PPP Poll - Iowa GOP Presidential Primary

[MRoCkEd]

Polls this far out should be taken with a grain of salt and PPP is a Democratic pollster to begin with (though they leaned Republican in 2010). Not to mention the margin of errror is +/-4.5% and the sample was pretty small too, being only 481 Republicans. According to this poll the field is a lot tighter too since last time, which is a good thing.

However, the unfavorables jumped 12% and we only picked up 2% of the 41% that went up for grabs. Our favorables also dropped 13%. I'm not exactly sure what to make of this. I would say that the debate hurt us, but I doubt many Iowans watched the debate. However, if Ron's performance in the debate and all his comments in the last month and a half are the reason for these results, there isn't much we can do about it. Ron isn't a slick/coached politician and he probably isn't going to change his ways and the way he presents the message, which is raw and unfiltered. The only other thing that happened in the time span between the two polls was the official campaign beginning operations in Iowa. Maybe this is just an outlier. Whatever it is, these results make the June 5th moneybomb and the way we present our message all the more important and make me even more cautious about the grassroots phonebank operation.

As for the straw poll effort being hurt, I don't think they will be. The straw poll is mainly a GOTV operation and these polls won't really affect that.

While at the Leadership Institute's Campaign Management School with Krippy we were told that, "The one thing polling IS NOT is a predictor. It's an indicator that should be used to help craft strategies."

Well said

 

[Billay]

If polls are an indicator then it should tell Ron to STFU about Bin Laden and Heroin. Stick to the finical issues.

 

[Inkblots]

Apparently, one cannot point out the obvious on this forum without getting neg repped. Good luck in y'all's endeavors, but I ain't hangin' around here much longer.

Well, I think most people around here appreciate constructive criticism. It helps us with our talking points, and, since folks from the campaign sometimes read the Forums, might filter up to Dr. Paul himself. So stick around!

 

[Michigan11]

If polls are an indicator then it should tell Ron to STFU about Bin Laden and Heroin. Stick to the finical issues.

LOL, it's funny when you read it like that and I think what he said is so far out there, that it stretched everyone's minds, into the outer universe for second. That is a tactic and I believe it works. For example when I sell my customers, one time I said to this lady who was paying cash, she asked me if I wanted all 20's.. I said what are you a drug dealer, others around laughed, and she had this shocked look on her face, and then later was so much nicer and easy to get along with, because her defenses were down, and it was all good. My employee at the time laughed out loud real loud, and said what in the hell did you say that for, and then I explained the reasoning to him, and a few weeks later he gets it, and notices that it works great.

 

[Inkblots]

If polls are an indicator then it should tell Ron to STFU about Bin Laden and Heroin. Stick to the finical issues.

That's good advice, but it can be hard to stop yourself when you know that you're right. I actually got sucked into debating hard drug legalization with a lady at a dinner party last weekend (I know, never talk politics or religion at a dinner party - but she brought it up!), and I basically went through and one by one destroyed all her arguments in favor the drug war. At the end, she admitted that she couldn't rebut my arguments, but in her gut she knew she was right. I think I mildly upset her, at that.

So that's a lesson for both Dr. Paul and myself: even if you have all the facts and logic on your side, for a lot of people, politics isn't about reason, it's about emotion. And just as I probably wasted an opportunity to promote Ron Paul to this lady by trying to educate her about the ill effects of prohibition, only to crash into an unthinking, emotional response, so Ron ends up wasting an opportunity to win GOP primary voters when, instead of talking about the deficit and the Constitution, he talks about issues like drug legalization and the War on Terror that provoke an emotional backlash among otherwise receptive voters.

 

[McBell]

If polls are an indicator then it should tell Ron to STFU about Bin Laden and Heroin. Stick to the finical issues.

You can't reply to questions about the drug war and Bin Laden with answers about debt and the Fed.

 

[Inkblots]

You can't reply to questions about the drug war and Bin Laden with answers about debt and the Fed.

Sure you can. rich34 gave a great example of that upthread.

 

[trey4sports]

You can't reply to questions about the drug war and Bin Laden with answers about debt and the Fed.

WTF?

....yes you can

 

[McBell]

People would jump on Ron if he did, though. He would be called two-faced and such for such a sudden change in style, and it wouldn't be entirely innacurate. People like Ron for different reasons than they like Rand, and they're going to notice if he suddenly starts talking like his son.

 

[sailingaway]

If polls are an indicator then it should tell Ron to STFU about Bin Laden and Heroin. Stick to the finical issues.

