Only 17.51% of RP supporters voted in Iowa. No wonder we were 5th. Learn from stats:

[tttar]

Unless I read the spreadsheet incorrectly, the turnout for all other candidates was 10%. We had 17%. We need to do much better to win, but this is about 70% or almost 3/4 better than turnout for the other candidates. Sure 17% sounds terrible but we need to keep things in perspective. If we did terrible, then how did the other candidates do?

If we can get this to just 25%, we'll start placing consistently in the top 3. If we get much higher, I can see us winning this thing but the emphasis has to be on getting current supporters out to vote.

EDIT: I just noticed this assumes that Paul's actual support was just 6% of the voting population. I thought we were more like 8 or 9%? If we were at 8%, then turnout was only 13% compared to 10% for the other candidates. If we were at 10%, then turnout was only 10% and no better than any other candidates. Its difficult to say if we did better than other candidates or not, it probably depends on which polling data you use.

Yeah, that's one thing I mentioned. It can be interpreted in different ways, exactly as you say. I think I made it so you can stay with the 6% at top (representing what I thought was the last official poll), or enter whatever you think the polls *should* have said there, and then come up with a different turnout %.

And you're right - it's annoying to think that there may have been higher "real" support, because that would have meant an even lower turnout.

I'm going to give this some more thought as soon as I have the time, seeing that I finally posted something here that wasn't a dud.

I hope I don't discover I was mistaken about something, and mislead everyone. I was in a rush, and almost didn't even write what I did, since I'd said something similar a few days earlier and just got a few yawns.

One big new lesson is that maybe instructions/exhortations for the primaries should accompany our advertising.

50% or so often show up in New Hampshire, because the people there have always been in the habit of voting in the primaries.

I think those in many other states just aren't "used to" the idea yet. But since we need 50% there, they'd better learn fast.

 

[Ozwest]

Unfortunately, this 21-year-old young fuck who has voted in all three major elections he has been eligible for is not in New Hampshire! Nor will he be in his home state on the 5th, when the primary is!

My absentee ballot is on the way, though.

GRUNT!

 

[Ozwest]

Wow, you've spent six hours sitting on the computer, posting the same message over and over again.

Why don't you get off the computer and go make a difference in the real world instead of verbally abusing people who already agree with you?

You sir are a hypocrite.

God damn, if it was only that easy to kick your ass!

 

[thisisgiparti]

I'll reserve judgment as to whether the young f*cks are in fact slack bastards until I hear how tttar divines that Ron Paul had 67,500 "supporters" in IA.

The now legendary "list" that the campaign lost only had ~17,000 supporters. If tttar knew about 50,000 more, maybe he should have been working for the campaign.

I heard the legendary list had 21,000 and that close to 17,000 actually turned out for RP.

 

[justatrey]

tttar, consider what others have said:

"The 6% polling number is from "likely Caucus goers", not the entire general population or even all registered voters. Your whole analysis is faulted by this fact."

I'm at work so I can't sit down and really think hard about this, but one question I have is what "VEP" is in the spreadsheet? It shows 2,250,000 total and 1,125,000 for Republicans. What do these numbers represent?

BTW, I really hope your numbers are right because they are, we have so much room to improve. Image if turnout was 90% and we still finished in 5th place. We would have no hope.

 

[tttar]

It's really over, isn't it?

Great thread, from the useless little shits.

How fu@king inspiring! Shove another John Wayne DVD into the player.

Man, you don't need to get crabby with the people here.

Their numbers are small, and I'm sure their participation rates are as high as can be.

I think the problem is that we need MILLIONS to show up in the primaries, and there are just not that many dedicated people out there, regardless of what they may tell the pollsters.

The people you're bitching at have mostly helped to at least bring Ron Paul to their attention.

Maybe a few dozen are from Iowa or New Hampshire. Just beating them harder won't help things any.

 

[gb13]

We need 80%!!! What the hell is wrong with people?

MORE LIKE 100%

Unless you have a death in the family, or something similarly catastrophic, YOU HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO EXCUSE NOT TO VOTE!!!!!

Take 30 minutes, go to the polling place, fill in the fucking ballot and CAST YOUR VOTE!

You lazy fucks who didn't, or wont vote, are going to cost us this election. You know who you are, and you should be fucking ASHAMED!!!

