PPP Poll - Arizona GOP Presidential Primary / Ron Paul Tied for Second

[Sola_Fide]

Whoaaaaa!

Legalize heroin!

 

[specsaregood]

No, I honestly believe he has to make a quick commercial of his social security plan, showing people who paid in would get paid by reducing cost overseas and kids could opt out without hurting the program for those who paid in, as a result. I think the left and even freedom watch are scaring people saying he is ending it when many have paid in for 20-30 years.

Yes, it would be nice if he had some commercials ready to go the day he officially announces his candidacy.

 

[evilfunnystuff]

No, I honestly believe he has to make a quick commercial of his social security plan, showing people who paid in would get paid by reducing cost overseas and kids could opt out without hurting the program for those who paid in, as a result.

I like

 

[South Park Fan]

 

[PaulConventionWV]

From this we should conclude that wholly-logical campaign rhetoric is not the way to win. Soundbites, appearance, and general confidence are as important as content, if not more important.

Wait, how did you get that from that? That poll did not make me come to the same conclusion because I would have had to make some very risky assumptions about the nature of women vs. men, a.k.a. stereotyping. I'm not saying that's bad, but it's not really foolproof, to say the least.

 

[IndianaPolitico]

Awesome! The movement is growing. I think as long as the campaign can get it's message out, we have a good shot of winning!

 

[SilentBull]

Wow! And we're just getting started!

 

[SilentBull]

Trump and Palin are not running! What does this mean for Paul? 15%, 18%, 20%?? I can't wait to see the polls once they take the guys who are not running, out.

 

[Jordan]

Wait, how did you get that from that? That poll did not make me come to the same conclusion because I would have had to make some very risky assumptions about the nature of women vs. men, a.k.a. stereotyping. I'm not saying that's bad, but it's not really foolproof, to say the least.

How I got from here to there:

Ron has run a completely "logical" campaign for several years. There's the study.

During that time, he has failed on every occasion to attract women.

If women aren't willing to vote for him, there must be a reason. Women and men both get the same information about Ron Paul but come to different conclusions.

So maybe it might just be that what Ron says is registering with men, but not women. What Ron says is usually part of some non-linear idea he has in his head. When he gets asked about a specific issue, he doesn't give a solution. Instead, he takes forever and a day to describe how he gets to a specific answer. Pretty much like I'm doing right now.

Explaining yourself is fine, sure, but there's no reason to explain things when you aren't asked to. Men respond well to the thought-process of getting from here to there, and women see it as if the speaker is trying to convince them of something. I'm not saying that women aren't capable of using their brain, nor am I saying that women are stupid.

Go look at advertising in a male-oriented magazine and then go look at a female-oriented magazine and I bet you'll see that the sales process to convert each demographic into a sale is completely different.

 

[Jordan]

How about this:

Sports vs. Competitive Reality Shows

Men watch football, women watch reality shows like Dancing with the Stars. Not all, just generally.

Football game - You see all kinds of numbers, metrics, and tangible evaluations of each player, team, and how each is doing during and before the game. The announcers talk about strategy and how each team can exploit the weakness in the other team as if it were a science. Data from the game is passed on directly, often without conclusions.

Dancing with the Stars - No numbers. No strategy. Either the person dances well, or they don't. Winners aren't decided by points on the board; the winner is decided by popular vote. A good personality is just as important, if not more important, than actually dancing well. Data is translated from the "judges" to the audience.

 

[libertybrewcity]

400 is a pretty average sample size, definitely not "very small" it is good enough to provide +- 4.9%

No, 400 is a good sample size for a congressional district, not an entire state that will likely draw hundreds of thousands of voters. PPP has been accurate, but from a professional polling standpoint, 400 is small for an entire state. PPP just doesn't make money off of these, so they don't really need to do a larger sample.

 

[emr1028]

Trump and Palin are not running! What does this mean for Paul? 15%, 18%, 20%?? I can't wait to see the polls once they take the guys who are not running, out.

I think it's still possible that Palin, desperate for attention, will throw her hat into the race again. I think Trump took such a beating this past week that I think/hope he's gone.



lol

 

[R3volutionJedi]

This is good. 5% to 12%...
and keep in mind - our numbers grow daily.

 

[QueenB4Liberty]

That is good news!!

 

[specsaregood]

No, 400 is a good sample size for a congressional district, not an entire state that will likely draw hundreds of thousands of voters. PPP has been accurate, but from a professional polling standpoint, 400 is small for an entire state. PPP just doesn't make money off of these, so they don't really need to do a larger sample.

No. There were 541035 votes in the Republican primary in AZ in 2008. Assuming a similar number, 400 is the exact number of people needed to have a confidence interval of (+-4.9%) with a confidence level of 95% It is all math really. All adding more people will do is decrease the confidence interval, but the final numbers should remain in that +-4.9% range. sample size calculator

 

[pauladin]

hopefully huntsman will come into the race, gain a little steam, and start hacking away at romney's numbers.

 

[fatjohn]

This was also before the debate, wondering what that will do to the polls. Probably a cain bump, but I do not know what ron's numbers will do.

 

[S.Shorland]

Yes I agree with this.He can't appeal to women as sexy but he can keep their sons and daughters from being killed or mangled in undeclared wars and because of the savings from an end to militarism he can keep the old safe.

No, I honestly believe he has to make a quick commercial of his social security plan, showing people who paid in would get paid by reducing cost overseas and kids could opt out without hurting the program for those who paid in, as a result. I think the left and even freedom watch are scaring people saying he is ending it when many have paid in for 20-30 years.

 

[james1906]

He needs to appeal to emotion. Talking about his family life, his marriage of 50+ years and the family values he instilled in his children.

This. He needs to go after the evangelicals holding out hope for Huckabee.

 

[S.Shorland]

I think RP should 'say' the same things that Cain 'said' but back it up with 'What certain people are neglecting to remind you of is that I PREDICTED and warned of the collapse before it happened.Any reasonable person would conclude that my plan is most likely to set the economy right!'