Agorism
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PPPPolls...
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pauliticalfan
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Shit. I knew this was gonna happen. Who's she taking support away from though? How do we combat this?
trey4sports
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yuck.
eduardo89
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Perry and Santorum probably. Maybe a point from Gingrich.
wgadget
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To quote jclay2 on another thread, InTrade disagrees:
Ron Paul in Second Place in Iowa according to Intrade
For those of you rpfers who are unfamilliar, intrade.com is a website where you can bet on political outcomes and other events. Intrade currently has two bets of interest: Who will come in first place in Iowa and who will come in Second Place. On intrade, all bets are traded in probabilities. So the higher the price, the more likely the outcome. Here are the current markets for those two events.
To win first in Iowa:
1. Newt-60%
2. Ron Paul-22%
3. Mitt Romney-9.5%
4. Michele Bachmann-4.5%
To come in 2nd place in Iowa:
1. Ron Paul-38%
2. Mitt Romney-33%
3. Newt Gingrich-22%
4. Michele Bachmann-5%
This isn't a political poll, but the people on intrade are gambling their own money on these outcomes. Given that the gamblers have put Ron Paul in second place, last night's media blackout is even more absurd.
Ron Paul in Second Place in Iowa according to Intrade
For those of you rpfers who are unfamilliar, intrade.com is a website where you can bet on political outcomes and other events. Intrade currently has two bets of interest: Who will come in first place in Iowa and who will come in Second Place. On intrade, all bets are traded in probabilities. So the higher the price, the more likely the outcome. Here are the current markets for those two events.
To win first in Iowa:
1. Newt-60%
2. Ron Paul-22%
3. Mitt Romney-9.5%
4. Michele Bachmann-4.5%
To come in 2nd place in Iowa:
1. Ron Paul-38%
2. Mitt Romney-33%
3. Newt Gingrich-22%
4. Michele Bachmann-5%
This isn't a political poll, but the people on intrade are gambling their own money on these outcomes. Given that the gamblers have put Ron Paul in second place, last night's media blackout is even more absurd.
dolphin
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Bachman and Ron Paul are sharing most of Cain's supporters.
She is not taking many away from anyone. She is just getting some of Cain's.
pauliticalfan
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The media's been pumping up Bachmann ever since Herman Cain dropped out. So transparent, yet people are falling for it. Ugh.
Okie RP fan
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Eh...
Ron's campaign needs more money to run ads. How is Bachmann surging? I thought she was pretty short on cash?
Ron's campaign needs more money to run ads. How is Bachmann surging? I thought she was pretty short on cash?
ShaneEnochs
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They're sharing Cain's 8% base. Gingrich got all of Cain's soft support. Still, that doesn't seem like it would be enough to put her up in the high teens.
This is what the pundits have been hinting at when they say that social conservatives have not found their candidate YET...we all knew that they are game-changers in the caucuses. Bachmann is and already has been a threat and now she is emerging as one...funny how the debate bump her up so quickly, she took on Newt and Romney very well...and she keeps on repeating that she is the only conservative in the race....I still think that Ron's polls are underestimated by a small margin...
ShaneEnochs
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There's not enough time or money. It's way too close to the caucus. This is in God's hands.
Sola_Fide
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I have been saying for a long time now that Bachmann's decline in Iowa since the straw poll does not make sense within Iowa's evangelical demographic. I have been thinking that some evangelicals would "come home" to Bachmann (and possibly Santorum) in the very end.
My prediction is that Bachmann and Santorum show better than the polls expect them to, unfortunately.
My prediction is that Bachmann and Santorum show better than the polls expect them to, unfortunately.
eduardo89
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Theres no point on attacking her, the benefit would be max 2% increase in the polls. Compare that to the costs of running ads, it's just not worth it. We need to go after Newt as hard as possible.
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