 

[scholarpreneur]

God damn, if it was only that easy to kick your ass!

The only ass you're kicking with you whiny, disrespectful language is Ron Paul's.

You're hurting, not helping.

 

[tttar]

Take your spreadsheet, and your sounds terrible statistics, and put some emphasis on placing consistently in the top 3 by getting supporters to:


Get off their asses and...



Go Fucking Vote!
​

Well, yeah, man - that sort of was the intent. I was trying to say we may already have enough people, but they need to actually show up.

You will even find that I used the words "get off their asses" in there, in a comment. We think alike.

What did you think my purpose was?

 

[Ozwest]

Wow, you've spent six hours sitting on the computer, posting the same message over and over again.

Why don't you get off the computer and go make a difference in the real world instead of verbally abusing people who already agree with you?

You sir are a hypocrite.

Yes, I have overstepped the mark, but sonny boy, don't explain the "real world" to me. Why don't you wake up everyone on your frickin street, and take care of business.?

Go fucking vote!
​

 

[Ozwest]

The only ass you're kicking with you whiny, disrespectful language is Ron Paul's.

You're hurting, not helping.

Go home. Mommies waiting.

 

[tttar]

Good Grief! Hasn't anybody noticed the importance of this posting?

Start a new thread. Someone ask Ron Paul himself about that. I'd like to get that issue sorted out also.

 

[kill the banks]

+1

I know from experience here in DC, the official campaign has been hostile to GOTV, refused to do it themselves, sabotaged the grassroots efforts we had been working on for months, and has substituted their flawed "precinct captain" approach instead. One of our volunteers here is not in that database (the former owners of the house is listed at his address).

They should be using the information from the grassroots identifying supporters and turning them out to vote. Instead we have control freak central planners succumbing to Hayek's fatal conceit thinking they know better than all of us combined with local knowledge. I don't think that HQ has even incorporated their own supporter database into their approach.

I did data requests from the DC Board of Elections and Ethics starting back at the beginning of the summer, laid out a plan that a group of volunteers had devised working together, and at the end of the day HQ tells everyone not to cooperate! The arrogance and incompetence of the official staffers astounds us.

i don't know what to think ... cooperate anyway ... grassroots take over & GET THE VOTE OUT !!! this isn't rocket science just organize this minute and DO IT !!!

& kill the banks

 

[Ozwest]

Man, you don't need to get crabby with the people here.

Their numbers are small, and I'm sure their participation rates are as high as can be.

I think the problem is that we need MILLIONS to show up in the primaries, and there are just not that many dedicated people out there, regardless of what they may tell the pollsters.

The people you're bitching at have mostly helped to at least bring Ron Paul to their attention.

Maybe a few dozen are from Iowa or New Hampshire. Just beating them harder won't help things any.

Sorry mate, If you want some loving- and - affection, you ain't getting diddly squat. Stop being a girly-boy, and bite on a fucking bullet, or somethimg...

 

[kill the banks]

REPEAT DO IT !!!!!!!!!

bradley get constructive and make calls , be true to GRASSROOTS is all i can say ! we are our own authority !

kill the banks

 

[blakjak]

The 17.51% of course isn't as precise as implied, but it can't be off by more than 1-2%.

It can't?

 

[tttar]

The 6% polling number is from "likely Caucus goers", not the entire general population or even all registered voters. Your whole analysis is faulted by this fact.

The only "analysis" done was me trying to estimate voter turnout for those who said they favored Ron Paul that is comparable to historical values for Republicans in general.

Someone else can probably do better, but no one had yet bothered, so now you're stuck with some dipshit who just did the best he could.

I knew we needed a greater percentage of participation, and I wanted to know how many participated, and how many we really needed.

Feed me some better stats I can use, and I might try it again.

But I don't think I was that far off. Obviously, not nearly enough came in the end.

 

[scholarpreneur]

Go home. Mommies waiting.

OK I will. Maybe you should too. Sounds like your mom didn't give you enough hugs when you were little or something.

 

[Ozwest]

Some of you idiots, are in Mitt Romney camp.

Call the Lawyers, call the Lawyers!

You don't have a clue.

 

[tttar]

God damn, if it was only that easy to kick your ass!

What the hell, man - I'm sure he'll vote. Why are you mad at him?