I have no reason to believe that the Quinnipiac poll isn't reasonably reliable. It is probably one of the big reasons why Dodd quit the race.
However, the polling was done between Aug 3-8. The earlier respondents wouldn't have had a chance to see Peter's ads so it quite possible that the poll understates the movement in Peter's direction somewhat. Nonetheless, it's hard for me to think that you can close a gap this wide with just a few days of advertising and with only $500,000 against a candidate who has already thrown $22 million into the race.
Worse still, is the showing for Simmons. If Peter were to have any chance, he needed Simmons to take some more votes away from McMahon, but the movement has been the other way. She's pulling 50% in a three-way race. I have hopes that Schiff might top the 20% mark, but even that's probably optimistic. If could actually pass up Simmons, it would be huge achievement.
At this point, I'm just hoping that Peter will not get discouraged by this race. He's actually laid a good foundation for another run. I'd love to see him take on Lieberman in '12. He got into this race late and got off to a slow start because he had all kinds of business commitments, but if he keeps campaigning for the next two years he'll be better prepared for the convention and the primary. And I'm sure he's learned a lot. Remember, he started this campaign with no previous political or campaign experience and without even having won any kind of election.
I know this sounds a bit defeatist and I hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't look good at this point.
