New Thursday Poll (PPP) shows Trump imploding...Rand decision premature?

[otherone]

Suspending a campaign is not the same as dropping out.

Cruz gets thrown out. Trump gets butthurt and quits. Rand UNsuspends. Rand v. Rubio.

 

[Unknownuser]

Suspending a campaign is not the same as dropping out.

They all suspend their campaigns. It's a legal thing. For paying off their debts.

 

[CPUd]

For Rand to actually "unsuspend" his campaign and be taken seriously, there would have to be tons of support from all factions of the party. On the same level the Dems were at trying to get Joe Biden to run. They even had an empty podium at their first debate, he could have walked right in.

 

[65fastback2+2]

For Rand to actually "unsuspend" his campaign and be taken seriously, there would have to be tons of support from all factions of the party. On the same level the Dems were at trying to get Joe Biden to run. They even had an empty podium at their first debate, he could have walked right in.

It would have to come down to like "Holy cow, its gonna be Gilmore vs. Hillary" lol

 

[invisible]

So Al Gore and Kerry were the fall guys against Bush?

Its a lot more likely that the Democratic elite and the Republican elite really aren't on the same team. Its almost a zero sum game for power between those interest groups and they really want one of their own in office. Its not just for influence and positions- though yeah those matter a lot too- but because many of them really do believe in what the candidates have to say. And as we've seen with Bernie 'I'm gonna lose to any decent Republican' Sanders, Donald 'Wow the Republicans will cease being a credible party if I win' Trump and Ted 'Everyone including the elite hates me' Cruz the establishment isn't nearly as powerful as it used to be.

See cfr, pnac, build-a-burger, trilateral commission, etc, etc. They are absolutely all on the same team, both democrats and Republicans.

 

[CPUd]

Gilmore has been moving up in the rankings though. He only got 12 votes in Iowa, but has gained 3 spots since Monday.

 

[CPUd]

GW and John Kerry were old frat bros.

 

[MarcusI]

Well its a bit sad that this poll is actually the first national one since late October that had Rand at 5%.

On the other hand:
- Even this poll didnt qualify him for the NH debate (and the deadline is today)
- He is polling in NH between 2 and 3%, worse than in Iowa
- In most SEC states he is polling between 1 and 2%

 

[Joeinmo]

PPP on Thursday will announce a new post-Iowa national poll showing:

Trump 25% (-9 from last PPP poll)
Cruz 21% (+3)
Rubio 21% (+8)

I believe the Trump act is starting to wear thin. He's imploding as short-attention-span-America tires of the novelty. This could be a two-man race in no time. (Clearly, the establishment/media is all-in for Rubio, as I predicted two years ago, and therefore he's the clear favorite.)

As such, Rand's voice could've been much more exposed much sooner than expected. I wish he had the stomach to continue with a bare-bones campaign and snag a spot as the 3rd or 4th wheel on future debate stages as the deck reshuffles and the field quickly whittles.

It's not about winning. It never was. It's about continuing to change the culture ("start brushfires") in a more libertarian direction, and a presence on that stage only fosters that. Winning follows.

Trump has got this thing, it's a done deal...it's over

 

[jkob]

Trump will have another bump if he wins New Hampshire where nobody is running close(all withstanding of course), the real prize is South Carolina. Marco Rubio now has his time in the spotlight, so the question is how well he can maintain it especially with other establishment candidates still in play in the early states. South Carolina will be huge, Trump has huge lead but Cruz and Rubio could be strong there plus there will be the question of how the race winnows from here. I think Rubio's spot as the establishment candidate still hasn't been secured, he'll have to finish 1st among them in New Hampshire where Bush, Kasich, and Christie are running hard.

 

[CPUd]

Well its a bit sad that this poll is actually the first national one since late October that had Rand at 5%.

On the other hand:
- Even this poll didnt qualify him for the NH debate (and the deadline is today)
- He is polling in NH between 2 and 3%, worse than in Iowa
- In most SEC states he is polling between 1 and 2%

If they use the last 5 polls on RCP as of now, I think it would actually have gotten him in the debate. Christie polled a 3.

 

[MarcusI]

If they use the last 5 polls on RCP as of now, I think it would actually have gotten him in the debate. Christie polled a 3.

Nope, because they use all the polls from Jan 1st on :/
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-...hampshire-republican-debate/story?id=36550263

Which would be: 6. Christie 3.2% 7. Paul 2.6%

 

[Jan2017]

Trump 25%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 21%

so statistically, a three way tie within margin of error, from polling of a few hundred landlines or other . . .

split the delegates through Super Tuesday and until the convention and then
going into the brokered convention a compromise candidate UNsuspends . . .

 

[Brett85]

It's weird that Rand polls at 5% in a national poll, the highest he's been in quite a while, right after he dropped out of the race. Perhaps he should've stayed in a little bit longer.

 

[otherone]

They are absolutely all on the same team, both democrats and Republicans.

YUP.
GO STATE!!!!!!!!

 

[nobody's_hero]

My prediction. Rubio will win nomination and most likely be our next president.

Republican neoconservatives will not win again. Democrat neoconservatives will.

The GOP has yet to accept that neoconservatism died in 2008 as a viable presidential choice (in large part, thanks to Ron Paul), but damned if they won't stick around as long as possible to fuck things up for the rest of us in the primary phase.

When it comes down to the general election, America is too war weary to put a neoconservative republican in the white house ever again, but they will vote for a Democrat neoconservative who campaigns on ending wars but actually expands them. "What? Obama lied to us? Well, there must be a good reason, I'm sure."

 

[Chieppa1]

Cruz gets thrown out. Trump gets butthurt and quits. Rand UNsuspends. Rand v. Rubio.

Trump is secret billionaire. BOOM.

Yes, I'm trolling at this point.

 

[rich34]

Like nikcers said... he checks ALL the boxes.

He does? What kind of duel meaning are you implying lol.

 

[gee_blee]

It's weird that Rand polls at 5% in a national poll, the highest he's been in quite a while, right after he dropped out of the race. Perhaps he should've stayed in a little bit longer.

It's the first national poll since the last debate (Rand's best?) and of course since Iowa.

Of course no one here knows the complete backstory, but I think Rand should've waited until later today to see if he'd qualify for the debate. There could be more polls in his favor released today and, even if not, it would be patently unfair for ABC to exclude Rand after being 5th in the one national poll (their criteria) conducted since Iowa, where Rand was 5th.

It couldn't have hurt to wait 36 hours. Possibly being in this next debate, with its 15 million pair of eyeballs, would've been worth it. And if they excluded him, he could've then suspended and included in his statement a powerful indictment of the RNC/media for marginalizing his campaign with two recent debate exclusions.

 

[gee_blee]

Nope, because they use all the polls from Jan 1st on :/
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-...hampshire-republican-debate/story?id=36550263

Which would be: 6. Christie 3.2% 7. Paul 2.6%

They don't necessarily use all the polls from Jan 1 on - it clearly states "those polls recognized by ABC." If no more polls get released today, it would've looked very corrupt if Rand was excluded after finishing 6th (ahead of one other on that debate stage; tied with another) in the one national poll conducted since the last debate and after placing 5th in Iowa (ahead of three others on that debate stage).