New Poll Minus Huckabee: Ron Paul in Fifth Place at 5%; Gary Johnson Below 1%

[Johncjackson]

Bachmann is a loose cannon who shoots off her mouth without thinking (or maybe she is thinking and still says stupid things, which is even worse). Sarah Palin, clueless as she is, looks like an elder statesman compared to Bachmann. If she runs she will shoot herself in the foot very quickly.

If Bachmann is the only contender to Romney, you may as well just hand Romney the nomination.

I'd like to think a more rational contender might challenge Romeny, especially Ron Paul (though, frankly, almost any of the potential contenders is more rational than Bachmann).

Good point. Bachmann seems like a weaker version of Palin to me- even more gaffe prone. And Palin already has a lot of negatives herself.

 

[trey4sports]

The key is bringing Romneys neg's upward and making sure Bachmann doesn't bring in the so-cons

 

[pacelli]

Dr. Paul had better get his talking points down or I fear he is going to sink some more.

Agreed. No more educational campaigns. Run to win.

 

[Galileo Galilei]

http://suffolk.edu/46652.html

If you look at the favorables and unfavorables, Ron is basically the 2nd best candidate. Romney has a modest lead over him. Newt and Pawlenty are arguably near Ron in popularity and the others are well behind. At this stage, favorables and unfavorables are more predictive.

Here are the main reason why Ron's poll numbers fall below his favorables:

1) a lot of peopel have been told Ron can't win. That impression gets changed by winning the Iowa straw poll.

2) to many, Ron does not look "presidential". That get fixed by millions of dollars of patriotic TV ads portraying Ron as an executive leader.

 

[Jeremy]

Both Rudy and Sarah likely won't run, so the poll is a waste.

 

[Ex Lux lucis]

If accurate, this is perturbing.

 

[Cleaner44]

But Herman Cain won the debate!!

I noticed that too.

 

[sunghoko]

Bachmann is a loose cannon who shoots off her mouth without thinking (or maybe she is thinking and still says stupid things, which is even worse). Sarah Palin, clueless as she is, looks like an elder statesman compared to Bachmann. If she runs she will shoot herself in the foot very quickly.

If Bachmann is the only contender to Romney, you may as well just hand Romney the nomination.

I'd like to think a more rational contender might challenge Romeny, especially Ron Paul (though, frankly, almost any of the potential contenders is more rational than Bachmann).

I totally agree. Bachmann is a windsock and a total noob. The woman can't think for herself and when she does she gaffs. I hate the fact that people are overlooking RP's 30+ years of congressional service in favor of getting the next maverick. Makes me want to puke

 

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

This poll doesn't say very much. Why did they even put Giuliani in there? He's not a potential candidate.

 

[The Moravian]

Of the 92 people who initially chose Huckabee and Trump, only 51 responded to give their second choice. That left 41 people still choosing Huckabee and Trump, 36 for Huckabee and 5 for Trump. That's how they arrive at 8% for Huckabee and 1% for Trump.

I noticed the 92 and 51 discrepancy, too. Your accounting for the 41 left over is mathematically exact, but why are they sticking with their "first choice"?

After it becomes clear that Huck and Trump will not run, their supporters will either pick someone else or not participate, unless they are die-hard fans regardless of anything else.

Overall, I would not consider this poll to be "the first poll without Trump and Huckabee" because it clearly was taken during the time they announced their withdrawals, making it an unclear measure of support.

 

[tsai3904]

I noticed the 92 and 51 discrepancy, too. Your accounting for the 41 left over is mathematically exact, but why are they sticking with their "first choice"?

After it becomes clear that Huck and Trump will not run, their supporters will either pick someone else or not participate, unless they are die-hard fans regardless of anything else.

Overall, I would not consider this poll to be "the first poll without Trump and Huckabee" because it clearly was taken during the time they announced their withdrawals, making it an unclear measure of support.

They're not sticking with their first choice. I think the polling company just couldn't reach those 41 voters. If they call back a second time, it's unlikely that the same voter will be home to pick up the call or they might just decide not to participate again.

 

[rich34]

http://suffolk.edu/46652.html

Don't ya find it ironic that it seems like every single poll coming out is all over the map? I mean literally. One poll showing Cain in 2nd, Ron in 3rd, and this one the totally opposite??? Once again, this is going to have to be a word of mouth campaign. The media and the polling firms will do anything to distort the truth.

I still think Rand would wipe the slate clean with all these chumps. I love Ron and he's the most honest politician there is, but Rand answers the questions in non controversial ways that the media and the PTB can't so easily distort. At the same time I'm not sure Rand would have as strong as of a grassroots campaign as Ron would, but then again, Rand really reaches those teocons WAY better than Ron does. We know where Rand really stands on the issues, but the way he answers those questions the teocons seem to like it where as Ron they don't..