This is all really complicated. Entangling alliances, indeed! It's perhaps naive to think that it is just the U.S., Iran, and maybe Israel. MANY countries in the world would stand to profit from our fall. In fact, as we're seeing, many countries are beginning to catch the news with military operations and posturing. I believe there is a sense of an upcoming major, systemic shift in power across the globe, and each player wants to be ready.
Many middle eastern countries are experiencing high inflation problems, but won't move off of the dollar despite their peoples' demands to do so...right after Bush's visit to their countries. This was after their central banks broke with the policies of the U.S. and did not lower interest rates along with us. On the other hand, Iran and Russia are interested in pushing forward with the Oil Bourse on Kish.
Sun Tzu taught to "know yourself AND your enemy" if you wish to be successful most of the time. It is common knowledge that our military has more destructive power at its command than any other nation. No one would be stupid enough to directly confront us, unless an opportunity were to present itself. Even a coalition of nations would be ill-advised to do so.
I fear that a storm is brewing against our power---quite naturally, quite economically---and that many out there will decide to take advantage of it. "When the giant is invulnerable, you must not attack. You must wait for a weakness in his armor".
China now has the ability to directly attack one of our centers of gravity: our communications satellites. Most of our advanced weaponry is dependent on the satellites to operate effectively and in unison. There are plenty of other systems in the sky that we don't have access to, but the other countries do, should ours be "lost".
Our conventional weaponry is worn out and our troops are worn out. We are spread thinly across the globe. Our once premier fighter planes are being grounded after breaking in half because they're 30+ years old. The old adage of "divide and conquer" is just as true today as long ago. With a loss of satellite communication, our troops will essentially BE divided across the world.
We are a bully. There was a time when I would have shouted down anyone who would dare suggest such a thing about America. Now I realize it's true. How else can you describe us? We enforce a dollar on the rest of the world. We exchange devaluing pieces of paper for "treasury bonds" and real manufactured goods and food.
Our treasury bonds are backed "by the full faith and credit of the Government of the United States of America". But that's complete BS when the debt is skyrocketing. There is less and less incentive to "tolerate" our behavior around the world. The opportunity cost of engaging us is becoming more and more attractive by comparison. The world is realizing that it can consume its own goods, and it has already begun doing so.
Our economy is built on a consumption "house of cards". The fragility has grown exponentially in the last decade. We don't have an industrial base like we used to. We're living LITERALLY on borrowed money, and one might say, on borrowed time. We could not possibly react to and rally behind a massive war effort as we were able to in the past. We don't have much of the infrastructure.
If there were ever a time when we in the United States were vulnerable to attack, it is now. And you can bet that if we ordinary Americans are able to recognize this fact, then the strategists in other nations are, and have.
I hope that this is all complete lunacy, but I don't have confidence in that hope. I think that 2008 will be a year for the history books...in many many ways.