Here's what Erik Erikson of Redstate says on his blog "The Horserace".
"Ron Paul
Ron Paul gets a bump up this week in the horserace.
People are waking up to a surprising new ad by Ron Paul today. His first ad. And it is about the debt ceiling. It is a brilliant and well done ad. As I’ve said in the past, Paul won’t be the nominee, but he could be hugely influential on the fiscal message.
Ron Paul’s ad sets the bar very high today and is going to, thankfully, force the other candidates to get into the fight over the debt ceiling, probably starting with Bachmann. The frontrunners cannot afford for Paul to get ahead of them on this issue and, given the political climate, this is actually a way for Ron Paul to creep up in the polls."
http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/07/14/the-horserace-for-july-14-2011/
And yes, there's the token disqualifier that "Ron Paul won't be the nominee". But in his opening lines, before he gets into the details on each candidate, he mentions them briefly. Of Ron Paul, he says, "And then there is Ron Paul. Ron Paul is suddenly surprising a lot of people, including me."
Also, if this ad is, as he says, "a way for Ron Paul to creep up in the polls", well he could just creep past Romney. In the last Iowa poll Romney was at 18% and Ron Paul was at 14%