Rasmussen counter-story Iowa poll

[lucent]

This is what you call damage control. Two Iowa polls out of Iowa put Ron Paul in 2nd. Two outside polling companies polling Iowa put him where he was at previously. Something is definitely off.

 

[jsingh1022]

These Rasmussen polls are now getting comical.

Yes! Do not be fooled Ron Paul supporters. Rasmussen is an establishment polling organization. They are supporting the same agenda as the establishment mainstream media.

Gingrich was polling at a scant 5% on 10/15 in Iowa. 1 month later Rasmussen is reporting 32% for Gingrich. They really expect people to believe like magic 1 in 3 Iowans is a Gingrich supporter. For what?! What has Gingrich done in last month that would increase his poll numbers six-fold? Answer: absolutely nothing. The media is giving him a surge of coverage and that is all.

 

[icon124]

Come on clearly there is a HUGE difference between this and the other polls. I was always suspicious of Rassmussen but seriously....

This is getting past funny and annoying to almost down right evil.

 

[2young2vote]

They must have used different polling techniques. There is no way they could be 9% off from the other polls, unless they are fixing the polls somehow.

 

[lucent]

They must have used different polling techniques. There is no way they could be 9% off from the other polls, unless they are fixing the polls somehow.

Yeah, that polling technique is called fabrication.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Rasmussen is the polling outfit that Hannity loves to spout and tends to have Ras on his show from time to time. Wouldn't it be something that Sean has Ron on today to talk about him doing well in IA and NH then bring up this polling nonsense. Clearly, the message to take from this is that Cain is out and Grinch is in. Attack

 

[No Free Beer]

2 polls > 1 rasmussen

 

[69360]

They have lost all credibility. How the hell do they explain the vast discrepancies from the other 2 polls? They aren't even close.

 

[NeoconTea]

Actually theres 3 polls. Insider Advantage, The Polling Company, and Rasmussen. However, 2 are sketchy and 1 is evil.

The 2 that have RP at 19 and 20 seem much more unbiased. University polls are unbiased because their methods are right in the open. Selzer is trusted as well.

So what you've got here is 2 credible polls vs 3 sketchy ones. I wouldn't say that we can take the 19-20 at face value, but were definitely at 15 or higher. This should just be more motivation to phone and canvass.

 

[lucent]

They are doing the same thing for Newt as they did with Cain. Cain had a polling agency launch him ahead with a ridiculous lead (polling in the 30s or 40s) and it was counter to every other poll. It was a week or two later he started to go up in the other polls.

 

[Brett85]

At least they have Cain collapsing, even if they're clearly trying to hurt Paul.

Yes, I'm sure Scott Rasmussen has some kind of secret agenda against Ron. Lol. In reality, they simply have a different polling methodology. They only poll people who have voted in GOP primaries in past years.

 

[mwkaufman]

A large gap is here between Gingrich and Paul's numbers in RV or registered voters polls and their numbers in LV or likely voters polls. Likely voters are a subset of registered voters that polling companies think are more likely to vote based on past voting history. For example, voting in the 2010 election would likely lead to being a likely voter. And important to Paul, a lot of his supporters are likely not to fit that criterion.

RV Iowa Poll Average

23% Cain
20% Paul
17% Romney
11% Gingrich

LV Iowa Poll Average

22% Gingrich
19% Cain
17% Romney
10% Paul

I'm a little surprised that Romney doesn't do better in the LV model, but it certainly doesn't surprise me that Gingrich does. It's also not surprising that Paul and Cain do better in the RV department. The effect extends to polling on New Hampshire, South Carolina, and nationally as well, although only Rasmussen has a national LV model.

 

[sanssq]

Eventually this could work to our advantage. If Paul does better in a primary, then you can bet I'll be quoting the discredited pollsters and pointing out that Paul is doing better than they claim.

 

[sailingaway]

Actually theres 3 polls. Insider Advantage, The Polling Company, and Rasmussen. However, 2 are sketchy and 1 is evil.

The 2 that have RP at 19 and 20 seem much more unbiased. University polls are unbiased because their methods are right in the open. Selzer is trusted as well.

So what you've got here is 2 credible polls vs 3 sketchy ones. I wouldn't say that we can take the 19-20 at face value, but were definitely at 15 or higher. This should just be more motivation to phone and canvass.

those were earlier in time, not since Cain started to implode, I don't consider the earlier ones relevant at this point. The real thing is that Ron does not lie and he said Bloomberg (later confirmed by the other Iowa poll) was consistent with his internal polling. All the 'bad' ones are GOP establishment ones who tend to stack the house with those why TYPICALLY vote Republican, which makes a huge difference in this election when there is no real choice on the Dem side to be made.

 

[sailingaway]

Eventually this could work to our advantage. If Paul does better in a primary, then you can bet I'll be quoting the discredited pollsters and pointing out that Paul is doing better than they claim.

they will suddenly fall in line 2 weeks before the event, but they will try to kill momentum before that. That is what happened in Rand's case with PPP etc.

 

[lucent]

A large gap is here between Gingrich and Paul's numbers in RV or registered voters polls and their numbers in LV or likely voters polls. Likely voters are a subset of registered voters that polling companies think are more likely to vote based on past voting history. For example, voting in the 2010 election would likely lead to being a likely voter. And important to Paul, a lot of his supporters are likely not to fit that criterion.

RV Iowa Poll Average

23% Cain
20% Paul
17% Romney
11% Gingrich

LV Iowa Poll Average

22% Gingrich
19% Cain
17% Romney
10% Paul

I'm a little surprised that Romney doesn't do better in the LV model, but it certainly doesn't surprise me that Gingrich does. It's also not surprising that Paul and Cain do better in the RV department. The effect extends to polling on New Hampshire, South Carolina, and nationally as well, although only Rasmussen has a national LV model.

So who determines who is likely to vote?

 

[ShaneEnochs]

See guys? I even made a thread talking about this a week or two ago, and all of you ridiculed me.

Shane knows what's going on

 

[trey4sports]

Yes, I'm sure Scott Rasmussen has some kind of secret agenda against Ron. Lol. In reality, they simply have a different polling methodology. They only poll people who have voted in GOP primaries in past years.

I know you're being sarcastic, and I typically try to stay away from conspiratorial matters on these boards, but Rasmussen does create their own narrative and play up candidates they like and punish ones they don't. FNC does not want to play up the angle of Ron Paul the frontrunner and this Rasmussen poll gives them an easy way to deny Ron's support. Besides, It's November and Ras. can spin this poll as much as he likes this far out from the Caucus.

 

[mwkaufman]

So who determines who is likely to vote?

That's up to the polling company. RV generally means they ask, and count if they say they're definitely or probably going to vote in the caucus. LV means they might throw out some of those people if they say, didn't vote in many past elections or who knows.

 

[trey4sports]

they will suddenly fall in line 2 weeks before the event, but they will try to kill momentum before that. That is what happened in Rand's case with PPP etc.

RCP still missed Obama by 8 points even in the last 2 week stretch of the Iowa Caucus. They very well could still be underplaying Ron's support.