Bingo. Here are the number of days each candidate spent in Iowa and the % of votes they got here on Jan. 3:
76 Romney 25%
75 Huckabee 34%
43 McCain 13%
31 F. Thompson 13%
25 Hunter 0%
22 Giuliani 3%
20 Paul 10%
While time spent here doesn't necessarily result in victory (ask Tommy Thompson), it's nearly impossible to win here without a significant investment of time on the ground. Iowa staff and volunteers were frustrated by this. Also, a lot of momentum was lost after the Ames Straw Poll on August 11 when there was almost no staff left in Iowa. In hindsight, I wish I had stepped up more during this time or made more noise with HQ about it.
We knew too well that no candidate has ever finished below 3rd in Iowa and gone on to win their party's nomination. Was this universally understood? We wanted 1st-3rd SO MUCH so we could give the rest of America more courage to get on board. Ron Paul got 2nd in my precinct and I went to the post-caucus party all excited. Once we finished 5th here we knew we were sailing in uncharted waters. This whole campaign sailed in uncharted waters so we held out hope for a miracle but another 5th in NH just made the odds longer.
In short, we stumbled at the gate in Iowa and couldn't catch up to the pack.
Two clear lessons from my experience here:
- Absolutely, positively nothing happens without leadership. The things we accomplished were a result of effective leadership. Failures either happened when leadership was lacking or the idea was simply bad. I'm proud of the times I provided meaningful leadership, and sorry for the times I didn't. We can all become better leaders.
- There's a limit to what can be accomplished with inexperienced campaign volunteers (like me). Too many people thought posting signs, forwarding emails to their meetup, or making a new youtube was good enough. Too few were willing to do the hard work and make phone calls or work their precinct, actually engaging people in a positive manner about Ron Paul and the issues.
Excellent post. I am not trying to beat a dead horse. JB has already conceded that Dr. Paul needed to visit Iowa more.
But I think it bears repeating how overwhelming the evidence is that this mortally wounded the campaign.
All of the talk about where the money should have been spent and who should have been fired misses the point that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Your statistics actually show that RP had an amazing response, given his lack of time in the state. But after Iowa, only a 1st or 2nd finish in New Hampshire could have revived the campaign.
Every candidate is different and brings different strengths and weaknesses to his campaign. Dr. Paul is a very erudite and thoughtful candidate who appeals to voters with the time and diligence to understand the issues in depth. He is not charismatic. Because his platform challenges many powerful and influential forces in America he can not count on receiving any breaks from the media or party officials. Also, unfortunately, in this age of information overload, the public relies even more on the media to filter the noise and tell them what is relevant. Controversial stances on issues like the war in Iraq can't be communicated effectively in a radio or TV ad; let alone a campaign slogan or yard sign.
Any candidate like Ron Paul is going to have to bypass the media more and rely on retail politics. This is the good, old-fashioned, face-to-face, public appearances, speeches, parades, and baby kissing that is supposed to be obsolete in the Internet Age. How can he do this nationally? He can't. No one can. But he could have done these things in Iowa.
Every national candidate does these things, but relies on the national media to broadcast him doing these things. That is why candidates like Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and John Edwards could afford to spend so much time in Iowa and still run a "national" campaign. Rudy thought he could bypass Iowa and he paid the price as we know. (Ironically, even HE spent more days in Iowa than RP.)
Ron Paul could not rely on the national media to spread his message until he could
force them to recognize him as a contender. So he needed to camp out in Iowa (and New Hampshire) plugging away in relative obscurity until he had punched through to THE PEOPLE, risen in the polls, and made converts in large percentages.
The strength of Ron Paul's campaign is that once the voters became convinced of the truth of his message, they did more than just vote. They became evangelists for his message! They donated and actively campaigned. This was the secret sauce that so frightened his opponents and energized his supporters. But he needed to reach the tipping point, point of combustion, that point of no return that would have propelled his message into the national spotlightand ignited a grassroots that could not be contained. Iowa/New Hampshire was his first and, apparently, only chance to do that.
Or was it?
The reason all of this isn't just academic at this point is that:
1) any future RP presidential candidate is going to need to commit himself to time-consuming retail politics in the early primary states.
2) I think Ron Paul needs to give one last shot at making a splash with THIS campaign.
In my post
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=127868
("How about winning a primary?") I tried to make the case for concentrating the efforts of Ron Paul's campaign on a relatively small state and pulling out all the stops. I used Nebraska as an example and tried to show how he could break through the media blackout with personal appearances and take advantage of the fact that his only remaining opponent is hugely unpopular with a large number of voters in that state. His ads and people canvassing for him could focus on convincing voters that they need to vote for Ron Paul to
send a message to the RNC that conservative Republicans are NOT happy. The significant number of votes that Mike Huckabee has gotten since he dropped out are frustration votes. It is our campaign's fault that those votes have not gone to Ron Paul.
At least we now have the advantage that ALL of the votes in remaining primaries are "wasted". It would be an incredible upset and it is extremely unlikely that he could actually win, but that is the
only type of primary result that would make any kind of impact on this election year.
Unfortunately it appears that Dr. Paul is still committed to diluting his message. He will be spending what little campaign time he has in a state (Pennsylvania) in which he will be lucky to break into the double digits. A guaranteed media non-event and another demoralizing result for his supporters.