You do realize Ron never brought these subjects up, don't you? His marvelous debate questions, instead of being 'are you electable' were about heroin and prostitution and wouldn't bin laden still be alive if the government hadn't been in Afghanistan. He handled them well, but when he did they asked followups on heroin then moved to gay marraige

 

[sailingaway]

If polls are an indicator then it should tell Ron to STFU about Bin Laden and Heroin. Stick to the finical issues.

You do realize Ron never brought these subjects up, don't you? His marvelous debate questions, instead of being 'are you electable' were about heroin and prostitution and wouldn't bin laden still be alive if the government hadn't been in Afghanistan. He handled them well, but when he did they asked followups on heroin then moved to gay marraige

 

[trey4sports]

EDIT: double post, disregard

 

[trey4sports]

People would jump on Ron if he did, though. He would be called two-faced and such for such a sudden change in style, and it wouldn't be entirely innacurate. People like Ron for different reasons than they like Rand, and they're going to notice if he suddenly starts talking like his son.

no no, just point out how much it costs for us to run endless wars, and that the type of plan he advocated was the one that eventually got UBL. Same with the drug war, and the costs associated. Ron is who he is though, and the way he talks about issues is amazing, with that said its not the best way to win the election IMHO.

The % it turns off would be far smaller than the % that give him a second look.

 

[Billay]

You do realize Ron never brought these subjects up, don't you? His marvelous debate questions, instead of being 'are you electable' were about heroin and prostitution and wouldn't bin laden still be alive if the government hadn't been in Afghanistan. He handled them well, but when he did they asked followups on heroin then moved to gay marraige

Right it's always a conspiracy to get Ron Paul! How bout if he answers by saying "we have double digit unemployment and people losing everything because of the fed and you want to discuss silly things like heroin?" Thats all he would have to say instead he engages in a pretty useless debate.

 

[BUSHLIED]

Right it's always a conspiracy to get Ron Paul! How bout if he answers by saying "we have double digit unemployment and people losing everything because of the fed and you want to discuss silly things like heroin?" Thats all he would have to say instead he engages in a pretty useless debate.

You are exactly right, re-direct a bad question and answer the one you want them to ask...Ron gets sucked right in to these, it is only when the question is so absurd that he pushes back, like the FOX News question from Cameron last time around or when Huckabee challenged him on Iraq...

I think Ron needs to flex a little more at these debates!!

 

[driller80545]

I am sure that the general public did not appreciate RP's statements about drugs and OBL, but the main reason that I support him so adamantly is because he doesn't lie or gloss over any subject. He is not a slick talking politician and never will be. It is ironic that his blatant honesty is what most people mistrust. lol I think that his answers were perfect and that he should hold the line and not ever begin trying to tell the people only what they want to hear. That would make him too much like all the others IMHO.

 

[South Park Fan]

Right it's always a conspiracy to get Ron Paul! How bout if he answers by saying "we have double digit unemployment and people losing everything because of the fed and you want to discuss silly things like heroin?" Thats all he would have to say instead he engages in a pretty useless debate.

It's a catch-22, since then they could accuse him of dodging the question.

 

[White Bear Lake]

I am sure that the general public did not appreciate RP's statements about drugs and OBL, but the main reason that I support him so adamantly is because he doesn't lie or gloss over any subject. He is not a slick talking politician and never will be. It is ironic that his blatant honesty is what most people mistrust. lol I think that his answers were perfect and that he should hold the line and not ever begin trying to tell the people only what they want to hear. That would make him too much like all the others IMHO.

If blatant honesty and saying what you believe was what it took to win voters, Goldwater and McGovern would have been Presidents.

 

[BUSHLIED]

If blatant honesty and saying what you believe was what it took to win voters, Goldwater and McGovern would have been Presidents.

Yep, sadly it seems you must play the game, it is like a game of chess, you have to anticipate your opponents next couple of moves BEFORE you make your move...good politicians have an analytical mind and they can quickly anticipate where questioners are trying to take them...and smoothly redirect the topic...basically you have to be methodical and calculative...it's not easy. But no wonder why there are so many lawyers who become congressman, the skills of lawyers transfer well to the skills of a politician. Honesty is a great quality cause it builds trust but honestly can also ruin your credibility in today world of political correctness and multiculturalism...choose your words carefully!

 

[Bossobass]

Romney: "I love the Departments of Agriculture and Energy, and I especially LOVE Ethanol Subsidies".

Paul: "I would start with eliminating the Departments ...the Department of Agriculture... The Department of Energy... ".

Iowa Poll: 1st Place: Romney, last place: Paul.

RP is NEVER gonna win in Iowa... period.

Bosso