New CBS Poll (10/11/2015): Rand in 7th, Will Likely Make Debate

carlton said:
I've heard that the percentage of cells used opposed to landlines is grossly disproportionate
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It does not matter. The polls for the most part were very accurate in 2012.

The reason it does not matter is the polling companies do a good job at finding the "likely voters" via their questioning. And giving a good realistic demographic of age group tournout.
 
Rand really, really has to knock it out of the park on this one if he wants to be a legitemate contender.
 
LawnWake said:
Rand really, really has to knock it out of the park on this one if he wants to be a legitemate contender.
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If you don't think Rand is a legitimate contender, than you need to get yourself to Iowa and New Hampshire just to see how well Rand is doing on the ground.
 
LatinsforPaul said:
If you don't think Rand is a legitimate contender, than you need to get yourself to Iowa and New Hampshire just to see how well Rand is doing on the ground.
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Being a legitemate contender is more than just a good ground game. He needs to project strength and electability. He's projecting electability, just not strength. It needs to be a debate performance that legitemizes him in the eyes of the nation. Ground game with a caucus win only means so much. Look how well Ron did at the caucus in both New Hampshire and Iowa? It didn't do him any good in the long run.

I'm not trying to be cynical here. I have hopes for Rand and I think he can turn it around. Thing is though, he really needs to.
 
What people are trying to say is that the Iowa caucus will have him over-perform with our ground game.

If he can stay in the running and come off as legit as anyone else until then, he is in a very good place for how challenging this primary is going to be.
 
For the next week, Rand should answer every interview question about his standing in the race with "oh, I'm polling at about 4%" to help pump up his momentum and the perception that his 'surge' has begun, to ensure the media talking points become geared around that, instead of the 2% number that would exclude him from the next debate. This should be followed up by Rand putting on a masterful performance at the debate, which in turn should control the narrative in his favor for the week or so following the event.
 
I kinda get the feeling that rand is doing a bit of rope-a-dope here.
He knows the media will never be on his side. Let them clamor over the flavor of the month while he gives solid and maybe a bit bland interviews. What he's not doing is hanging himself with a Dean Scream or a Quayle moment. I wonder if we might see a more impassioned Rand later on.
 
If the polls predict virtually every candidate to be the front runner at some point or another, and only one of candidates eventually wins, are the polls accurate?

Even if they are accurate, do they add any value? What is the point of knowing if Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, or Rick Perry, or Michele Bachmann or any other clown is leading this month?

Certainly, it is better to have information than to not have information, but I'm starting to come around to the notion that polls really don't matter, this far out anyway.
 
limequat said:
I kinda get the feeling that rand is doing a bit of rope-a-dope here.
He knows the media will never be on his side. Let them clamor over the flavor of the month while he gives solid and maybe a bit bland interviews. What he's not doing is hanging himself with a Dean Scream or a Quayle moment. I wonder if we might see a more impassioned Rand later on.
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I kind of think you're right. If there's one thing we've seen from Rand over the years, it is that he knows how to draw attention to himself. If he wanted it now, don't you think he'd have it?
 
Fox came out with a poll today that has Rand at 3%. So that means that his overall average is still 3%, so he seems to be pretty safe right now. Kasich and Christie are both down to 3.2% after the Fox poll. It would be nice if Rand could go ahead of them and not be at the end of the stage in the next debate. Huckabee came in at 5% in the Fox poll and raised his average to 3.5%.
 
limequat said:
I kinda get the feeling that rand is doing a bit of rope-a-dope here.
He knows the media will never be on his side. Let them clamor over the flavor of the month while he gives solid and maybe a bit bland interviews. What he's not doing is hanging himself with a Dean Scream or a Quayle moment. I wonder if we might see a more impassioned Rand later on.
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To some extent, I think that's true.

Surely, Rand would rather be higher in the polls; let's not kid ourselves and pretend like he could be at 20% right now if he wanted.

But, it doesn't follow that he's shot all his powder already either; leading the polls now has limited value, much more later.

So, I think the campaign is keeping some tricks up their sleeve for later.

I think we're yet going to see some big action, and ad dollars, especially in the last two or three weeks before IA.
 
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To be honest, it doesn't even matter who stands where if they're anywhere outside of the middle 2-4 positions.

The most important thing is that Rand gets in the debate and fights for more time. If he gets in as 10th and receives more time than 9th place candidate, he's won.

Rand did a decent job at differentiating himself from the rest of the pack last time, if he can amp it up, he will be great. He needs to generate more interest and donations and he proved at the last debate that he could do that.

Now that he has been hitting the other candidates hard on the red line in Syria, he could have a home run at the next debate but don't underestimate everyone else, they'll have good responses. Rand just needs to differentiate.

If anybody lives in SoCal, message me, theres going to be a watch party in Orange County.
 
Millennial Conservatarian said:
If the polls say 4% he is realistically sitting at about 8-9% when the landline factor is removed
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The landline factor is a myth. The polls are pretty accurate, especially when several polls by different companies agree. Rand still has some work to do. The good news is that Christie and Kasich may be exiting stage left.
 
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