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WATCHLatest Poll Shows Trump, Clinton in Statistical Tie
Trump Leads Clinton by 1 Point in New Poll as Enthusiasm Declines
By GARY LANGER
Nov 1, 2016, 7:00 AM ET
Email
Star
PHOTO: Hillary Clinton in Manchester, New Hampshire, left and Donald Trump in St. Augustine, Forida, Oct. 24, 2016. PlayClinton;CJ Gunther/EPA; Trump; Evan Vucci/AP Photo
WATCH Latest Poll Shows Trump, Clinton in Statistical Tie
Strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation.
While vote preferences have held essentially steady, she’s now a slim point behind Donald Trump -- a first since May -- in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.
Forty-six percent of likely voters support Trump in the latest results, with 45 percent for Clinton. Taking it to the decimal for illustrative purposes, a mere .7 of a percentage point divides them. Third-party candidate Gary Johnson has 3 percent, a new low; Jill Stein, 2 percent.
See PDF with full results here.
Trump now leads Clinton by 8 points in the share of voters who are very enthusiastic about their choice as of Friday. But, compared to past elections it’s low for both of them –- 53 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Clinton.
Strong enthusiasm for Clinton has lost 7 points since the start of tracking, especially Friday through Sunday. This is possibly an after-effect of the renewed controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Trump’s strong enthusiasm has held steady in tracking, which started Oct. 20.
Close
The 1-point Clinton-Trump race overall is well within the survey’s margin of sampling error. Combining the last seven nights –- across which results have been very stable –- the results flip to 46-45 percent, Clinton-Trump, with .4 percentage point gap. Again, it is not a significant difference.
Either way, the results are exceedingly close. Trump’s +1 is a noteworthy result; he’s led Clinton numerically just once before, +2 in late May (among registered voters in a two-way test), after he clinched the GOP nomination while Clinton was still in a duel with Bernie Sanders in the Democratic race.
Although the election is close at this point, vote preference results a week out are not necessarily predictive of the final result. Mitt Romney was +1 vs. Barack Obama in comparable tracking poll results in 2012, for example, and John Kerry was +1 vs. George Bush a week out in 2004.
Red/Blue
Another look at the data divides the last seven nights of tracking results into red, blue and toss-up states, as designated by the ABC News Political Unit. The results:
• In states considered to be strongly for Trump or leaning toward him (with a total of 180 electoral college votes), he leads Clinton by a broad 60-34 percent.
• In blue states (with 278 electoral votes), Clinton leads 54-37 percent.
• In the five ABC-designated toss-up states (with 80 electoral votes) -- Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah -- voters split 41 percent Clinton to 48 percent Trump. That’s not a significant difference given the 5.5-point error margin at this sample size.
Early Birds
Clinton’s support rests in part on early voting: A fifth of those identified as likely voters (21 percent) say they’ve in fact already voted. While the sample isn’t large (thus an error margin of +/-7 percentage points), they divide by 55-39 percent, Clinton-Trump.
That said, early voting estimates can change given state-level rules, turnout and sampling variability. Early voting estimates in the 2012 ABC/Post tracking poll ranged from +17 for Obama to +4 for Romney in four-night averages, settling at +3 for Obama.
The latest results, while steady for seven nights, reflect a sharp turnaround from a large Clinton lead in the first four nights of tracking, which were a particularly difficult news cycle for Trump.
Among other factors, there’s been consolidation for Trump among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (86 percent now back him, up from 80 percent). He has also seen improvement among pure independents (i.e., those who don’t lean toward either party), up from an even split to a large Trump advantage, 25 percent Clinton to 54 percent Trump, across the past seven nights (combined for a larger samples size). Seventeen percent of pure independents pick someone else.
Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, meanwhile, Trump’s support has gone from 5 to 9 percent -- a slight change, but a statistically significant one. Clinton’s support has been essentially steady.
ABC News
LOG IN
WATCHLatest Poll Shows Trump, Clinton in Statistical Tie
Trump Leads Clinton by 1 Point in New Poll as Enthusiasm Declines
By GARY LANGER
Nov 1, 2016, 7:00 AM ET
Star
PHOTO: Hillary Clinton in Manchester, New Hampshire, left and Donald Trump in St. Augustine, Forida, Oct. 24, 2016. PlayClinton;CJ Gunther/EPA; Trump; Evan Vucci/AP Photo
WATCH Latest Poll Shows Trump, Clinton in Statistical Tie
Strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation.
While vote preferences have held essentially steady, she’s now a slim point behind Donald Trump -- a first since May -- in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.
Forty-six percent of likely voters support Trump in the latest results, with 45 percent for Clinton. Taking it to the decimal for illustrative purposes, a mere .7 of a percentage point divides them. Third-party candidate Gary Johnson has 3 percent, a new low; Jill Stein, 2 percent.
See PDF with full results here.
Trump now leads Clinton by 8 points in the share of voters who are very enthusiastic about their choice as of Friday. But, compared to past elections it’s low for both of them –- 53 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Clinton.
Strong enthusiasm for Clinton has lost 7 points since the start of tracking, especially Friday through Sunday. This is possibly an after-effect of the renewed controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Trump’s strong enthusiasm has held steady in tracking, which started Oct. 20.
Close
The 1-point Clinton-Trump race overall is well within the survey’s margin of sampling error. Combining the last seven nights –- across which results have been very stable –- the results flip to 46-45 percent, Clinton-Trump, with .4 percentage point gap. Again, it is not a significant difference.
Either way, the results are exceedingly close. Trump’s +1 is a noteworthy result; he’s led Clinton numerically just once before, +2 in late May (among registered voters in a two-way test), after he clinched the GOP nomination while Clinton was still in a duel with Bernie Sanders in the Democratic race.
Although the election is close at this point, vote preference results a week out are not necessarily predictive of the final result. Mitt Romney was +1 vs. Barack Obama in comparable tracking poll results in 2012, for example, and John Kerry was +1 vs. George Bush a week out in 2004.
Red/Blue
Another look at the data divides the last seven nights of tracking results into red, blue and toss-up states, as designated by the ABC News Political Unit. The results:
• In states considered to be strongly for Trump or leaning toward him (with a total of 180 electoral college votes), he leads Clinton by a broad 60-34 percent.
• In blue states (with 278 electoral votes), Clinton leads 54-37 percent.
• In the five ABC-designated toss-up states (with 80 electoral votes) -- Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah -- voters split 41 percent Clinton to 48 percent Trump. That’s not a significant difference given the 5.5-point error margin at this sample size.
Early Birds
Clinton’s support rests in part on early voting: A fifth of those identified as likely voters (21 percent) say they’ve in fact already voted. While the sample isn’t large (thus an error margin of +/-7 percentage points), they divide by 55-39 percent, Clinton-Trump.
That said, early voting estimates can change given state-level rules, turnout and sampling variability. Early voting estimates in the 2012 ABC/Post tracking poll ranged from +17 for Obama to +4 for Romney in four-night averages, settling at +3 for Obama.
The latest results, while steady for seven nights, reflect a sharp turnaround from a large Clinton lead in the first four nights of tracking, which were a particularly difficult news cycle for Trump.
Among other factors, there’s been consolidation for Trump among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (86 percent now back him, up from 80 percent). He has also seen improvement among pure independents (i.e., those who don’t lean toward either party), up from an even split to a large Trump advantage, 25 percent Clinton to 54 percent Trump, across the past seven nights (combined for a larger samples size). Seventeen percent of pure independents pick someone else.
Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, meanwhile, Trump’s support has gone from 5 to 9 percent -- a slight change, but a statistically significant one. Clinton’s support has been essentially steady.
