prediction thread for Michigan

[Give me liberty]

1st bet

1.Ron Paul 20% of the vote
2.John McCain 18% of the vote
3.Mitt Romney 15% of the vote
4.Fred Thompson 10% of the vote
5.Rudy Giuliani 8% of the vote

2en bet

1.John McCain 21% of the vote
2.Mitt Romney 19 % of the vote
3.Ron Paul 17% of the vote
4.Fred Thompson 9% of the vote
5.Rudy Giuliani 5% of the vote

Well those are my bet predictions
I think Michigan will be very different from NH, but a second place or even a third place wont hurt.


Anyway in this thread you can make your predictions on what will be the outcome of the Michigan election this tuesday.

 

[MinaSulo]

Michigan is still up in the air. If a lot of people across Michigan read my thread and go out there with "No dem delegates, only anti-war republican is Ron Paul, vote him" then I honestly believe we can have first or second. Many people make up their mind who they are going to vote for when they get there! So if they read these signs, they might vote Ron Paul!

 

[santopia]

RP - Third at last

 

[damon04]

McCain 27%
Romney: 25%
Paul: 17%
Guiliani: 14%
Thompson: 11%
Huckabee 6%

 

[coyote_sprit]

Well I can hope that Fred and Rudy slug so their campaign takes a beating and might drop out early, but they probably won't drop out but my predictions are about the same as yours. We can hope Ron will go into the top 3. Though I think if we can get the muslim, liberterians, true conservative, and anti war Dems we'll dominate michigan.

My predictions
1. Paul - 30%% (I can only hope we get the democrats)
2. Romney - 22% (I think Romney will do good in Michigan)
3. McCain - 20% (I think McCain is hurting himself with his draft jokes and over the top support for a war we can't afford.)
4. Trompson - 12%
5. Huckabee - 9%
6. Giuliani - 7% (When will he give up?)

 

[MAGICKAL]

Was talking to a friend in MI today, I told him, you better get off your ass and vote of you want a job.

Four years ago the man was on top of the world, I don't even want to go into how bad it's got for him, it is shocking.

He said, there are people with Ron Paul signs everywhere, he's right outside of Detroit, he said he doesn't see any other candidate's people out with signs or doing anything.

 

[Xenophage]

If we get those Democrats and anti-war independents to the polls, we'll have a stronger showing than we did in New Hampshire, where those votes were taken by the hotly contested Democratic race.

I'm going to say Paul gets 4th place in Michigan if we don't get any of those democrat votes...

If we get all of them, 1st.

 

[Ronpaulwillstandtall]

Mitt Romney:29%
Ron Paul:21%
Huckabee:17%
Mccain:14%
Thompson:10%
Giuliani:9%

 

[sethay]

The polls have been very accurate so far, so:

John 25.3%
Mitt 22.8%
Huck 16%
Paul 6.6%
Rudy 6%
Thompson 5.6%
Hunter .8%

http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/

 

[Proctor]

McCain
Mitt
Huck
Thompson
Paul
Giuliani

Same thing over and over. Primaries are not our strength.

 

[ronpaulwinna]

I'm hoping for an Upset

For the Michigan Primaries, I think everything is up in the air because there is going to be so many cross overs. It would be amazing that the grassroots get people to the polls. That would be the shocker in the race, Ron Paul putting little insight into campaigning in michigan for the past couple of weeks pull out with an upset to take the 30 delegates. Romney would be so demoralized that he lost his own state - by putting his own money all in on his own state and thinking that he won the state.

If you looked at the governors race in 2006, where everything was contentious - I know governors races don't compare to the presidency. However 2006 was a contentious year for the national legislature and it happens to be a governors race included.

