Committee in September with $26.2 million in donations compared to the DNC's $9.7 million.
The strong September numbers contribute to a similarly dominant third quarter for the RNC, which raised $57 million in the quarter compared to the DNC's $27 million. In the current election cycle, the DNC has only raised $136 million compared to the RNC's $270 million in donations.

More at: https://freebeacon.com/politics/rnc-nearly-triples-dncs-fundraising-numbers-september/
 
[h=2]Republican businessman John Cox has surged in the race for California governor, trailing Democrat Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom by only 7.4% in the latest KFI-NBC poll, conducted by Thomas Partners Strategies.[/h] The poll, released last Wednesday and conducted Oct. 12-14 via landline telephones, shows Newsom with 50.7%, and Cox with 43.3% among likely voters, with a margin of error of about 3.5%. It is the latest poll to show Cox within single digits — perhaps closing a gap that other polls have shown near 20 points.
The poll might be considered an outlier, but shows voters evenly divided over Proposition 6, the ballot initiative to repeal the state legislature’s 2017 gas tax hike of 12 cents per gallon.
It is the second poll in California to show Cox within single digits of Newsom — though the Democrat is shown to have passed the crucial 50% mark, and the poll suggests Cox may struggle to overcome Democrats’ registration advantage.
The poll also notes: “Republicans have eclipsed Democrats in their levels of enthusiasm beyond the margin of error this week. Lastly week the enthusiasm was high on both sides but was tied within the margin.” Among Republicans, 79.0% said the election was “very important,” compared to just 73.7% for Democrats.

More at: https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-e...-california-on-wave-of-republican-enthusiasm/
 
The latest polling out of Arizona provides more indication that the race to become the state’s next U.S. senator is falling into GOP Rep. Martha McSally’s favor.
A New York Times/Siena College poll shows McSally beating Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema by two percentage points, 48 percent to 46 percent. The survey — conducted between Oct. 15 and 19 — reached out to 606 people across the state. It carries a margin of error of 4.2 percent, indicating the election is still a tossup.
While the race is still anyone’s game, the latest poll shows a change in direction for McSally. Over the summer, the Republican congresswoman and combat veteran was trailing Democrat Sinema by as much as double digits. However, the GOP nominee has since closed the gap, and is now leading in the Real Clear Politics average of recent surveys. In an ABC poll released Oct. 9, McSally lead by six percentage points.

More at: https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/21/martha-mcsally-sinema-senate-poll/
 
Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is holding on to the Minnesota Senate seat that she currently occupies, but a recent poll shows her lead over Republican challenger state Sen. Karin Housley has tightened to single digits.
The Star Tribune and Mason-Dixon poll released Monday shows that Housley is trailing the Democratic incumbent by six points, just outside of the 3.5 point margin of error. Smith is leading 47 to 41 percent. This is 10 points tighter than an NBC News-Marist poll conducted weeks earlier that had Smith at a commanding 16-point lead.

More at: https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/22/minnesota-senate-race-tina-smith/
 
Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is holding on to the Minnesota Senate seat that she currently occupies, but a recent poll shows her lead over Republican challenger state Sen. Karin Housley has tightened to single digits.
The Star Tribune and Mason-Dixon poll released Monday shows that Housley is trailing the Democratic incumbent by six points, just outside of the 3.5 point margin of error. Smith is leading 47 to 41 percent. This is 10 points tighter than an NBC News-Marist poll conducted weeks earlier that had Smith at a commanding 16-point lead.

More at: https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/22/minnesota-senate-race-tina-smith/

Does anybody really believe the polls moved that much?

I definitely think Republicans have been gaining momentum, but most of this is the same as what happened in 2016.. they had the polls rigged hard for the Democrats, but then as the election got closer they had to put the polls closer to the realm of reality to save face.
 
Does anybody really believe the polls moved that much?

I definitely think Republicans have been gaining momentum, but most of this is the same as what happened in 2016.. they had the polls rigged hard for the Democrats, but then as the election got closer they had to put the polls closer to the realm of reality to save face.
I don't think there was that much movement but there is movement our direction.

I don't think the vote zombies have been as fired up as they have claimed all along, you can't stay enthusiastic for 2 years and the Dems have tried to keep them whipped up constantly instead of letting them rest, I have said that they are going to cause burnout in their voter base and I think they have, I expect them to have obviously low turnout.
 
Since you always quote the RCP average, last time dems swept the RCP average over-performed by 4 points. Dems will need +5.5 to win the house battle. If everything were held today and we go by the RCP model, you'd be wrong bud.

In these next two weeks anything can still happen and then its all about turnout, which the polling averages assumed a Dem surge and Republicans with low excitement. RCP average is bunk right now.

Well, they're currently at +7.7, so I'm not sure what you're saying...
 
I think he is saying that you should subtract 4 points:

Ah, if so, I missed that.

In any event, I'm not really interested in debating these reasons-to-ignore-the-polls theories.

Let's wait two weeks and see what happens.

My money says the Dems take dozens of seats, and probably the majority in the House (GOP will keep the senate, maybe even gain a seat).
 
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