What states can Paul win, realistically?

BrittanySligar said:
We're NOT GOING TO WIN NEVADA! You people are living in a dream world. take off the goddamn liberty googles. Romney got 40+% in 2008. WAKE UP. GET REAL. GET OFF THE FUCKING INTERNET!
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Says the one going crazy over the internet.

As has already been said in another thread by someone close to the campaign.. We won't win the straw poll in Nevada, but will win the delegates, just like we did in Iowa.
 
braane said:
The campaign is really going to have to go for it all in Nevada, I would think. That's really all they have got. If they are serious about winning(which I have no reason to believe they aren't)... they are just going to have to pump all of their cash in and hope. If they win, then the funding will be there going forward and immediately following.
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Nevada is unlikely because of Romney. But Washington, Louisiana.... California is only realistic if Ron has had enough success by then. The ideology would be ok, but California isn't going to hate Romney and usually goes with someone they feel is a contender. He may get delegates from CA since those are proportional by district, but I think he'll need wins before then to take the state. The Orange County Register likes Ron, though.
 
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Shouldn't Ron Paul have a decent shot at Texas? I haven't heard anything about this yet. Texas is around 140 delegates, that could be huge for his campaign if he won.
 
i think we have to win two out of three from maine, nevada and minnesota to have a chance. that would change the dynamic that paul isnt electable. if he comes in 2nd 3rd in those states, this will become about getting a pretty speech at the convention although i hope he decides to go third party
 
i hate to say this, but Ron Paul should skip Florida. it sounds crappy for grassroots in Florida, but it feels best to go that route. although, i hope Florida grassroots will keep educating people. it is not moot. in the long run, it will help.
 
ronnilingus said:
Shouldn't Ron Paul have a decent shot at Texas? I haven't heard anything about this yet. Texas is around 140 delegates, that could be huge for his campaign if he won.
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Depending on who drops out, it could be a 2 or 3 man race by the time Texas comes around on April 3rd. Just so folks know, we control a lot of delegates and precient chairs in Texas. So at the very least we will have some power in a brokered convention. I live in Texas, our precient is all Ron Paul, 17 delegates and the chair.
 
I think Nevada, North Dakota, California, Montana, Oregon and Washington (a lot of Western states) will definitely be Ron Paul's for the taking this time around.
 
sailingaway said:
Nevada is unlikely because of Romney. But Washington, Louisiana.... California is only realistic if Ron has had enough success by then. The ideology would be ok, but California isn't going to hate Romney and usually goes with someone they feel is a contender. He may get delegates from CA since those are proportional by district, but I think he'll need wins before then to take the state. The Orange County Register likes Ron, though.
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Actually, I was wrong. I am looking at the schedule... and there is 3 contests(and actually Missouri doesn't even count) just after Nevada on the 7th. So a strong second in Nevada should be plenty. Winning Washington would be fantastic. Colorado is Romney's in a big way. Getting 2nd there would be a positive.
 
if gingrich is out of control and bursting at the seams.. yall think RP and romney will team up even more so? then afterwards go at each other.
 
ronnilingus said:
Shouldn't Ron Paul have a decent shot at Texas? I haven't heard anything about this yet. Texas is around 140 delegates, that could be huge for his campaign if he won.
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No, the polling was horrific. Last place in a multi candidate race, not second or third choice and blown out badly in a 2 person race with Romney.
 
Paul was second to Cain in Tennessee. Maybe something could come from it if Santorum is out by then.
 
braane said:
The campaign is really going to have to go for it all in Nevada, I would think. That's really all they have got. If they are serious about winning(which I have no reason to believe they aren't)... they are just going to have to pump all of their cash in and hope. If they win, then the funding will be there going forward and immediately following.
Click to expand...

I dont think we are going to win NV, but with all the positioning, we may end up with most of the delegates.
 
Oddone said:
The campaign looked forward to focus on Nevada, Minnesota, Louisiana, Maine, Colorado, Puerto Rico etc. We knew we could not take South Carolina or Florida. Heck we are the only campaign going for US Territories. Example, Puerto Rico in 2008 only had 208 votes at their caucuse which will give whoever wins 23 delegates. We have a group there now that is focusing on taking those votes, thats 23 delegates and so few people vote. Compare that to SC who will award 25 delegates today and will have hundreds of thousands vote.

(I guess I might as well copy paste this around lol)
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I need to move to Puerto Rico. That's some voter power there!
 
ronpaulitician said:
data
States where Paul received more than 10% of the votes in 2008.

Pennsylvania (16%)
Oregon (15%)
Idaho (24%)
New Mexico (14%)
South Dakota (17%)
Kansas (11%)
North Dakota (21%)
Montana (25%)
Minnesota (16%)
Alaska (17%)
Maine (18%)
Nevada (14%)
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Don't forget Louisiana
 
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