You guys are gonna hate me...trying to catch a falling knife

[Michael P]

Out of ZSL at $18.81 -- 10.6% --- didn't want to get greedy.

Cowlesy, you seem to have your finger on the pulse of all this madness. If you see what you would consider a nice juicy entry spot for a long position please don't be shy

 

[swissaustrian]

It's stupid to short a falling asset class (albeit a short term correction) to make some money?

hmmmm...

It´s even more stupid to not understand the simplicity of leveraged short term hedging ;-)

This is what you have do to when you´re a long term bull and a short term bear. It´s as simple as that. You only have to use a fraction of the value of your physical holdings due to the leverage on the short paper. This strategy serves brilliantly as it´s giving you additional long term performance and short term insurance: You sell your shorts with profits when the correction is over, you already have the physical. You did´nt waste any discounts/premiums AND taxes by shifting out and in of physical and you did´nt loose any money = you preserved your capital. And if we see a paper vs. physical spread again (like in 2008) then you have both trades right. Especially if (not when) the Comex really defaults.

 

[Seraphim]

I know all that - thank you. That was precisely my point. That guy was saying shorting silver was stupid. My point was that doing so in the short term under current conditions is not stupid at all.

It´s even more stupid to not understand the simplicity of leveraged short term hedging ;-)

This is what you have do to when you´re a long term bull and a short term bear. It´s as simple as that. You only have to use a fraction of the value of your physical holdings due to the leverage on the short paper. This strategy serves brilliantly as it´s giving you additional long term performance and short term insurance: You sell your shorts with profits when the correction is over, you already have the pysical. You did´nt waste any discounts/premiums AND taxes by shifting out and in of physical and you did´nt loose any money = you preserved your capital. And if we see a paper vs. physical spread again (like in 2008) then you have both trades right. Especially if (not when) the Comex really defaults.

 

[Jordan]

Last candlestick on the weekly doesn't look good. If you get another down bar next week, then you have a complete "evening doji star" which the technical traders will jump on like a bunch of loons.

 

[swissaustrian]

@ Seraphim, i did´nt want point out that you were stupid
I wanted to support your point... Sorry for not making this clear enough.
I understood ThyGivaOfRep wanted to call me stupid, so i tried to explain my strategy.

 

[Michael P]

50 day moving average = 38.67

100 day moving average = 34

(34~38.67) This is looking more and more like the sweet spot... maybe? I'm guessing closer to 38... wtfk, any guesses?

 

[Godisnowhere]

I would call this running in front of a fireball. It is nice warm and bright there as long as it does not catch up with you and make you toast.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

50 day moving average = 38.67

100 day moving average = 34

(34~38.67) This is looking more and more like the sweet spot... maybe? I'm guessing closer to 38... wtfk, any guesses?

Trying to take some guesses in the other thread...

$30/oz min in major correction, $20/oz min in crash scenario.

 

[swissaustrian]

I would call this running in front of a fireball. It is nice warm and bright there as long as it does not catch up with you and make you toast.

Sure, you´ve got to monitor risks very carefully.
The derivatives i use to short silver are liquid 24h a day. They are over the counter instruments, i trade them directly with my own bank. I constantly monitor stops on them. Right now the stops are in the profit zone. I would never do this with illiquid instruments.

By the way, CME is doing everything to "clean up" the paper market:
CME just raised margins for the 4th time in 8 trading-days:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-hikes-silver-margins-17-4th-hike-8-trading-days

 

[rodo1776]

Out of ZSL at $18.81 -- 10.6% --- didn't want to get greedy.

why would anyone hate you for being smart? Long physical but playing for a gain on paper.

More power to you dude. And smart enough to take profits.

 

[PeacePlan]

there were a lot of people and funds shorting silver and they will soon be buying as they cover. I am thinking we get 3 or 4 dollar up day soon.

 

[Seraphim]

This.

why would anyone hate you for being smart? Long physical but playing for a gain on paper.

More power to you dude. And smart enough to take profits.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

I just bought $980 physical, figuring we won't see the $30's again any time soon.

 

[Michael P]

Now that the Euphoria turned terror has subsided, it is a impressive after what happened with the flash crashes and margin hikes over the past 10 days that silver hasn't dropped even more...

 

[Seraphim]

The jig is up...PHYSICAL holders (MOST of them) know what's up and aren't going to be scared into selling their finite money. Not for abysmal paper.

It's the paper markets that are causing these wild fluctuations.

I've said it before. I FULLY expect a MASSIVE drop in paper spot price of gold and silver at some point with a HUGE jump in the price of physical.

There will be a decoupling. When? Don't know. It may be upon us already.

Now that the Euphoria turned terror has subsided, it is a impressive after what happened with the flash crashes and margin hikes over the past 10 days that silver hasn't dropped even more...

 

[cubical]

4 margin hikes in 1.5 weeks... Geez.

 

[Cowlesy]

Out of ZSL at $18.81 -- 10.6% --- didn't want to get greedy.

Bah, got out too early. I dont' see anything that looks like a trend reversal coming back.

I'm back in at $21.01 today.

 

[cubical]

Bah, got out too early. I dont' see anything that looks like a trend reversal coming back.

I'm back in at $21.01 today.

Keep the stops tight, there are a million shorts out there now. Even if we go back to $30, we might have a short squeeze that pushes us back to 42, before 30.

 

[Cowlesy]

Keep the stops tight, there are a million shorts out there now. Even if we go back to $30, we might have a short squeeze that pushes us back to 42, before 30.

Oh I agree --- it's a dangerous trade, but so far for the day, very profitable.

 

[cubical]

Oh I agree --- it's a dangerous trade, but so far for the day, very profitable.

good job! now donate to Ron Paul.