Rand at 5% in CNN/ORC Poll (Tied 5th)

[MrGoose]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/10/19/rel11b.-.republicans.pdf



Trump 27%
Carson 22%
Bush 8%
Rubio 8%
Huckabee 5%
Paul 5%
Christie 4%
Cruz 4%
Fiorina 4%
Kasich 3%
Santorum 2%

 

[ross11988]

Still not polling under 30, non whites, and democrats

 

[SilentBull]

Was about to post this. Great to see him ahead of Cruz.

He's now also ahead of Christie in the average of polls being used for the debate:

Paul 3.125
Kasich 3.125
Christie 3.0

One more poll like this one and he'll be #8 on the debate stage.

 

[georgiaboy]

directionally correct.

this in spite of the media's attempts to marginalize him and get him to drop out. awesome.

 

[SilentBull]

Graham finally got the 1% he needed to be included. Sucks. I was really hoping to never see him again.

 

[65fastback2+2]

Graham finally got the 1% he needed to be included. Sucks. I was really hoping to never see him again.

its an average...he's still polling at 0% on average...so we wont have to see him

 

[MrGoose]

directionally correct.

this in spite of the media's attempts to marginalize him and get him to drop out. awesome.

Maybe they'll ask others if they'll drop out now... Lol

 

[SilentBull]

its an average...he's still polling at 0% on average...so we wont have to see him

For the small debate I believe all you need is 1% in one poll.

 

[limequat]

For the small debate I believe all you need is 1% in one poll.

Yes, Lindsay will now get in

On the bright side good to see Rand trending up!

Also good news, none of the establishment picks can even get into double digits (bush, Rubio, Fiorina...all 8% or less). Expect to see some extreme measures if this keeps up.

 

[Liberty74]

Still not polling under 30, non whites, and democrats

What? Why would pollsters poll people who don't vote in the Republican primaries? If they did, that poll would be out of whack and not representative of the voters in such primary or caucus who actually turn out. This is what many in here don't get. Reality is reality. You can't change it and then be all upset your type of voters aren't being polled.

Under 30 will be 10-15% of the voters
Non-whites will be 1-2%
Democrats will be 1%

In contrast, 45 and up voters are 65% who claim to be more religious than not and 99% white. That's who f'ing votes in Republican primaries.

5% is decent for now and better than Cruz

 

[limequat]

What? Why would pollsters poll people who don't vote in the Republican primaries? If they did, that poll would be out of whack and not representative of the voters in such primary or caucus who actually turn out. This is what many in here don't get. Reality is reality. You can't change it and then be all upset your type of voters aren't being polled.

Under 30 will be 10-15% of the voters
Non-whites will be 1-2%
Democrats will be 1%

In contrast, 45 and up voters are 65% who claim to be more religious than not and 99% white. That's who f'ing votes in Republican primaries.

5% is decent for now and better than Cruz

Forget under 30. They're not polling under 50!

 

[Xenliad]

Headline: Huckabee SUUUURGING

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Yes, Lindsay will now get in

On the bright side good to see Rand trending up!

Also good news, none of the establishment picks can even get into double digits (bush, Rubio, Fiorina...all 8% or less). Expect to see some extreme measures if this keeps up.

It's great if Lindsey comes in, he's gonna attack Rand non-stop.. And nobody likes Lindsey.

 

[adam220891]

Good debate and money bomb and maybe we can continue trending upwards

 

[erowe1]

Still not polling under 30, non whites, and democrats

I take it you didn't read the poll methodology at the link in the OP.

 

[squirl22]

Just saw this! Good news! I still can't believe Kasich would have any support at all; and Huckabee??? Fiorina's media created popularity went down hill fast.

 

[whoisjohngalt]

What? Why would pollsters poll people who don't vote in the Republican primaries? If they did, that poll would be out of whack and not representative of the voters in such primary or caucus who actually turn out. This is what many in here don't get. Reality is reality. You can't change it and then be all upset your type of voters aren't being polled.

Under 30 will be 10-15% of the voters
Non-whites will be 1-2%
Democrats will be 1%

In contrast, 45 and up voters are 65% who claim to be more religious than not and 99% white. That's who f'ing votes in Republican primaries.

5% is decent for now and better than Cruz

So what, roughly 40% of voters are under 50? And they have 0 in this poll yet you are arguing it's representative?

 

[Todd]

I take it you didn't read the poll methodology at the link in the OP.

I checked it and it says NA for all of these. Did we miss something.

 

[Brett85]

Was about to post this. Great to see him ahead of Cruz.

He's now also ahead of Christie in the average of polls being used for the debate:

Paul 3.125
Kasich 3.125
Christie 3.0

One more poll like this one and he'll be #8 on the debate stage.

Has CNBC said how they'll determine what the tie breaker is in the event that Rand and Kasich end up with the same percentage?

 

[whoisjohngalt]

I checked it and it says NA for all of these. Did we miss something.

My bad, it's because the sample size is too small. See explanation from limequat below:

"Of course, they won't show directly in any poll, but you can calculate it for yourself based on the latest CNN Poll

CNN marks confidence levels of >8.5% as "NA". For a group to be marked NA with a sample size of 465, the NA sample has to be less than 133.
The total republican sample size is 465 of which Rand get's 5% of the vote.
He gets 1% with the "over 50" age group.

We can take those numbers to write this equation...

Samples Under 50 * X + Samples Over 50 * Percentage = Total Samples * Percentage
133 * X = 317 * 1% = 465 * 5%

X = 15%"