New Politico poll shows Biden leading Sanders, beating Trump by 8 points

[Superfluous Man]

So? When the leftest of the leftists are polled Trump is STILL in the running.

You say that as if the left would not naturally be inclined to support Trump.

 

[ATruepatriot]

You say that as if the left would not naturally be inclined to support Trump.

That is exactly what I am saying and stating as fact by example... lol

 

[Superfluous Man]

That is exactly what I am saying and stating as fact by example... lol

It's good that this poll helped correct that misconception.

 

[RJB]

It is way too early. Trump was the last candidate anyone expected. Same with Romney and McCain. We will get some weirdo no one was expecting by the time of the convention. Voters sway like willows before the hot air of the MSM.

 

[ATruepatriot]

It's good that this poll helped correct that misconception.

Once again the poll is a lie and manipulated. If a liberal claims they might vote for Trump they are outright deceptive liars.

 

[Superfluous Man]

If a liberal claims they might vote for Trump they are outright deceptive liars.

Trump is president right now partly because a whole bunch of liberals voted for him in 2016.

 

[ATruepatriot]

Trump is president right now partly because a whole bunch of liberals voted for him in 2016.

I don't think so... Independents who normally vote left switched right, and Libertarians who jumped off the "purism" ship. Both in fear of the very real communist agenda option. The left voted left, example the popular vote.

 

[Superfluous Man]

Spot on... And of all people we should know how this polling works from Ron Paul's runs.

Morning Consult/Politico Poll Showing Biden +8 Over Trump Is Suspect, Just Look At Who Responded

The poll released yesterday by Morning Consult/Politico shows former Vice President Joe Biden with an 8 point lead over Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. To many that is shocking because the president’s approval rating and numbers have been quite high at this point in his presidency, even higher than Barack Obamas during the first 2 years.

However, if you dig below the surface of the polling data, the reason for this anomoly becomes starkly clear. The poll shows this big of a lead because most polled were Democrats.

See the data below taken from the Morning Consult polling data publicly released.

The poll shows widespread support among women for Biden; of course it does, because Dem women were the biggest group polled.

The poll shows an obvious overrepresentation of those who voted Democrat in the last election.

As the 2020 election season heats up, beware of polling that has an agenda.

https://creativedestructionmedia.co...-trump-is-suspect-just-look-at-who-responded/

You may be right about the poll stacking the deck with unrepresentative samplings of those groups. But it may not be as egregious as it looks.

A good poll should have a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans because nationwide, in states with party registration, 40% of voters are registered Democrats and only 29% are registered Republicans. And I suspect that among women, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by an even larger margin.

Likewise, having a polling sample with 36% who voted for Hillary in 2016 and 33% who voted for Trump in 2016 isn't that far off either. In the popular vote, Hillary beat Trump by 2%.

The poll says it has a margin of error of 2%, and that may well be the case. It seems to me that most of the time, polls are pretty accurate when allowance is made for the margin of error. There are some exceptions. But even then, they tend not to be as bad as those who never trust them seem to think.

The polls during Ron Paul's runs turned out not to be too far off, like it or not. And the polls that showed Hillary beating Trump turned out not to be too far off either. Some were worse than others. And it's the worst ones that people pick out to be examples of how bad polls are, neglecting to notice all the better ones.

 

[Superfluous Man]

I don't think so... Independents who normally vote left switched right

They may have voted for Trump over Hillary, but that could hardly be considered switching right.

 

[ATruepatriot]

They may have voted for Trump over Hillary, but that could hardly be considered switching right.

I absolutely agree. This election was quite unique in that aspect.

 

[ATruepatriot]

You may be right about the poll stacking the deck with unrepresentative samplings of those groups. But it may not be as egregious as it looks.

A good poll should have a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans because nationwide, in states with party registration, 40% of voters are registered Democrats and only 29% are registered Republicans. And I suspect that among women, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by an even larger margin.

Likewise, having a polling sample with 36% who voted for Hillary in 2016 and 33% who voted for Trump in 2016 isn't that far off either. In the popular vote, Hillary beat Trump by 2%.

The poll says it has a margin of error of 2%, and that may well be the case. It seems to me that most of the time, polls are pretty accurate when allowance is made for the margin of error. There are some exceptions. But even then, they tend not to be as bad as those who never trust them seem to think.

The polls during Ron Paul's runs turned out not to be too far off, like it or not. And the polls that showed Hillary beating Trump turned out not to be too far off either. Some were worse than others. And it's the worst ones that people pick out to be examples of how bad polls are, neglecting to notice all the better ones.

They didn't even include any males or conservatives in this poll, how could it even be close to representative of the election outcome? lol

As for accuracy with Ron's polls, they didn't even list his name in 8 out of 10 polls put up. We had to go slam them in mass and vote for "other" so they would take them down. lol

Fun days...

 

[nikcers]

Trump won because he campaigned on a better foreign policy. Trump probably would get every anti Obama voter if Biden was the nominee. The only better option would be if it was Obama himself.

 

[Superfluous Man]

They didn't even include any males or conservatives in this poll

Yes they did. Among those who classified themselves, there were 680 who identified as conservative, versus on 635 who identified as liberal, and 463 who identified as moderate.

There were 932 men and 1060 women. So the fact that women did outnumber men is noteworthy, I think. But again, this is not far off from reality, since significantly more women than men vote.

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/190452_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1.pdf

 

[Superfluous Man]

As for accuracy with Ron's polls, they didn't even list his name in 8 out of 10 polls put up. We had to go slam them in mass and vote for "other" so they would take them down.

If you're talking about online polls, then sure, those are totally useless. But that's not what this is.

 

[Anti Globalist]

It is way too early. Trump was the last candidate anyone expected. Same with Romney and McCain. We will get some weirdo no one was expecting by the time of the convention. Voters sway like willows before the hot air of the MSM.

If thats the case then I can totally see Buttigieg being that weirdo.

 

[nikcers]

If you're talking about online polls, then sure, those are totally useless. But that's not what this is.

How is this any different than the polls that said Clinton would win by 8 pt lead?

 

[ATruepatriot]

Trump won because he campaigned on a better foreign policy. Trump probably would get every anti Obama voter if Biden was the nominee. The only better option would be if it was Obama himself.

Know what I think... I think this nation was presented with a very clear and simple choice with all other issues completely aside, Turn communist or not turn communist. there was no gray area or wiggle room on this fact. And we are headed right back into the very same real choice again. Communism or not communism.

 

[nikcers]

Know what I think... I think this nation was presented with a very clear and simple choice with all other issues completely aside, Turn communist or not turn communist. there was no gray area or wiggle room on this fact. And we are headed right back into the very same real choice again. Communism or not communism.

Trump ran on a pretty anti Obama platform. You remember when he started it all with the birth certificate conspiracy theory?

 

[Dr.3D]

If thats the case then I can totally see Buttigieg being that weirdo.

Sort of like that surge of Santorum?

 

[Superfluous Man]

How is this any different than the polls that said Clinton would win by 8 pt lead?

Perhaps it's not different. But you can't just assume that this is a bad poll just because you've seen other bad polls. Most polls are pretty good. Most polls for the 2016 presidential election showed a slight edge in popular support for Hillary over Trump (nowhere near 8%) that was within the margin of error of the actual popular vote results. How is this one any different than all those?