Do we get a suprise ron paul surge in the s.c. primaries tomorrow?

[RonPaul101.com]

So where is our best chance of picking up a congressional district? CD4, CD5...?

 

[trey4sports]

Newt winning is the worst thing we could ask for.

I understand the logic that the defenders of the "Newt-winning-stops-Romney-strategy" are using but it's not the right course in my opinion. Just look at the narrative the campaign is trying to create. They clearly want this to be a Romney VS. Paul race ASAP and I believe they are correct.

 

[archangel689]

I think Gingrich winning is horrible for us. He'll stay in the race longer if he does. We want him to drop out, his campaign is dead without the momentum that sc would generate, so I hope he implodes or gets second. I think this is the grinch's last stand and after this he tanks.

 

[ohgodno]

So where is our best chance of picking up a congressional district? CD4, CD5...?

A lot of the whistle-stop tour is in CD1 - who knows - wherever the most independents are.

I'm less concerned about the total % of the vote and more concerned about picking up delegates. I'll take 18% of the vote with picking up 2 delegates over 32% of the vote and getting no delegates.

Remember the only thing that matters in the long run is delegates - not % of the vote. Don't fall into the media's dick-measuring beauty contest.

 

[tbone717]

I think Gingrich winning is horrible for us. He'll stay in the race longer if he does. We want him to drop out, so I hope he implodes or gets second.

If Newt wins SC, I don't think he can pull off a win in FL, so he will essentially be done before the four caucus states. And we know he does not have the organization to compete in caucus states.

 

[Created4]

Newt winning is the worst thing we could ask for.

I understand the logic that the defenders of the "Newt-winning-stops-Romney-strategy" are using but it's not the right course in my opinion. Just look at the narrative the campaign is trying to create. They clearly want this to be a Romney VS. Paul race ASAP and I believe they are correct.

I have to agree with this. I get the feeling that there are a lot of Washington insiders just waiting to see if Gingrich is viable, and if he pulls out a win in SC, his coffers could fill up very quickly and then he is in it for the long haul. Not good.

 

[trey4sports]

If Newt wins SC, I don't think he can pull off a win in FL, so he will essentially be done before the four caucus states. And we know he does not have the organization to compete in caucus states.

if he wins S.C. I would argue that he more than likely COULD win FL and very well could get enough of a media bounce to do well in the caucus states.

 

[doctorfunk]

If Mitt wins and the media calls it, it may benefit us. Strong grassroots support will still likely turn out while those voting for Romney only because he's the strongest will be more inclined to stay home.

 

[Lishy]

I'm not too optimistic. I'm angry about it, but I've lost optimism for this race -.-

 

[Created4]

if he wins S.C. I would argue that he more than likely COULD win FL and very well could get enough of a media bounce to do well in the caucus states.

Agreed. I think a lot of Washington elites would love to see him make it (and now the Texas governor also), so a win could bring in millions of dollars towards his campaign.

 

[tbone717]

if he wins S.C. I would argue that he more than likely COULD win FL and very well could get enough of a media bounce to do well in the caucus states.

He is around 18 points back in FL. That is a hell of a bounce, and Romney will go after him hard. It could happen, but I just don't see it being possible. Remember too, caucus states require organization. Newt does not have the money or the boots on the ground for that.

 

[wgadget]

if he wins S.C. I would argue that he more than likely COULD win FL and very well could get enough of a media bounce to do well in the caucus states.

I think Swingrich will do well in SC and FL, only because they border his home state of GA.

The guy is a creep and could NEVER beat Obama.

 

[KingRobbStark]

This should bump us a couple of points. Enough not to lagg too much behind Newt and Romney.

 

[Created4]

He is around 18 points back in FL. That is a hell of a bounce, and Romney will go after him hard. It could happen, but I just don't see it being possible. Remember too, caucus states require organization. Newt does not have the money or the boots on the ground for that.

But he could get that very quickly if enough cash came in after a SC win. This guy is dangerous, and has a lot of friends.

 

[cornell]

Head-to-head polling between Romney and Paul is currently something like 75-25.

We should want Gingrich in as long as possible, or at least until we start winning some small caucuses or primaries to get that number way up before it really is a 2-man race.

 

[archangel689]

the only thing good about a grinch win is that those delegates wouldnt go to romney.... but who do you think those delegates are going to go to when grinch drops out? If we're in it to win, we're better off with grinch dropping out earlier than later.

 

[tajitj]

I am not sure what the official campaign has in mind in making this a Mitt vs Paul race.

We will get more delegates that way based purely on we become the anti Romney, but I would like to see this go on and have the big three neocons split up the vote and Paul migh actually get some wins in the caucus states.

 

[EBounding]

I think Gingrich winning is horrible for us. He'll stay in the race longer if he does. We want him to drop out, his campaign is dead without the momentum that sc would generate, so I hope he implodes or gets second. I think this is the grinch's last stand and after this he tanks.

While I agree that Gingrich winning is bad for us, I just think Romney winning is even worse since it would make him look "inevitable". Even if everyone else dropped out, Paul would be seen as a pesky "spoiler" who's not serious about beating Obama. He would be marginalized even more so and the voters would simply accept Romney.

 

[tbone717]

Agreed. I think a lot of Washington elites would love to see him make it (and now the Texas governor also), so a win could bring in millions of dollars towards his campaign.

I don't know. I just don't see the money coming into Newt. Too many skeletons. You don't drop 2500 bucks on a guy who has that much potential baggage.

 

[rb3b3]

urghhh this might be an annoying question, but im hearing lots of comparisons to the reagan nominaton way back when, can anyone tell me if in his days how reagan did in south carolina?? im sorry everyone, like i said i never paid attention to politcs not even in school it just always bored me, and i really could never stomach a politcian as i am a GREAT judge of character so politics have always turned me off, but i am very very interested now because of how much i love ron paul. sorry for asking so many questions i dont expect anyone to give me a history lesson. ps i really appreciate all of you helping me learn everyday. thank you