New monmouth Iowa caucus poll. Rand at 3%, yet another example of a "bad" poll. Here's why

[kbs021]

New monmouth Iowa caucus poll. Rand at 3%, yet another example of a "bad" poll. Here's why

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/85775b52-ec99-4ad3-bbee-14826bdf86e5.pdf

The new monmouth poll has Trump and Carson tied at 23 percent with Paul way in the back with 3 percent. Why shouldn't you freak out? Once again, like with many of these polls, the demographics are no where near what they will be come election day. We are still 5 months from the caucus, however, things aren't that bad now.

The poll DRASTICALLY under cuts young voters. In 2012, 17-29 year olds made up 15% percent of the vote. With school in session this year during the caucus this total should go up some. This poll had young voters aged 18-34 at a laughable 8%... That is a joke. It also over estimates 65+ voters by over than 10%.

If that wasn't bad enough, this poll was taken only among registered republicans... Independent voters made up almost 25 percent of all voters in 2012. Ron Paul got about half of all independent voters AND young voters. So this poll neglects Rand's best 2 demographics.

We do need to get better. There are some bad signs in this poll such as Ben Carson's favorability rating, our percentage among republicans, etc. I am not saying Rand is leading in Iowa.. I am not saying this poll isn't useful.. However, Rand is not at 3 percent in Iowa.. Let's be real. Rand's goal of 10,000 students voting for Rand in this next election as well as his appeal to independents is going to propel him above polls like this. Step up, make calls, donate when you can, and continue the fight. Thanks for your time.

 

[Mr.NoSmile]

If Paul wants to win a general, as we've said, he'll need to extend his range far beyond the youth, but those actually well entrenched with his party and show up on a regular basis to vote.

 

[squirl22]

I wonder who pays for those Monmouth polls. They seem intent on driving Rand out of the race...who pays for the poll gets the results they want.

 

[Arpmoog]

Fox will be sure to use this poll to further the blackout and sway the low info voters.
Sadly Amerika will be destroyed before the people get their heads out of their collective asses.

 

[satchelmcqueen]

its just so "odd" that rand was the top man before the first debate......ty msm and your shitty polls.

 

[Jan2017]

Walker 22% in July, now in August after the first debate he is at 7 %

 

[Matt McGuire]

Walker 22% in July, now in August after the first debate he is at 7 %

Just as predicted here at RPF a few months ago

 

[Uriah]

Despite all of these polls showing 3-5% I've felt the pulse in Iowa and Rand has about 10% of people that will caucus. It really hasn't moved in my opinion over the last several months. He has lost some support to Cruz with some liberty types and Carson has some appeal to more christian conservatives associated with the liberty movement but he has gained some(small) traction with moderates in the state. Things will start to move around a bit with regard to polling after the Sept. 16th debate and things will really intensify around the holidays heading into the new year. This is a long slog.

 

[LibertyEagle]

Good to hear, Uriah.

 

[Liberty74]

Listen, there is NOT going to be this big voting bloc of students just because college will be in session. The in home state students most likely voted in 2012 and the out of state students can't vote in Iowa because they are most likely registered in "their" home state. Net result is ZERO.

The poller does poll a little on the low side with the youth but that might only put Rand at the 4 to 5% mark plus there is no way to tell how those voters are falling in that poll, does it? The poller does leave out Independents but that does not mean such voters are currently swinging Rand's way. I bet Trump is getting those voters.

Listen, the polls suck. They sucked for Ron all the way up until around Nov/Dec. There is plenty of time to turn/change things. In 2011 there were about 20 pre Iowa debates. Many rose up and fell just as fast as they came. Walker was the front runner a few months ago. Trump and Carson look to be that right now. Everything is playing out like in 2011. Bachmann was polling 36% in Iowa around this time. She ended up only getting 5%. Perry came and went. Cain came and went. Newt came and went. At this time in 2011, Perry was the front runner in NH. How did that end up? My point is Trump and Carson will come and go as well. NO ONE ever maintains their lead this far out from Iowa and NH.

 

[acptulsa]

If Paul wants to win a general, as we've said, he'll need to extend his range far beyond the youth, but those actually well entrenched with his party and show up on a regular basis to vote.

Polls that ask the question shows the general election is in the bag for him.

If he wins the nomination, he wins the White House, the GOP wins the White House, and liberty gets a chance. If he doesn't win the nomination, none of those things are likely.

November is not the month we need to worry about.

 

[Brett85]

Rand's campaign is in shambles. He's at 1% nationally in PPP's national poll according to twitter. People are just denying reality at this point. If Rand doesn't do something drastic like fire his entire campaign staff and replace them he's finished.

 

[CPUd]

Rand's campaign is in shambles. He's at 1% nationally in PPP's national poll according to twitter. People are just denying reality at this point. If Rand doesn't do something drastic like fire his entire campaign staff and replace them he's finished.

"Rand needs to fire the campaign staff" was last week's meme, along with "people not showing up for events"

 

[Jan2017]

Despite all of these polls showing 3-5% I've felt the pulse in Iowa and Rand has about 10% of people that will caucus. It really hasn't moved in my opinion over the last several months. He has lost some support to Cruz with some liberty types and Carson has some appeal to more christian conservatives associated with the liberty movement but he has gained some(small) traction with moderates in the state. Things will start to move around a bit with regard to polling after the Sept. 16th debate and things will really intensify around the holidays heading into the new year. This is a long slog.

Bingo . . .
that is the ticket.

I have been in the last two Iowa presidential caucuses - in different counties but both 2008 and 2012 were the first week of January.

Both years the precinct were a majority of Ron Paul supporters - the precinct picks the delegates to go on to the Congressional District level.
Some people will show up just for the straw poll, and the number gets called in to the GOP phone line.

It is all about who shows up on a January night - of the people who will caucus. Rand will have much more people - easily double digits -
at the caucus because of the groundwork laid out by the efforts of the last two Ron Paul campaigns in '08 and '12

 

[Jan2017]

Listen, there is NOT going to be this big voting bloc of students just because college will be in session. The in home state students most likely voted in 2012 and the out of state students can't vote in Iowa because they are most likely registered in "their" home state. Net result is ZERO.

Out-of-state students attending any university/college in Iowa and who will be in state during the November 2016 general election -
may forgo their out-of-state residency for voter registration purposes (if not more -such as establishing in-state tuition rates)

so, I would recommend going to your precinct full of university students who will actually vote for a delegate -
old goats don't go to caucus night all that much and don't participate all that much.

Who cares about polls ? It is all about delegates . . and college students are one way for how you get them - they have the most at stake in elections really.

 

[kbs021]

Out-of-state students attending any university/college in Iowa and who will be in state during the November 2016 general election -
may forgo their out-of-state residency for voter registration purposes (if not more -such as establishing in-state tuition rates)

so, I would recommend going to your precinct full of university students who will actually vote for a delegate -
old goats don't go to caucus night all that much and don't participate all that much.

Who cares about polls ? It is all about delegates . . and college students are one way for how you get them - thay have the most at stake in elections really.

Exactly! This is why this is a big deal! And they will be a decent voting block for sure. Last time they were about 15 percent of the vote and Ron got about half... Voters 17-29 literally gave Ron 7 percent alone in Iowa.. That is huge. Independents made up about a quarter of the vote an Ron got half.. That gave Ron about 12 percent on its own... These voting blocks will make up a large part of the caucus.

 

[LatinsforPaul]

I still say Rand will end up with more than 20% on caucus night in Iowa. Is it enough to win? I don't know but I like our chances.