Nevada results rolling in now!

[justatrey]

Are the precincts all roughly the same size? If so, its not looking good. If not, then there's a chance if there are some bigger ones remaining.

 

[BrittanySligar]

if Newt continues at 15.5% and we continue at 20%, we pick up another 115 votes on Newt. Just did the math.

total projected votes in Clark County: 14374

Ron's projected total @ 20%: 14374 x .20 = 2875 votes total

Newt's projected total @15.5%: 14374 x .155 = 2228 votes total

Total differential for Clark County = 2875 - 2228 = +647 for Ron

+647 x 17.8% (votes yet to report) = ron will gain +115 votes on newt with remaining votes.

 

[opinionatedfool]

Since Clark county has been getting added we've narrowed the gap with Newt from 7.5% to 3%. Not likely we'll close the other 3% though.

 

[Lord Xar]

we need bigger precincts coming up.. small ones hurt.. we need big ones.. anyone know?

 

[kathy88]

That Ralston guy tweeted a half hour ago that Ron will beat Newt in clark but won't get enough to take 2nd.

It's going to be damn close.

 

[MozoVote]

Even if we squeak into 2nd... that's not gonna tip over the SuperBowl news cycle.

 

[bbwarfield]

They say we got a disproportionate amount of Latino votes... Have those minority heavy districts come in?

 

[opinionatedfool]

if Newt continues at 15.5% and we continue at 20%, we pick up another 115 votes on Newt.

Plus the 130 or so from the final caucus.

 

[Savvy Jack]

Gingrich 21.9% 6,083
Paul 18.9% 5,239
82.2% reporting (1479/1800)

That was the Jewish count added!

Aprox 153 for Paul and 42 for Newt

 

[opinionatedfool]

They say we got a disproportionate amount of Latino votes... Have those minority heavy districts come in?

Where can we see a list of districts that have come in?

 

[Lord Xar]

This is what I don't understand. If we have 321 precincts left and Ron beats Newt by at least 3 votes in each one, wouldn't that be a net gain of 963 votes -- thus gaining us a victory?

That certainly seems plausible.

* of course we will win by more, perhaps loose... but overall I don't see how we can't gain at least 3 per precinct.

 

[BrittanySligar]

That was the Jewish count added!

Aprox 153 for Paul and 42 for Newt

well that sucks

 

[Trigonx]

This is what I don't understand. If we have 321 precincts left and Ron beats Newt by at least 3 votes in each one, wouldn't that be a net gain of 963 votes -- thus gaining us a victory?

That certainly seems plausible.

* of course we will win by more, perhaps loose... but overall I don't see how we can't gain at least 3 per precinct.

that's how i see it.

 

[RonRules]

http://www.lvrj.com/news/clark-county-gop-continues-counting-verifying-caucus-votes-138746289.html

"Clark County GOP officials on Sunday were verifying thousands of GOP caucus ballots under the watchful eyes of attorneys from all four Republican presidential campaigns to ensure all votes were tallied."

I doubt Santorum can afford an attorney.

 

[opinionatedfool]

This is what I don't understand. If we have 321 precincts left and Ron beats Newt by at least 3 votes in each one, wouldn't that be a net gain of 963 votes -- thus gaining us a victory?

That certainly seems plausible.

* of course we will win by more, perhaps loose... but overall I don't see how we can't gain at least 3 per precinct.

Hmm... that does sound plausible. I'm sure the only reason they have been doing all these recounts is because Grinch and Ron are nearly tied.

 

[Maximus]

I know in California, urban districts (especially heavy minority) tend to be posted later than rural... but I mean... this is such a cluster **** I have no idea what'll be posted next

 

[opinionatedfool]

I doubt Santorum can afford an attorney.

HAHA!! Made me laugh. I needed that.

 

[Constitutional Paulicy]

Wish this race for second amounted to more delegates. Regardless of the outcome, the 4 delegates for Dr. Paul, and the 4 for Gingrich will remain the same.

 

[justatrey]

This is what I don't understand. If we have 321 precincts left and Ron beats Newt by at least 3 votes in each one, wouldn't that be a net gain of 963 votes -- thus gaining us a victory?

That certainly seems plausible.

* of course we will win by more, perhaps loose... but overall I don't see how we can't gain at least 3 per precinct.

Your math is right, and theoretically if that happens we'll get second. But the problem is, we're not even picking up 1 vote per precinct on average, let alone 3.

So far we've gained 459 votes on Newt over 754 precincts. But yeah when you put it that way, it's hard to say it's impossible. I guess we would need some precincts that went big for Paul like we saw in the late caucus last night.

 

[ATXRevolutionary]

Another batch just came in.

https://twitter.com/intent/user?scr...al_referer=http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/results