New CBS Poll (10/11/2015): Rand in 7th, Will Likely Make Debate

[Brett85]

Yay! How many more polls before the cut off?

Nobody knows for sure. We just know that the cut off is the 21st.

 

[Batman]

The pralines aren't worth it.

 

[69360]

If the polls say 4% he is realistically sitting at about 8-9% when the landline factor is removed

The polls lie!

Oh how little has been learned from the last 2 goes at this.

 

[CPUd]

8-9% is a bit high for a national poll right now. Maybe 6%.

 

[Brett85]

The polls lie!

Oh how little has been learned from the last 2 goes at this.

Yeah, not to mention that most polling organizations include cell phones in their polling. There are some that don't, like Rasmussen and PPP, and those polls do generally have Rand about 1-3% lower than the other polls. But polls like CBS, CNN, ABC, etc. all include cell phones in their polling, and I think the percentage they have Rand at is probably pretty accurate.

 

[carlton]

Yeah, not to mention that most polling organizations include cell phones in their polling. There are some that don't, like Rasmussen and PPP, and those polls do generally have Rand about 1-3% lower than the other polls. But polls like CBS, CNN, ABC, etc. all include cell phones in their polling, and I think the percentage they have Rand at is probably pretty accurate.

I've heard that the percentage of cells used opposed to landlines is grossly disproportionate

 

[Brett85]

I've heard that the percentage of cells used opposed to landlines is grossly disproportionate

Well, Huffington Post uses scientific internet polls that should be very fair to Rand as they generally poll a larger percentage of younger voters, but Rand is about the same in those polls, around 4%.

 

[eleganz]

Gallup Polling has officially dropped out of any primary and presidential polling for 2016 and potentially the future, and they are now sticking to polling the issues. They found that polling has been too inaccurate even though they have better than average polling methodologies.

Polling really doesn't matter this early anyways.

What matters most is who is the typical establishment preferred candidates, because they will have the best chance of winning and those with the best chance of becoming the insurgent anti-establishment candidates.

I'll be happy when Rand breaks 6 into the 7's.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

The polls lie!

Oh how little has been learned from the last 2 goes at this.

Yeah we learned that the polls are mostly accurate, some are very accurate. Nate Silver makes a living from his accurate reading of the polls and foretelling outcomes.

 

[mello]

The next time a reporter asks him if he should drop out since his poll numbers are low, he should respond with something like this:

"Nope, I'm in for the long haul. Let me ask you a question though. I'm polling hire than Christie, Kasich, & Huckabee but I never see reporters ask them that same question, why is that?"

 

[phill4paul]

Didnt rands tax plan of 14.5%, give an exemption to those that make under a certain amount? I forgot what it was, 30k? 50k? If this is true of there being an exemption or a break for the poor, it would look good for him (althought, rationally, everyone should pay equal. Emoionally [which is huge in an election], should think of the poor)

The tax would not kick in until a $15k threshold was passed per adult. Another $5k per child. A married couple with 4 children would not have to pay the 14.5% until they reached the $50k threshold and then only on what is made beyond that. Earned income Credit still applies to lower income families.

https://www.randpaul.com/issue/taxes

 

[r3volution 3.0]

As always..."It's the economy, stupid." He needs to hammer down on his tax plan and what it would do for the average Joe.

Yup

Rand needs to point out that he's going to cut both taxes and spending vastly more than the rest (most of whom have no plan at all).

Fiscal conservatism or bust, that's his route to the nomination.

He needs to go hog wild, I want to hear the name Henry Hazlitt before the night's over.

I want him to call Franklin Roosevelt a bolshevik (well, not really but you get the idea).

 

[erowe1]

If the polls say 4% he is realistically sitting at about 8-9% when the landline factor is removed

Hardly.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

If Cruz was an ice-cream flavor, he'd be praline and dick.

You win the internet

/thread

 

[Stannis]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

 

[Jonderdonk]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

Where's the party?

 

[r3volution 3.0]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

How long have you been involved in this?

*not a snarky question

 

[Brett85]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

We're just celebrating that Rand will likely be in the next GOP debate. One step at a time.

 

[hells_unicorn]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

Debbie Downers need not apply, and in case you haven't noticed, this isn't a celebration, this is a sigh of relief that we're not being relegated to the bottom tier 3 months before the Iowa caucus. You should stick to whining about people not supporting gay marriage, it's one of the few things you seem good at.

 

[Mad Raven]

The polls are so silly. It's name recognition mixed in with a couple positive and negative memories of what a couple people said. It's barely better than the "man on the street" interviews with the clueless idiots who try to make what they think is the most reasonable sounding answer to avoid revealing how clueless they are.

As the elections get closer, people start getting slightly more informed.