The results are included here
Michigan Gubernatorial Election 2006
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jennifer Granholm (Incumbent) 2,142,513 56.3 +4.9
Republican Dick DeVos 1,608,086 42.3
Libertarian Greg Creswell 23,524 0.6 n/a
Green Douglas Campbell 20,009 0.5 -0.3
Constitution Bhagwan Dashairya 7,087 0.2 -0.3
none Write-in candidates 37 0.0 n/a
Majority 534,427 14.0
Turnout 3,801,256 100 +19.6


So basically if we have 6% of that 1.608 million republican standing, we would be in good showing, however, democrats outnumber republicans 2 to 1. So if we take democrats from the state and tell them to vote for ron paul we can easily get at least 500,000 added - where democrats are mostly in the eastern part of the state, we show a great standing in that area. If we get eastern central counties, counties that are in Universities, majority black areas - Detroit, Flint, and the alienated Arabic stronghold of Dearborn, we can win. In addition to that we have to splinter 2nd or 3rd in western Michigan counties.

GRASSROOTS HAVE TO PULL IT OUT!!!

 

[tfelice]

1. Romney 28%
2. McCain 27%
3. Huckabee 18%
4. Thompson 7%
5. Paul 6%
6. Giuliani 6%

 

[ronpaulwinna]

in addition to that. If we get 600,000 votes out of an estimated 2.5 million. We will get 24% of the vote!! Remember, there will be crossovers, so we are counting for that!!! 24% could mean a strong second!!!

 

[Eponym_mi]

1. Romney 28%
2. McCain 25%
3. Huckabee 18%
4. Paul 15%
5. Giuliani 9%
6. Thompson 3%
7. Hunter 2%

 

[David805]

The polls have been very accurate so far, so:

John 25.3%
Mitt 22.8%
Huck 16%
Paul 6.6%
Rudy 6%
Thompson 5.6%
Hunter .8%

http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/

They were not Acurate in New hampshire..

Mehh..

I wont hazerd a guess on how he will do in Mich.. I don't live there. I hope he places in the top 3 or even wins the damn thing.. Just don't know though.

F*cking Media has been screwing him over sense day one.. Bahh

Edit..

BTW .. Go and bloody look at that poll CARFULLY .. Look at the PDF
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/200...t-Presidential-Nomination-Poll-Jan14-2008.pdf

Look and see the questions .. It almost totally left Ron Paul out of the god damn poll questions. ...

Polls are completely useless

 

[Shellshock1918]

1st bet

1.Ron Paul 20% of the vote
2.John McCain 18% of the vote
3.Mitt Romney 15% of the vote
4.Fred Thompson 10% of the vote
5.Rudy Giuliani 8% of the vote

2en bet

1.John McCain 21% of the vote
2.Mitt Romney 19 % of the vote
3.Ron Paul 17% of the vote
4.Fred Thompson 9% of the vote
5.Rudy Giuliani 5% of the vote

Well those are my bet predictions
I think Michigan will be very different from NH, but a second place or even a third place wont hurt.


Anyway in this thread you can make your predictions on what will be the outcome of the Michigan election this tuesday.

And what numbers are these based on. The latest polls I've seen show him in 6th. STOP WITH THE GLOOMY PERFECT PREDICTIONS. We need to work hard to get a surge in the poll numbers before the primary.

 

[Eponym_mi]

The latest polls I've seen show him in 6th.

The polls will not be accurate. They are not polling Dem voters.

 

[DrCap]

3rd or better would be very strong... whenever he beats any of the others, it continues to promote our message that he has something more useful to say and do than some of their 'mainstream' folks.

 

[coyote_sprit]

The AOL straw poll looks dead on to some predictions, lets hope is accurate or lets hope we do better then it says.

 

[Dexter_Roseville]

1. Mitt Romney 30% of the vote
2. Mike Huckabee 25% of the vote
3. John McCain 14% of the vote
4. Rudy Giuliani 12% of the vote
5. Fred Thompson 10% of the vote
6. Ron Paul 8% of the vote
7. Hunter 1% of the vote

I'm expecting 6th, hoping for 4th. I know for a fact there is a ton of Romney supporters, and a good amount of McCain and Huckabee supporters here in Michigan, and our meetup groups are about 1/5 as much per capita as NH (10x the population but only 2x as many meetup members or so).