New Poll Minus Huckabee: Ron Paul in Fifth Place at 5%; Gary Johnson Below 1%

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://suffolk.edu/46652.html

In the GOP primary, Romney’s 20 percent was followed by Sarah Palin (12 percent), Newt Gingrich (9 percent), Rudy Giuliani (7 percent), Ron Paul (5 percent), Michele Bachmann (4 percent), Herman Cain (4 percent), Mitch Daniels (4 percent), Tim Pawlenty (3 percent) and Rick Santorum (3 percent), with 20 percent undecided. Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer all received less than 1 percent.

 

[dannno]

But Herman Cain won the debate!!

 

[LibertyEagle]

Dr. Paul had better get his talking points down or I fear he is going to sink some more.

 

[Thargok]

Very accurate pollster there.

http://www.suffolk.edu/38934.html

 

[Thomas]

Dr. Paul had better get his talking points down or I fear he is going to sink some more.

the entire campaign will sink

 

[TheTyke]

Very accurate pollster there.

http://www.suffolk.edu/38934.html

A great point. I wonder if they view Gov. Corzine as a threat if he ran for president?

 

[Paulatized]

Why was Rudy Giuliani in this poll? Not that RP would have got any of his votes, but just wondering?

 

[FiannaPaul]

Look on the bright side, Giuliani is not running, Palin is not running, that puts him in third. A lot of the Palin vote will come our way.

This time in the last campaign we were less than 1%

 

[Paulatized]

Look on the bright side, Giuliani is not running, Palin is not running, that puts him in third. A lot of the Palin vote will come our way.

My prediction: Bachmann's in and Palin will throw her support toward her, and Huckabee's support will go that way. Top 2 contenders:
Romney, Bachmann. Establishment vs tea party

 

[sailingaway]

I never heard of that polling company, though and have no idea how accurate they are. I need to see some polling company I can measure against prior polls. Also, unfortunately, it may take a month for the hits on drugs and bin laden and the CRA to cycle through so people who are willing to look know what he actually said.

 

[sailingaway]

My prediction: Bachmann's in and Palin will throw her support toward her, and Huckabee's support will go that way. Top 2 contenders:
Romney, Bachmann. Establishment vs tea party

I think the establishment is bolstering either Cain or Bachmann as the tea party alternative. They consider them more controlable. I think Bachmann is the better of the two, they seem to like Cain better. But they DON'T like Ron.

I am concerned Palin may throw her support to Bachmann, but she might just stay out and mention 'principles' she thinks candidates can have... at least until she sees who catches on. We'll see.

 

[rp08orbust]

I think the establishment is bolstering either Cain or Bachmann as the tea party alternative. They consider them more controlable. I think Bachmann is the better of the two, they seem to like Cain better. But they DON'T like Ron.

I am concerned Palin may throw her support to Bachmann, but she might just stay out and mention 'principles' she thinks candidates can have... at least until she sees who catches on. We'll see.

I don't think Sarah Palin wants to back a loser, so I'm guessing she'll wait until after the Ames straw poll to make an endorsement, if at all. Hopefully Ron's victory over Cain and Bachmann is so decisive that a "Tea Party" endorsement of those two losers would look silly for so obviously skipping over Ron Paul.

 

[sailingaway]

I don't think Sarah Palin wants to back a loser, so I'm guessing she'll wait until after the Ames straw poll to make an endorsement, if at all. Hopefully Ron's victory over Cain and Bachmann is so decisive that a "Tea Party" endorsement of those two losers would look silly for so obviously skipping over Ron Paul.

Bachmann already has a machine started in Iowa, one of the central c'ee members is her guy. If she comes in Iowa will be her big push. She was born there, and polls well there (comparatively.)

 

[t0rnado]

Suffolk University is a joke of an institution. A 5 year old could conduct better polls.

 

[mport1]

Dr. Paul had better get his talking points down or I fear he is going to sink some more.

Yes, he needs to spend some of those millions on some speech coaches. It would be by far the best use of money. Rand could also teach him a thing or two for free.

 

[rp08orbust]

Speaking of endorsements and Rand, when and how should Rand endorse Ron?

 

[tsai3904]

Did anyone look at the actual poll results and methodology?

http://suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.Suffolk.University.National.Survey.Marginals.May.17.2011.pdf (pdf warning)

The poll was conducted May 10-17. Huckabee and Trump didn't drop out til May 14 and May 16. Suffolk called back the 92 people who initially chose Huckabee and Trump and asked who their second choice would be and only 51 responded. Then, they consolidated the numbers and this was their result (page 4 of pdf):

Romney – 20%
Palin – 12%
Gingrich – 9%
Huckabee – 8%
Giuliani – 7%
Paul – 5%
Bachmann – 4%
Cain – 4%
Daniels – 4%
Pawlenty – 3%
Santorum – 3%
Trump – 1%

Their final result still includes Huckabee and Trump. Please don't place too much weight into this poll.

 

[rp08orbust]

Did anyone look at the actual poll results and methodology?

http://suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.Suffolk.University.National.Survey.Marginals.May.17.2011.pdf (pdf warning)

The poll was conducted May 10-17. Huckabee and Trump didn't drop out til May 14 and May 16. Suffolk called back the 92 people who initially chose Huckabee and Trump and asked who their second choice would be and only 51 responded. Then, they consolidated the numbers and this was their result (page 4 of pdf):

Romney – 20%
Palin – 12%
Gingrich – 9%
Huckabee – 8%
Giuliani – 7%
Paul – 5%
Bachmann – 4%
Cain – 4%
Daniels – 4%
Pawlenty – 3%
Santorum – 3%
Trump – 1%

Their final result still includes Huckabee and Trump. Please don't place too much weight into this poll.

rep++

I downloaded the PDF myself and quickly became overwhelmed with the amount of data. I'm glad someone read through the thing and actually figured out what was going on!

Edit: The Huckabee results make sense according to your explanation, but why is Trump's percentage so low?

 

[Thargok]

They seem to have an accuracy problem based on their historic outcomes. I didn't have time to read the questions but I assume this is a result of a research/statistical methods class and not necessarily an experienced pollster (because it is academic) which might lead to mild question bias and give odd results. Also the order of the questions can have a similar result.

 

[tsai3904]

The Huckabee results make sense according to your explanation, but why is Trump's percentage so low?

Of the 92 people who initially chose Huckabee and Trump, only 51 responded to give their second choice. That left 41 people still choosing Huckabee and Trump, 36 for Huckabee and 5 for Trump. That's how they arrive at 8% for Huckabee and 1% for Trump.