Nevada results rolling in now!

[VegasPatriot]

The delegates to the national convention are proporional this time:
28 National Convention delegates are proportionally bound to Presidential contenders based on today's caucus vote.
A 3.57% threshold is required in order for a contender to be allocated delegates [1 / 28 delegates = 3.57%].
For those candidates receiving 3.57% or more of the vote: The number of delegates = 28 × (candidate's popular vote) ÷ (total statewide vote)

This is correct... sort of... the RNC can penalize any state by reducing the amount of delegates by 50 percent if delegates do not vote proportionally on the first ballot at the national convention. Hmmm...

 

[opinionatedfool]

Using your logic, we would only need 9 votes in each precinct in the state to get 1st place. Sure it sounds easy when you put it like that and throw out all the statistics and facts.

After 71% of the precincts in clark county, we've outvoted Gingrich by 400-500 and are still down by 800. We are not going to come close to outvoting him 800 in the final 29% of the county, no matter how you try to spin it.

Come on guys there's a reason we're the ones on a political forum instead of watching fox or cnn....I thought it had to do with IQ, so let's act like it.

Possibly. They are probably holding the "question" precints until the end. These are probably the ones that could bring Ron Paul to the tipping point if we actually get the votes.

 

[Kregisen]

Don't be a prick. I was looking at a per precinct scenario.

And under a precinct scenario all we need is 9 votes per precinct to get 1st place. Did we get first place? No, we've averaged 3.5 votes per precinct. Saying something like "all we need to do is beat gingrich by 3 votes in EVERY single precinct and we'll beat him!" is just ignorance of statistics. If I came off as a jerk sorry, but you can't deny posting something like that isn't exactly using your head.

 

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

The problem I see is that in a brokered convention, every single non-paul delegate will coalesce around a single (non-paul) candidate. There is no way in hell the GOP will let Paul win a brokered convention. If you think there are shenanigans now, just wait. It's completely wishful thinking.

How are they going to make Paul delegates change their vote? Of course they can try, but I would like to see them try and pull that fraud of their ass in front of thousands of die-hard Paulites + observers. If you know how the convention works it seems implausible. Last I remember it isn't a written ballot process, but a spoken 'who do you pledge for' type of thing. It'll become instantly obvious that the process is entirely voided if they try and pull a stunt like that.

It's time we became the wolf in sheep's clothing. Infiltrate & win.

 

[eleganz]

There is absolutely no way of determining state delegates to the national convention and that is what the media is reporting and they are calculating it based on percentage totals.

You want to get into an argument about proportional delegates in the Nevada Caucus and you don't even know who became delegates in which precincts and how the organization looks like when I do? Yea...ok.

 

[phil4truth]

Without sounding pessimistic, do we honestly believe we will actually win any? If so which ones?

 

[parocks]

if Newt continues at 15.5% and we continue at 20%, we pick up another 115 votes on Newt. Just did the math.

total projected votes in Clark County: 14374

Ron's projected total @ 20%: 14374 x .20 = 2875 votes total

Newt's projected total @15.5%: 14374 x .155 = 2228 votes total

Total differential for Clark County = 2875 - 2228 = +647 for Ron

+647 x 17.8% (votes yet to report) = ron will gain +115 votes on newt with remaining votes.

In the night caucus - we got 183, and Gingrich got 57. That's a pickup of 126 from that one caucus.

 

[Kregisen]

Without sounding pessimistic, do we honestly believe we will actually win any? If so which ones?

Our best shot left is Maine...I don't remember if we have any recent polls there but looks like worst we should get is 2nd. (others closer to the end of list of states might include montana, south dakota, etc but by then it could all be over)

 

[kathy88]

This is taking entirely too long. I feel like I've been at this computer all weekend. Oh wait, I HAVE been at this computer all weekend.

 

[parocks]

That was the Jewish count added!

Aprox 153 for Paul and 42 for Newt

183 and 57

 

[freneticentropy]

How are they going to make Paul delegates change their vote?

They can't. But you assume Paul will have over half the delegates. He won't. Not by a long shot. If he has less than half, he's not the nominee in a brokered convention. End of story.

 

[bluesc]

Without sounding pessimistic, do we honestly believe we will actually win any? If so which ones?

Minnesota, Maine, Washington.

 

[Savvy Jack]

183 and 57

I can't believe I am sitting here with pen and paper...and calculator trying to keep up with this mess.

 

[MozoVote]

Without sounding pessimistic, do we honestly believe we will actually win any? If so which ones?

As bad as 2008 was, Paul did win some delegates, and he had some "stealth" delegates who got nominated under cover. I'm sure he will accumulate more on this campaign.

 

[badger4RP]

Our best shot left is Maine...I don't remember if we have any recent polls there but looks like worst we should get is 2nd. (others closer to the end of list of states might include montana, south dakota, etc but by then it could all be over)

it can't be over until april... simply not enough delegates... not to mention the new proportional states will drag it out even longer. brokered?

 

[Txrose4ever]

This is taking entirely too long. I feel like I've been at this computer all weekend. Oh wait, I HAVE been at this computer all weekend.[/QUOTE


Me too!]

 

[RPit]

it can't be over until april... simply not enough delegates... not to mention the new proportional states will drag it out even longer. brokered?

I'd argue Washington is our best shot.

 

[opinionatedfool]

This is taking entirely too long. I feel like I've been at this computer all weekend. Oh wait, I HAVE been at this computer all weekend.

Lol, same here. I've wasted a lot of time waiting for these results to come in. Sad part is we'll probably get third.

 

[phil4truth]

Our best shot left is Maine...I don't remember if we have any recent polls there but looks like worst we should get is 2nd. (others closer to the end of list of states might include montana, south dakota, etc but by then it could all be over)

Thanks

I was with you regarding Maine for a win but the wind has been knocked out of our sails at the minute and I fear that will result in our inability to win it.

I'm by far a conspiracy head but does it actually take you to be to appreciate that when you are taking on the whole of the establishment and threatening its very existence that they wouldn't rig the elections? They did it twice for Bush.

I believe they are manipulating the results and I think its naive to believe they aren't.

 

[opinionatedfool]

Minnesota, Maine, Washington.

If we don't experience serious voter apathy again. In Nevada it was ridiculous. It makes me so upset that people can't even bother to turn out for something as important as voting for someone like Ron Paul.