What states can Paul win, realistically?

[sailingaway]

No, the polling was horrific. Last place in a multi candidate race, not second or third choice and blown out badly in a 2 person race with Romney.

But he polled tied for first for a Senate seat there, earlier. And it is an open primary, whereas current polling tends to be GOP. And our people will work the caucuses. It depends on what happens between now and then.

 

[Sarge]

I am doing a repeat post. VA is being overlooked for a possible easier win.

Look close at the numbers. Mitt has big problems in VA if it goes like the last election.

Everyone needs to look at this for VA vote count for 2008,

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/VA-R.phtml

Need a simple, side by side, inexpensive ad comparison of Ron vs Mitt and flood VA with them. We can take VA and the 49 delegates. Not much time to come up with an ad and pass them out.

Look at Ron Paul and his numbers in 2008. This might be the quickest 49 delegates to grab.

You can bet Newt, if still in, has a big problem on who is he going to attack. Mitt or Ron. Does he have the money to attack both? I think Rick will be out by March.

Need to go for the older voters as well this time.

 

[nemt4paul]

Paul lost a close "closed caucus" in Montana last time around to Romney, however, the party has changed the rules back to an open primary (in my opinion due to the fact Ron did so well last time).

Ron did finish with 25% of the vote in the open primary in 08' though (they still ran the primary even though it didn't have any consequence), however, winning an open primary state is going to be difficult even in Montana. McCain won the primary in 2008.

 

[TheDriver]

I would like to see polling showing Paul can win in any of the upcoming states.

Thanks!

The fat lady is singing, isn't she?

 

[newbitech]

i hate to say this, but Ron Paul should skip Florida. it sounds crappy for grassroots in Florida, but it feels best to go that route. although, i hope Florida grassroots will keep educating people. it is not moot. in the long run, it will help.

just want to say, I am glad to see you here. For many of us, this IS the long run. 4-5 years is about all the politics I can stand in my life. Hate to be that way, but seriously, I am no Ron Paul.

 

[realtonygoodwin]

But he polled tied for first for a Senate seat there, earlier. And it is an open primary, whereas current polling tends to be GOP. And our people will work the caucuses. It depends on what happens between now and then.

That was last summer. PPP isn't polling just GOP, they have about 5% independents included I think.

 

[Indy Vidual]

just want to say, I am glad to see you here. For many of us, this IS the long run. 4-5 years is about all the politics I can stand in my life. Hate to be that way, but seriously, I am no Ron Paul.

+1
The Time to find freedom without politics is approaching?

 

[RonPaul101.com]

I'd go right to NV and ME to campaign. The sooner the better.

 

[bobburn]

Brittany, that was with a total turn out of less than 35k! Romney won with 22k votes! Ron Paul can VERY EASILY win Nevada if they get the vote out and focus on it.

 

[hueylong]

All these whining negative nellies are giving me the red *ss.

 

[libertybrewcity]

data
States where Paul received more than 10% of the votes in 2008.

Pennsylvania (16%)
Oregon (15%)
Idaho (24%)
New Mexico (14%)
South Dakota (17%)
Kansas (11%)
North Dakota (21%)
Montana (25%)
Minnesota (16%)
Alaska (17%)
Maine (18%)
Nevada (14%)

I'm assuming a lot of these have gone to proportional voting system as well. If RP can get at least 15 or 20% in these states, he can receive a sizable amount of delegates.

 

[opinionatedfool]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

The whole idea about a speaking gig at the convention is upsurd. He's traveling around the country getting heard by millions of people. Why the heck would he care about one more speech. The idea is completely ridiculous.

 

[Paul4Prez]

He can win all of the remaining states (well, maybe all except Florida) if everyone who likes him turns out to vote. Voter turnout in the primaries has been very low. John McCain won with 8 million votes last time. If Ron Paul's support is at 10-15 percent nationally, that would be easily 10 to 15 million votes. Unfortunately, most people don't vote in the primaries.

 

[RaptorNtc]

He won't win a single state if he doesn't address to the American people how he will protect America.

Right now, all the Republicans think he is insane with his foreign policy and will let terrorists roam free everywhere. A lot of Republicans love everything about him except his foreign policy. Until this misconception is fixed, don't count on winning any states.

 

[Travlyr]

The fat lady is singing, isn't she?

The third State primary and you are throwing in the towel? Do you understand that the GOP winner needs 1144 delegates to win? So far Newt is leading the delegates and he isn't even on the ballot in his home State! If you are waiting for the fat lady to sing... don't hold your breath. This nomination process is a long way from over.

 

[SaulPaulinsky]

Coming up soon, Paul can win NV, ME and MN. Then WA before Super Tuesday where ND, ID, AK, VA, VT that I can think of are in play.

After that, too early to say. Getting some of these wins would figure to cause a momentum shift that could change the math dramatically from what it is now.

 

[Shane Harris]

I will keep in mind any states Ron does exceptionally well in as potential places to move to after I graduate college.

 

[hueylong]

The process has just started. Get a grip on reality.

 

[presence]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/PR-R

Puerto Rico

23 Delagates

 

[TheDriver]

The third State primary and you are throwing in the towel? Do you understand that the GOP winner needs 1144 delegates to win? So far Newt is leading the delegates and he isn't even on the ballot in his home State! If you are waiting for the fat lady to sing... don't hold your breath. This nomination process is a long way from over.

The race won't be decided with delegates--mark my words. We're going in the wrong direction (2nd, 3rd, 4th). I don't see any state we can win, and I don't see us picking up many supporters from the other candidates--due to principle stands taken by Ron that has cost us political capital. We can slug it out, and waste our money on a losing process, or we can get out of the way and focus on winnable races. I'm going with the latter, I'm afraid. If I see something that changes my mind, I reserve that right.