New York Primary April 19th

[MarcusI]

Only one primary today, but a very important one. Donald Trump has to show today in his homestate that he can reach the magic number of delegates before the National Convention. Recent congressional district and state conventions im many states (Louisiana, Georgia, SC, NC and others) have shown that a huge number of delegates bound to Trump on 1st ballot (some states: 2nd, 3rd) in the convention will be Cruz, Kasich or Rubio/Ryan supporters. Some speculate that even 50% of his delegates will not be his supporters. That means that it is "do or die" on 1st ballot for Trump. Maybe he can even win the 1st ballot with being like 20 or 30 short of the majority, as he could get some unbound delegates in his boat with some "bribery". But as soon as there is a 2nd ballot, im 99% sure Trump wont be the nominee and in order to prevent that he must get the magic number or at least come very, very short to it. Today in NY he is expected to win big and he has to. When you read the poll averages and the delegate allocation rules, it becomes pretty clear that 50% is the magic number for him tonight. Would he perform worse, it would cost him a lot of momentum - and delegates.

RCP Average (many polls were conducted the last days):
Trump 53.1%
Kasich 22.8%
Cruz 18.1%

(note: combined thats only 94.0% while its unlikely that 6% will vote for other candidates or uncommitted)

Delegate Allocation rules in short:
95 Delegates in total
- 14 At-large will be winner-take-all IF a candidate receives more than 50% of the votes statewide. In case that doesnt happen, they will be allocated proportional to all candidates above a 20% threshold
- 81 CD Delegates in 27 CDs (= 3 per CD) will be allocated almost the same way: A candidate with a majority (50%+) will get all 3 delegates, otherwise the frontrunner gets 2 and the runner-up 1.
- Delegates are bound for 1st ballot

The Rules in detail:
http://frontloading.blogspot.de/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-new.html

My estimation is that if Trump gets about 60% (thats what one "outlier poll" predicted) he would end up with ~85 delegates. If he receives 49% (the "outlier poll" on the other side) he might only get ~60 delegates. 25 delegates will surely make a difference, tight as the race to 1237 is. More important might even be the loss of momentum though.


-------

On the Democratic side, Sanders is way behind but had momentum the last month. And as its Clintons home state, all expectations lie on her. However, its very unlikely that Sanders can still reach the majority of bound delegates. But if, then he should overperform today.

RCP Average:

Clinton 53.1% (yes, exactly the same as Trump^^)
Sanders 41.4%

Delegate allocation: 291 delegates in total. Proportional for both the 84 at-large and the 163 CD delegates (no winner-take-all trigger at 50%) Districts have 5-7 delegates each. Then NY has 44 "super-delegates".

 

[CPUd]

fivethirtyeight projected Trump to get 75 delegates from NY, but has revised upward to 83-85 due to recent polling. I don't expect Cruz or Kasich to win any CD, but Cruz could come in 2nd in around 5 CDs and Kasich around 8-12 CDs where Trump is under 50% (they would get 1 delegate per CD in each those cases).

 

[jbauer]

The excitement certainly lies with the Bern on team Blue's side. It'll be interesting to see if that translates into votes or if the long past sign up period to vote in the Democrat primary sinks him finally.

On team Red. Everyone is trying to make sure Trump doesn't get to 1237. All I know is its going to be a zoo regardless of the delegate count.

 

[nikcers]

Daniel Tosh' stand up special came out a few days ago, the punchline is thanks Osama. He says thanks to Osama no one doesn't know that September is nine, he says he does it for other months to, so for august 9/11 minus 1.

 

[CPUd]

Harry Enten does a breakdown by CD here:

I have lived in New York my entire life, except for college. And on Tuesday, I’ll enjoy the first New York presidential primary in my adult lifetime that truly matters. The collision of my personal world and professional interests is an opportunity too good to pass up: What follows is a tour of New York’s political geography for the Republican primary, with a mix of personal observations and election forecasting.

First, let’s set the stage: Donald Trump is a very good bet to win New York’s Republican primary, according to our primary forecasts. Polls show Ted Cruz and John Kasich far behind and splitting about half the vote. But in addition to winning outright, Trump needs to extract as many delegates as possible from the state. New York awards 14 delegates proportionally based on the statewide results, with a 50 percent winner-take-all trigger, and Trump has a decent chance to win that entire pot. Another 81 delegates will be given out by congressional district — three per district. Win a district with a plurality, and you get two of those delegates, but win with a majority and you get all three. And there’s the rub: Whether New York gets Trump closer to the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the GOP nomination, or whether he falls further off pace, will likely come down to how many congressional districts he wins with at least 50 percent of the vote.

Let’s break the state down into six regions to see where Trump is likely to soar and where he may fall short.1 (My apologies in advance if this is a little Harry-centric.)

...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-york-primary-republican-2016-election/

 

[alucard13mm]

I am more interested with the democrat primary for NY. Socialist Bernie or WOMAN Hillary.

