Rasmussen counter-story Iowa poll

[lucent]

Jan Mickelson did a segment on polling the other week. He said when they call, he gives a random candidate each time and he gets a lot of calls, all robocalls. His co-host said he consistently votes his candidate and he rarely gets calls and he gets people physically calling him. I thought it was a unusual peculiarity, but now I see what is happening. These companies like Rassmusen know who you support and they can easily decide who they want to call.

 

[sanssq]

"Likely voters" is not an accurate measurement when a candidate is a advocate for a completely different agenda. Disenfranchised voters are among this demographic. Those are Pat Buchanan Paleoconservatives and libertarians that were discouraged in prior elections. Also Paul has a lot of new registered voters which are never included as "likely voters". The key will be who can get the vote out and who is the most enthusiastic..... Also who are the most discouraged. Those that are discussed with their choices will be the most likely not to show up.

 

[NeoconTea]

I'm pretty sure the Bloomberg poll was LV, and RCP just made an error. Selzer & Co's last poll was listed as LV, and I doubt their methodology changed.

Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are in a dead heat as the top choices for Iowans likely to attend the Jan. 3 Republican presidential caucuses.

 

[sanssq]

Note also, if the pollsters get the idea that they are going to look ridiculous on primary day, they will change their polling technique a couple weeks before the primary.

 

[sailingaway]

RCP still missed Obama by 8 points even in the last 2 week stretch of the Iowa Caucus. They very well could still be underplaying Ron's support.

Yeah, I was speaking of specific pollsters, not just RCP. Specific pollsters with a contrary story line veered DRAMATICALLY at the two week mark from their prior poll numbers. It was amusing at that point, because we were clearly winning.

 

[Brett85]

People, this is simply the difference between polls of all registered voters like we saw in the two polls that Ron did well in, and polls of voters who have voted in GOP primaries in the past. Many of Ron's voters are new voters who haven't voted in previous primaries, and some of his support isn't reflected in polls of "likely" Republican voters. I'm still not exactly sure which method will end up being the most accurate, but there isn't any kind of secret "conspiracy" against Ron by Rasmussen. Rasmussen has always used a very tight screen when determining which voters are going to show up and vote. This isn't a new method that they just started using. It's the same method they've used since they first started up.

 

[justatrey]

Rasmussen polls are complete bullsh*t. We should know this by now!

Rasmussen has shown us over and over that they are biased towards Paul. Pay no attention to Rasmussen "polls"!

 

[Zydeco]

The whole system is collapsing -- financial, political, military, legal, educational, monetary -- and the polling system is a small but important part of that. Their role is to guide the population into the correct political choices, to give them the illusion of control.

So it's no surprise that the lies of the pollsters ("Gingrich -- 32% in Iowa") are just as large as those of the educational system ("Student debt is smart debt"), the military system ("We're spreading democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan"), the monetary system ("China is manipulating their currency") etc.

Take it in stride -- we have 7 weeks before the primary, and Newt is the last arrow in their quiver. Tactically it's best to shine the light on him now that erstwhile top-tier candidates Bachmann, Perry and Cain are gone or going.

 

[sailingaway]

People, this is simply the difference between polls of all registered voters like we saw in the two polls that Ron did well in, and polls of voters who have voted in GOP primaries in the past. Many of Ron's voters are new voters who haven't voted in previous primaries, and some of his support isn't reflected in polls of "likely" Republican voters. I'm still not exactly sure which method will end up being the most accurate, but there isn't any kind of secret "conspiracy" against Ron by Rasmussen. Rasmussen has always used a very tight screen when determining which voters are going to show up and vote. This isn't a new method that they just started using. It's the same method they've used since they first started up.

this is true, but it will be true going forward as well, which is why we can't really expect media to change, particularly on Fox who uses the same polling company. WE have to work hard and get Ron money to get ads out.

 

[PastaRocket848]

fwiw rasmussen *is* the gold standard of polling. then again the de moines register polls are also highly regarded. this just goes to show how much polls can vary based on methodology.

 

[seapilot]

This smells of like when the Rating agencies were giving subprime mortgages bundled into investment packages a AAA Rating.

 

[69360]

Gold standard? 1 in 3 Iowa GOP voters is going to vote for Newt? That's unbelievable given his background. Rasmussen doesn't pick the nominee, neither does Faux news. We are going to make their heads explode when Ron wins.

 

[matt0611]

Gingrich 32%?
LMAO
They wish.

 

[wgadget]

SO I guess it's time for the talk radio heads to re-start talking about the "polls."

 

[Inkblots]

fwiw rasmussen *is* the gold standard of polling. then again the de moines register polls are also highly regarded. this just goes to show how much polls can vary based on methodology.

"Gold standard"? Didn't they have one of the worst records of any major pollster in predicting outcomes in 2008?

 

[GHoeberX]

Look this might be a valid poll, it's just a case of contacting a non-representative part of the voters!

However, the latest FOX-news poll is rigged; check this out:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...(Nationally)&p=3753655&viewfull=1#post3753655

 

[AuH20]

Newt has practically no organization. 30% is way too high.

 

[InTradePro]

Fake poll.

One poll has Grinrich at 4.8% another at 32%.
Rasmussen polls along with PP are GOP propaganda.

It does show that the establishment have given up with Cain. I'm confident his support has weakened little so far and another sign this poll is fake.

 

[sailingaway]

fwiw rasmussen *is* the gold standard of polling. then again the de moines register polls are also highly regarded. this just goes to show how much polls can vary based on methodology.

Only in the last two weeks for the 2008 race, and they were tracked race long and there was a write up about how they moved in the middle when they weren't being graded out there... And they were NEVER gold standard for caucuses.

 

[sailingaway]

Fake poll.

One poll has Grinrich at 4.8% another at 32%.
Rasmussen polls along with PP are GOP propaganda.

It does show that the establishment have given up with Cain. I'm confident his support has weakened little so far and another sign this poll is fake.

PP is a Dem poll. They are even officially rated as such. they have a very different angle because they know Ron not only leads Obama with independents he DRAINS AWAY OBAMA'S ACTIVISTS. They are now using Rasmussen like house for their polls which is WAY off from how they typically poll.