prediction thread for Michigan

[hcbrand]

Double digits will get us back on the news. Since the newsletter, there hasn't been a mention of the paul campaign in the MSM.

 

[hvac ak47]

McCain 30%
Romney 26%
Huckabee 17%
Rudy 16%
Ron 6%
Fred 5%

 

[2young2vote]

Romney 34%
Huckabee 28%
McCain 18%
Rudy 10%
Ron 5%
Fred 5%

I hate to say it but i don't think Ron is going to do good at all here. I and many other people in my school have gotten lots of Romney and Huckabee phone calls and there are lots of adds on the local channels.

Although i have heard quite a few radio adds for Ron (mostly the NAFTA one) during Rush Limbaugh. I think lots of the people in Michigan are sheeple.

 

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

Was talking to a friend in MI today, I told him, you better get off your ass and vote of you want a job.

Four years ago the man was on top of the world, I don't even want to go into how bad it's got for him, it is shocking.

I think one of Romney's companies may be hiring soon. I saw him on TV yesterday talking about how he was going to provide jobs for people in Michigan.

 

[ProfNo]

Double digits will get us back on the news. Since the newsletter, there hasn't been a mention of the paul campaign in the MSM.

True...we need double digits. The blackout has been especially intense...not one mention of Paul ever.

I think we have a shot at 4th. If there is a ton of crossover, and in the best possible situation, 3rd. We may end up with 5th again which would really suck.

 

[Original_Intent]

Michigan it is all about if the Democrats stay home or vote in the GOP primaries.

Of course the downside of that is that if RP does well, they will attribute it to Dem's trying to mess up the GOP result.

 

[stevedasbach]

Here are my predictions (trying to realistic, not optomistic nor pessimistic). I assumed most of the undecided will split evenly for Romney and McCain, with Huckabee picking up 2% and Paul picking up just over 1%. Thompson's at the bottom so I assumed the wasted vote syndrome would cost him just over 1%.

Romney 32%
McCain 31%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 8%
Giuliani 6%
Thompson 4%
Other 1%

 

[Galileo Galilei]

4th Place.

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

I won't bother with the percentages, but...

McCain
Romney (a very close second, but he will probably consider dropping out)
Huckabee
Giuliani (a weak fourth, barely above Thompson)
Thompson
Paul (the most recent RCP average has him at fourth, but the newsletter controversy is unfortunately the most press he's had in months)
Hunter

I was optimistic before Iowa and New Hampshire, so now I'm trying a different strategy.

 

[break4me]

1st- Other
2nd- Other
3rd- Other
4th- Rep. Ron Paul
5th- Other
6th- Other

 

[celticsman7]

We just need to hope to break 10%. That would look good. Every showing needs to be better than the last. So 11% is something to shoot for. Hopefully we get 15%.

 

[FreedomLover]

Romney 32%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 9%
Thompson 5%

 

[familydog]

I'm not banking on very much of a crossover vote. A lot of people thought that anti-war independents would go for Ron Paul in New Hampshire and as we can see they either went for Obama or McCain confused. I'm not sure how we can expect Ron Paul to do so well when he really hasn't spent much time or money there.

I'm not sure on %, but I'm going with Paul getting 5th. Only beating Thompson and Hunter.

 

[AlexK]

I predict Ron Paul will get 7%.

 

[AgentPaul001]

Well at least 6%, but not sure how much higher it could go.

Here is what I'd like to see (and reasonable).


Romney: 29%
McCain 25%
Huckabee 19%
Paul: 9%
Guiliani: 8%
Thompson: 8%

A 4th Place finish would certainly help the campaign and its definitely achievable if our supporters turn out to the polls. Its hard to guage whether we can get a 3rd place finish since the numbers are changing so rapidly for most candidates, but that would be an amazing success for the campaign to place Top 3 in Michigan.

 

[AdamT]

Since HQ did virtually nothing in MI, 4th would be a damn miracle. 3rd would turn the race on it's head.

 

[life_boy]

GOP Michigan Primary Prediction (30 Delegates)
Out of 1,420,000 Voters

McCain – 450,140 (31.7 %)
Romney – 376,300 (26.5 %)
Huckabee – 252,760 (17.8 %)
Paul – 137,740 (9.7 %)
Giuliani – 89,460 (6.3 %)
Thompson – 73,840 (5.2 %)
Hunter – 25,560 (1.8 %)
Others – 14,200 (1 %)

Because of the high number of voters in this primary, it will be really difficult to just jump up a percentage point or two the way a candidate could in NH or Iowa. This is the first really large state primary and this will be where the national stats begin to spread out a little. Even a 1.4 million voter estimate is still a little less than 20% of all registered voters in the state of Michigan. I don't think the Democrat dissenting vote will be huge for Paul, but hopefully enough to keep him nicely ahead of Judy.

Alternately, I am currently predicting a very low turnout on the Democratic side. Michigan's DNC Primaries have shown little participation in the past so this amount with no delegates at stake may even be a little generous. Still, Kucinich could do better than what I have listed here if his supporters come out.

DNC Michigan Primary Prediction (No Delegates)
Out of 16,500 Voters

Clinton – 8,316 (50.4 %)
Kucinich – 2,310 (14 %)
Gravel – 759 (4.6 %)
Uncommitted – 5,115 (31 %)

 

[Paul4Prez]

I predict 14% -- 4th place and 2% behind Huckabee.

 

[Karsten]

RP - Third at last

And then we can say third at last, third at last, thank God Almighty, we are third at last.

 

[Kotin]

im going to say 3rd or 4th if we are lucky