You guys are gonna hate me...trying to catch a falling knife
- Thread starter Cowlesy
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Original_Intent
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Heh heh you are supposed to BUY fear and SELL greed - you are confused! 
swissaustrian
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I shorted it yesterday at $ 45,5 with a 6:1 leverage. I did this in order to hedge my physical positions.
Now it turns out to be a very good trade.
I think there will be an opportunity to go long in 2-3 weeks. The next real bull market could start when qe3 will be announced.
I´m also following premiums on physical very closely. Maybe there will be a situation like 2008 soon, when physical and paper markets basicly decoupled. The backwardation is still there, so i suppose physical shorteges are too.
Now it turns out to be a very good trade.
I think there will be an opportunity to go long in 2-3 weeks. The next real bull market could start when qe3 will be announced.
I´m also following premiums on physical very closely. Maybe there will be a situation like 2008 soon, when physical and paper markets basicly decoupled. The backwardation is still there, so i suppose physical shorteges are too.
Nate-ForLiberty
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I personally believe that holding physical silver may very well turn out to be an incredible long term investment, because I believe that if/when the US dollar collapses, not only could there be hyper-inflation, but I think that there could also be an astronomical shortage of any kind of functional currency, aside from physical PM's, if the masses do end up rejecting something like the SDR.
With that said, I think that shorting silver during this current period of wild fluctuation, could very well turn out to be a wonderful bet, if you do manage to get your timing correct, which probably would not be too difficult I suppose.
With that said, I think that shorting silver during this current period of wild fluctuation, could very well turn out to be a wonderful bet, if you do manage to get your timing correct, which probably would not be too difficult I suppose.
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Yep, a lot of the more sophisticated buyers have recently hedged their bets on silver, but they aren't selling anything.
P
PeacePlan
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Shorted silver today
*let the righteous indignation of silver bulls commence*
You guys that are shorting got more balls than me. It looks like the logical thing to do but it seems every time I try to be a trader I get burned. Also I would never set up a margin account that is needed for shorting - I don't do credit cards and only have a debit card. I wish you luck it looks like it may work out for you. Be glad I am not shorting or for sure the price would go up..
P
PeacePlan
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By the way no one should hate you for shorting as you will at some point have to cover the short and buy back in. When JP Morgan shorts it seems they never have to buy back the silver? We should get a good rise when the shorts cover - seems to be a lot of them.
Shorted silver today
*let the righteous indignation of silver bulls commence*
You got balls, I give you credit for the courage. What was your entry point and do you have an exit point in mind or a stop %?
Cowlesy
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In ZSL at $16.90 a share today, price jumped to $17.51 or a 3.6% gain for the day.
If I got a 1.5% up-tick tomorrow, I would sell and take the 5% in 2 days gain. Or if blasts off, I'll hold for another day and see if greed can increase my future donation to Ron Paul. If it gets crushed tomorrow, I hope to lose no more than 2% on the trade, so I'd probably stop myself at $16.57 to the downside.
Well played.
I got AGQ monday morning for about 311 and when the pullback started happening at 47/oz my gut was telling me to take a short position as well but I simply did not have the strength, now i'm stuck with AGQ down 15% holding it for god only knows how long.... I might double down if we get down into the mid 30's/oz but maybe not because July & August scare me.
Cowlesy
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Oh man be very very careful my friend. AGQ does not track spot silver, it's tracking double the daily price movement. You can get absolutely smashed if silver heads down violently but then only meanders its way back up. Since it resets everyday, a few days largely in the wrong direction can make it almost impossible to recover from.
Invest $100.00.
Day 1 - 5% gain - balance of $105 - 5% gain/loss
Day 2 - 7% gain - balance of $112.35 - 12.3% gain
Day 3 - 12% loss - balance of $98.87 -1.3% loss
Day 4 - 5% loss - balance of $93.93 - 6.1% loss
Day 5 - 5% gain - balance of $98.63 - 1.4% loss
Day 6 - 5% gain - balance of $103.62 - 3.6% gain
The simplication above shows how easy two really bad down days can be extremely difficult to recover from.
Amplify that by the enormous moves lately in some of these ETFs, and they can lead to disaster.
I would not track my buy/sells of this based on spot price, but rather the volatility of the swings.
EDIT: I did some fuzzy math -- tried to fix it but doing it on the fly -- let me know if it doesn't make any sense!
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swissaustrian
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I´m considering dumping my shorts too. But i´ll hold them for now as they serve as a hedge for my physical.
I´m also not convinced that we have seen the bottom now. The psychological barrier of $ 40 was broken. This will probably scare some more people out of paper.
I´m also not convinced that we have seen the bottom now. The psychological barrier of $ 40 was broken. This will probably scare some more people out of paper.
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ThyGivaOfRep
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bump for stupidity!
It's stupid to short a falling asset class (albeit a short term correction) to make some money?
hmmmm...
hmmmm...
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