Nevada results rolling in now!

[Kregisen]

Would you drop out if you were leading in the polls in 2 of the next 3 states?

Yeah if Gingrich was on the missouri ballot and was polling a little higher in minnesota, Santorum would definitely drop...but like previous people have said, he's well in the lead in missouri since gingrich is missing, and he's 2nd (or is he 1st?) in minnesota.

I can totally see gingrich dropping after these next 3 states and endorsing santorum. I think Gingrich is starting to implode and Santorum may be the new go-to-guy.

 

[opinionatedfool]

lost some ground there

No, we narrowed the gap to 832. I think we were at 844.

 

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

The delegates to the national convention are proporional this time:


If you have information that disputes this other than what you overheard on the ground, then provide a link.

They are only bound on the first vote. If no one can get 1144 on the first vote they then become unbound and can support anyone they want. This is why a brokered convention if Ron can not outright get 1144 is to our advantage (if we diligently due our work).

 

[Liberty74]

I guess the real story is Santorum should drop out.

He's polling first in Minnesota.

He's polling a good second in CO and MO.

Why would he drop out?

 

[specsaregood]

They are only bound on the first vote. If no one can get 1144 on the first vote they then become unbound and can support anyone they want. This is why a brokered convention if Ron can not outright get 1144 is to our advantage (if we diligently due our work).

Right, but the delegates are proportionally bound, yes? to say they aren't based on what might occur in later rounds, is false.

 

[RPit]

The delegates to the national convention are proportional this time:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/NV-R


If you have information that disputes this other than what you overheard on the ground, then provide a link.

If we get more than 2/3 of the Delegates just in terms of RP supporters, we could suspend the rules in State Convention and change all the 'bound/no-bound' rules. And in effect take all delegates as Ron Paul delegates to the national convention UNBOUND.

 

[JoshS]

Would you drop out if you were leading in the polls in 2 of the next 3 states?

With how soft that support and my bank account were with absolutely 0 chance of the presidency, yeah probably.

 

[Kregisen]

This is what I don't understand. If we have 321 precincts left and Ron beats Newt by at least 3 votes in each one, wouldn't that be a net gain of 963 votes -- thus gaining us a victory?

That certainly seems plausible.

* of course we will win by more, perhaps loose... but overall I don't see how we can't gain at least 3 per precinct.

Using your logic, we would only need 9 votes in each precinct in the state to get 1st place. Sure it sounds easy when you put it like that and throw out all the statistics and facts.

After 71% of the precincts in clark county, we've outvoted Gingrich by 400-500 and are still down by 800. We are not going to come close to outvoting him 800 in the final 29% of the county, no matter how you try to spin it.

Come on guys there's a reason we're the ones on a political forum instead of watching fox or cnn....I thought it had to do with IQ, so let's act like it.

 

[phil4truth]

I've consoled myself with 3rd place. Let's look forward...

 

[MozoVote]

I think Gingrich is starting to implode and Santorum may be the new go-to-guy.

I think it is becoming clear that there is not enough oxygen in the nominating contest for both to stay. It's a game of "chicken" between them to see who blinks first. I think it is odds-on that one of them drops out before Super Tuesday.

Maybe not highly odds-on... But moreso than I thought just after Florida.

 

[Savvy Jack]

I am 100% sure they will leave out that last 1% that would put Paul in second!

 

[Edu]

We need to get witnesses to the counts in the questioned precinct by looking up tweets and contacting those people.

 

[sailingaway]

Yeah if Gingrich was on the missouri ballot and was polling a little higher in minnesota, Santorum would definitely drop...but like previous people have said, he's well in the lead in missouri since gingrich is missing, and he's 2nd (or is he 1st?) in minnesota.

I can totally see gingrich dropping after these next 3 states and endorsing santorum. I think Gingrich is starting to implode and Santorum may be the new go-to-guy.

maybe but right now he's running his campaign out of a post office box. Check out an article I posted in opposing candidates.

 

[freneticentropy]

They are only bound on the first vote. If no one can get 1144 on the first vote they then become unbound and can support anyone they want. This is why a brokered convention if Ron can not outright get 1144 is to our advantage (if we diligently due our work).

The problem I see is that in a brokered convention, every single non-paul delegate will coalesce around a single (non-paul) candidate. There is no way in hell the GOP will let Paul win a brokered convention. If you think there are shenanigans now, just wait. It's completely wishful thinking.

 

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

I am 100% sure they will leave out that last 1% that would put Paul in second!

60% of the time it works everytime.

 

[ATXRevolutionary]

No, we narrowed the gap to 832. I think we were at 844.

Those are my counts too.

 

[bluesc]

If we get more than 2/3 of the Delegates just in terms of RP supporters, we could suspend the rules in State Convention and change all the 'bound/no-bound' rules. And in effect take all delegates as Ron Paul delegates to the national convention UNBOUND.

That sounds tasty..

 

[Lord Xar]

Using your logic, we would only need 9 votes in each precinct in the state to get 1st place. Sure it sounds easy when you put it like that and throw out all the statistics and facts.

After 71% of the precincts in clark county, we've outvoted Gingrich by 400-500 and are still down by 800. We are not going to come close to outvoting him 800 in the final 29% of the county, no matter how you try to spin it.

Come on guys there's a reason we're the ones on a political forum instead of watching fox or cnn....I thought it had to do with IQ, so let's act like it.

Don't be a prick. I was looking at a per precinct scenario.

 

[Kregisen]

I think it is becoming clear that there is not enough oxygen in the nominating contest for both to stay. It's a game of "chicken" between them to see who blinks first. I think it is odds-on that one of them drops out before Super Tuesday.

Maybe not highly odds-on... But moreso than I thought just after Florida.

If the 3 states on tuesday turn out as the polls are predicting, I think Gingrich will drop this week and endorse Santorum. For whatever reason Frothy is polling really well in minnesota and missouri. It would take out all of the leftover wind in Newt's sails, and since he spent most of his funds on Florida, I think it would be the perfect time for him to drop.


This might be good for us anyway...with both of them in, Romney could just keep winning state after state. If Newt drops and Santorum starts winning some states, perhaps a brokered convention is more likely?

 

[Jeffster]

With how soft that support and my bank account were with absolutely 0 chance of the presidency, yeah probably.

Well, that's just silly. If the polls end up being wrong and Santorum gets trounced on Tuesday, then I could see him dropping out. But there's certainly no reason for him to do it today, and if he wins one of the Tuesday states (or both), there's definitely no reason to, as his bank account will start to swell immediately from people who give up on Gingrich as their "anti-Romney" choice.