 

[dannno]

Daniel Tosh' stand up special came out a few days ago, the punchline is thanks Osama. He says thanks to Osama no one doesn't know that September is nine, he says he does it for other months to, so for august 9/11 minus 1.

Maybe he was talking about this?

 

[FindLiberty]

Trump is far too smart to take personal risks involved with attempting to actually save the rest of us from the evil puppet masters.

NY voters should do their part protecting him and just remain home toady. Wait to lick those boots another day, when it becomes popular!

NY election authorities even tried to help by purging names from voter registration lists (in some areas probably identified as pro Trump).

 

[ProBlue33]

The primary in New York is messed up, when Trumps own kids can't vote for their dad.
I don't agree with this, there should be a new national system in place for primaries, it should be straight out and easy.
I actually think people should be able to vote for either side in who you are most excited about, and it seems Sanders and Trump have that this time.
So you vote in the primaries who you think would be best for the country almost like a pre-election vote, it would stop people from catering to their base very early and run a general type election from the primaries on. I also think you would end up with better candidates on both sides with this system.

 

[FindLiberty]

Let the one who promises the most moist cheese win the race!
(goes into effect right after the Con Con held to write in all the new planks)

 

[CPUd]

The primary in New York is messed up, when Trumps own kids can't vote for their dad.
I don't agree with this, there should be a new national system in place for primaries, it should be straight out and easy.
I actually think people should be able to vote for either side in who you are most excited about, and it seems Sanders and Trump have that this time.
So you vote in the primaries who you think would be best for the country almost like a pre-election vote, it would stop people from catering to their base very early and run a general type election from the primaries on. I also think you would end up with better candidates on both sides with this system.

Primaries are a test for the rigors of the general election campaign, and the office itself. It would be very dangerous to streamline the process, which seems to be the direction it's heading; this allows a well-funded candidate to run an ad blitz unchallenged, while the grassroots candidates get about as much play as 3rd party candidates. Open primaries across the board would be even more dangerous, especially when there is an incumbent. If they're not voting in their own party, they can cross over and vote the weakest candidate to face in the general. Sorta like what's happening now, but expanded to all states.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Polls just closed and preliminary numbers starting to come in. Clinton- Sanders close at 52%- 48%. If Trump is over 50% in all the congressional districts he gets all 95 delegates. Cruz people saying they don't expect any delegates but hope Kasich is able to pick up some. Trump is weaker (below 50%) in some of the more rural areas.

Ryan Struyk ✔ ‎@ryanstruyk
The most important GOP exit poll numbers for Trump tonight:

NYC 52%
Long Island 67%
Hudson Valley 64%
Urban upstate 60%
Rural upstate 46%

That would project a finish of Trump 57, Kasich 25 and Cruz 17 on the GOP side, and Clinton 53, Sanders 47 for Democrats. The latter race is close enough that it isn’t safe to assume Clinton will win.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/

 

[CPUd]

Polls just closed and preliminary numbers starting to come in. Clinton- Sanders close at 52%- 48%. If Trump is over 50% in all the congressional districts he gets all 95 delegates. Cruz people saying they don't expect any delegates but hope Kasich is able to pick up some. Trump is weaker (below 50%) in some of the more rural areas.




http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/

Trump needs to get around 83 delegates to have a "good" night. The CD numbers are going to come in way late tonight, especially if they split across counties.

Cruz needs 5, Kasich around 12 to meet the 538 projections.

 

[CPUd]

New York County (Manhattan):

Republican

79.8% Reporting
J. Kasich 44.3% 7,755
D. Trump 42.6% 7,460
T. Cruz 13.0% 2,280
B. Carson 0.0%

I don't know whether to LOL at Kasich leading there or the fact the most densely populated area of the state has less than 20,000 GOP votes.

 

[timosman]

I don't know whether to LOL at Kasich leading there or the fact the most densely populated area of the state has less than 20,000 GOP votes.

A tough choice indeed.

 

[CPUd]

Democratic

49.1% Reporting

Delegates Allocated: 223/291

Delegates
Winner H. Clinton 59.5% 588,790 138
B. Sanders 40.5% 400,364 85


Sanders is going to get slaughtered, I thought this one would be closer.

 

[MarcusI]

Well you can spin it any way, but in the end this is a huge night for Trump. He didnt win anything, but he showed he can win this nomination.

47% in

Trump 61.7%
Kasich 24.0%
Cruz 14.3%

 

[euphemia]

My husband came home to say there were precincts that seemed to have *purged* their rolls of properly registered, active voters. Seems like it happened in largely minority precincts. I haven't seen or read a report, but I would guess it would be something that major media would bury.

 

[MarcusI]

Manhattan is the only "county" atm in which Trump is not leading.

Staten Island 92% in

Trump 82%
Kasich 10%
Cruz 8%

 

[MarcusI]

Sanders, in the end did as polls predicted (roughly), Trump did better than in the polls.